<p>報告指出，日本央行可能會在下週的四月會議上暫停加息，因為中東衝突帶來的不確定性使得政策制定者不願意急於做出決定。消息人士稱，央行傾向於維持政策不變，以評估衝突帶來的影響程度。</p>
<p>儘管如此，他們指出，最終決定可能會非常接近，仍然取決於未來一週美伊和平談判的進展。</p>
<p>其中一位消息人士表示，由於市場已經消化了本月加息的可能性，因此日本央行不太可能採取行動。作為背景，目前交易員僅預計本月加息的概率約為 15%。然而，到六月會議時，這一概率會大幅回升至約 57%。</p>
<p>消息人士還表示，即使央行這次選擇不加息，他們仍可能希望發出信號，表明在通脹壓力加大的情況下，他們準備在六月採取行動。</p>
<p>春季工資談判的結果已經是一個積極因素，但飆升的油價將進一步加大日本經濟的價格壓力。然而，通脹的組合是日本央行需要關注的。他們之前一直相當堅持不想對成本推動型通脹做出過度反應，而這正是經濟在油價飆升的情況下將會經歷的情況。</p>

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<p>日本銀行預計將在四月份維持貨幣政策不變，原因是中東衝突帶來的不確定性。消息人士表示，中央銀行對加息持謹慎態度，目前市場對加息的概率約為 15%，到六月份這一概率將增加到 57%。儘管油價上漲可能帶來通脹壓力，但日本銀行旨在避免對成本推動型通脹做出過於強烈的反應。最終決定將取決於美伊和平談判的進展以及春季工資談判的結果</p>

<p>The report says that the BOJ is likely to hold off from raising interest rates in April next week, as heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict continues to put policymakers off from wanting to rush a decision. The sources claim that the central bank is leaning towards keeping policy unchanged in order to size up the magnitude of the fallout from the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告指出，日本央行可能會在下週的四月會議上暫停加息，因為中東衝突帶來的不確定性使得政策制定者不願意急於做出決定。消息人士稱，央行傾向於維持政策不變，以評估衝突帶來的影響程度。</p>
</div><p>That being said, they note that the final decision may be a close call and is still dependent on what becomes of US-Iran peace talks in the week ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，他們指出，最終決定可能會非常接近，仍然取決於未來一週美伊和平談判的進展。</p>
</div><p>One of the sources did say that the BOJ is not likely to act given how markets have already priced out chances of a rate hike for this month. For some context, traders are just pricing in ~15% odds of a rate hike as of today. However, those odds jump do jump back up quite a bit to ~57% by the time we get to the June meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一位消息人士表示，由於市場已經消化了本月加息的可能性，因此日本央行不太可能採取行動。作為背景，目前交易員僅預計本月加息的概率約為 15%。然而，到六月會議時，這一概率會大幅回升至約 57%。</p>
</div><p>The sources also say that even if the central bank were to hold off on rates hikes this time around, they might still want to signal that they are ready to act as soon as June in the wake of mounting inflation pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消息人士還表示，即使央行這次選擇不加息，他們仍可能希望發出信號，表明在通脹壓力加大的情況下，他們準備在六月採取行動。</p>
</div><p>The outcome of the spring wage negotiations was already a positive factor but surging oil prices will just add to mounting price pressures for the Japanese economy. However, the mix of inflation is something that the BOJ will have to be mindful of. They have previously been rather adamant to not want to react too much to cost-push inflation, which is precisely what the economy will experience amid surging oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>春季工資談判的結果已經是一個積極因素，但飆升的油價將進一步加大日本經濟的價格壓力。然而，通脹的組合是日本央行需要關注的。他們之前一直相當堅持不想對成本推動型通脹做出過度反應，而這正是經濟在油價飆升的情況下將會經歷的情況。</p>
</div>

BOJ likely to keep monetary policy unchanged in April - report

- 日本央行可能在四月會議上暫停加息，受中東衝突影響。  
- 消息人士稱，政策制定者傾向於評估衝突影響，決定取決於美伊談判進展。  
- 儘管市場已消化加息可能性，但通脹壓力可能促使央行在六月採取行動。

報告指出，日本央行可能在四月份保持貨幣政策不變