--- title: "由於霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖持續，印度盧比可能會承受壓力" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283260047.md" description: "印度盧比在四月份對美元升值了 2.1%，但由於高企的原油價格和霍爾木茲海峽的持續封鎖，預計將面臨貶值壓力。在三月份下跌 4% 後，盧比趨於穩定，但預計本週將開盤在 93 左右。分析師預測，未來幾周盧比將在 92 到 93.5 之間波動，受外資流出和經常賬户赤字擴大影響。經濟學家預測，到 2026-27 年，當前賬户赤字將達到 GDP 的 1.6%，並可能出現 250 億美元的國際收支赤字" datetime: "2026-04-19T02:58:56.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283260047.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283260047.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283260047.md) --- # 由於霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖持續，印度盧比可能會承受壓力 The rupee, which has appreciated 2.1 per cent against the dollar so far in April, is likely to face depreciation pressure this week, tracking elevated crude oil prices, with efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz yet to yield results.   After depreciating by more than 4 per cent in March — prompting regulatory measures such as capping banks’ open positions in the onshore derivatives market and opening a dollar window for oil companies — the currency stabilised.   Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was at a standstill on Sunday, news agency Reuters reported, after Iran reasserted control over the strategic waterway, a key route for global energy supply, days before a fragile ceasefire with the US was set to expire.   “As things stand, the rupee is expected to open around or slightly below 93 on Monday, largely confined within the 92-93 range,” said V R C Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank.    The Indian unit closed at 92.93 per dollar on Friday, up 0.3 per cent from the previous close of 93.2 per dollar.   “We expect emerging-market (EM) currencies to underperform amid dollar weakness and the rupee to underperform among EM currencies. We see a 92-93.5 range for the rupee over the next six weeks,” IFA Global said in a report.   Apart from elevated oil prices, foreign fund outflows and a widening current account deficit (CAD) will exert pressure on the Indian unit. “Any short-term movement will remain sensitive to overnight developments, as even a single headline or X post can shift sentiment. Unless we see a meaningful reversal in capital flows and stronger underlying fundamentals, further sustained appreciation of the rupee appears unlikely in the near term,” Reddy said.   Economists have projected CAD to widen to 1.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026–27, with a likely balance of payments deficit of $25 billion. ### 相關股票 - [NFTY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NFTY.US.md) - [INDY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDY.US.md) - [INDH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDH.US.md) - [IND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IND.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDA.US.md) - [TRI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TRI.US.md) - [TMZ.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TMZ.AU.md) - [A50.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/A50.SG.md) - [BSVN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BSVN.US.md) - [VBNK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VBNK.US.md) - [DGZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DGZ.US.md) - [IFRA.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IFRA.AU.md) - [GLBE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GLBE.US.md) - [08487.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/08487.HK.md) - [NA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NA.US.md) - [XNCR.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XNCR.US.md) - [6962.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/6962.JP.md) - [CXAI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CXAI.US.md) - [CXAIW.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CXAIW.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [印度大砍柴油與航空燃料出口税 應對油價飆升壓力](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284840162.md) - [印度為環保推汽油加乙醇 意外加劇缺水危機](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284728686.md) - [中東危機拖累芬蘭景氣 GDP 成長恐剩 0.6%](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284751192.md) - [義大利赤字逾 GDP3% 無法脱離歐盟監管程序](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283665021.md) - [美關税政策調整或令赤字增 1.1 萬億美元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284276737.md)