--- title: "第一季度的增長奠定了堅實的基礎，但高能源價格構成威脅：滙豐" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283440409.md" description: "滙豐報告稱，越南第一季度增長率為 7.8%，為 16 年來最高，主要受到強勁貿易和服務業的推動。然而，由於中東衝突導致的高能源價格對經濟擴張構成風險。政府正在採取措施穩定燃料價格，包括減税和增加燃料儲備。滙豐強調需要進一步投資能源部門以實現可持續增長，並建議提供財政支持以減輕對家庭和企業的影響" datetime: "2026-04-21T05:07:19.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283440409.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283440409.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283440409.md) --- # 第一季度的增長奠定了堅實的基礎，但高能源價格構成威脅：滙豐 Yun Liu, senior ASEAN economist at HSBC Global Investment Research, told _VnEpxress International_: "Trade continues to boom, driven by the strong performance in electronics sector. Services also have flourished, led by improving private consumption and increasing tourists." Q1 growth this year has been the highest in 16 years, as trade rose 23% to US$249.5 billion, according to the General Statistics Office. Strong consumer demand during the Lunar New Year and a record 6.76 million foreign tourist arrivals bolstered growth of 8.18% in the services sector. But the Middle East conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran, which began at the end of February, threatens to undermine Vietnam’s efforts to achieve 10% growth this year. An employee refills a vehicle at a fuel station in HCMC. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran The price of the country’s most popular fuel, RON95, is up almost 26%, putting pressure on the government to control inflation. "The biggest downside risk to growth is energy prices staying higher for longer," Liu warned. "As Vietnam is so dependent on both crude oil and gas imports from the Middle East as well as sensitive to commodity price swings, this may ultimately pose a significant downside risk to global trade and household demand." The government has made efforts to stabilize the fuel market, allocating VND8 trillion (US$304 million) as an advance to the fuel subsidy fund. Lawmakers have also waived environmental protection tax, value-added tax and special consumption tax on fuel between April 16 and June 30. These waivers are expected to cost the government VND7.3 trillion a month. It has increased the nation’s fuel reserves from 15 to 26 days’ requirements. In the long run the government aims to establish a reserve of at least 90 days’ worth of net imports by 2030. Short-term supply is guaranteed since the country’s two refineries, at Dung Quat and Nghi Son, have sufficient crude stocks to maintain production through April, Minister of Industry and Trade Le Manh Hung said recently. But Liu said further investment in the energy sector is needed to ensure sustainable economic growth. "It is necessary to use some fiscal support to cushion the impact for households and businesses, but in the long term, Vietnam needs a strategy for energy security and energy transformation." ### 相關股票 - [HSBC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [00005.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/00005.HK.md) - [VNM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VNM.US.md) - [HSBH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/HSBH.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [滙豐舉行股東會 散户稱最緊要派息 對股價沒太大感覺「想總部搬番嚟香港」](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283459074.md) - [滙控艾橋智：沒有恢復以股代息的計劃，在伊朗沒有任何業務](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283479073.md) - [滙豐重申對中東投資和承諾完全沒有改變](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282947555.md) - [【HSBC 股東會】滙控主席：仍睇好中東發展會繼續投資](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283490472.md) - [滙豐擬售印尼零售銀行業務 彭博︰華僑銀行成優先買家](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283098985.md)