--- title: "聯合國將印度 2026 財年的增長預測下調至 6.4%，並指出存在外部風險" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283494942.md" description: "聯合國亞太經濟社會委員會（ESCAP）將印度 2026 財年的經濟增長預測下調至 6.4%，原因是外部風險上升。報告強調了地緣政治緊張局勢，特別是在西亞，可能導致商品價格和通貨膨脹上升。印度 2026 年的通貨膨脹預測現為 4.4%，高於之前的 4%。報告警告稱，由於全球衝擊，可能會出現失業和商業信心減弱的情況。它建議加強國內需求和生產力，同時強調對弱勢羣體的社會保護的重要性" datetime: "2026-04-21T03:57:53.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283494942.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283494942.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283494942.md) --- # 聯合國將印度 2026 財年的增長預測下調至 6.4%，並指出存在外部風險 India’s economic growth forecast for 2026 has been downgraded to 6.4 per cent by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), with the latest report on Tuesday flagging rising external risks to the outlook. India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected at 6.4 per cent in 2026, lower than the 6.6 per cent forecast in the 2025 edition, while growth is estimated at 7.4 per cent in 2025 and 6.6 per cent in 2027, according to the report titled Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026 (ESCAP). The downgrade comes against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which the report said could trigger higher commodity prices, increased freight costs, and supply chain disruptions. These developments are expected to push up inflation and interest rates, while weakening global demand for goods and services, affecting exports, remittances, and tourism flows. The report projected India’s inflation at 4.4 per cent in 2026, higher than the 4 per cent forecast for 2026 in the 2025 edition, indicating an upward revision in price pressures. It also recorded India’s inflation at 2.3 per cent in 2025 and pegged it at 4.3 per cent in 2027. The report noted that such global shocks could also impact employment and investment sentiment, with job losses and weaker business confidence weighing on consumption and growth. It identified further escalation of the Middle East conflict, renewed global trade tensions, and financial market volatility linked to the technology sector as three key downside risks to the outlook. “India’s economic activities moderated in the second half of 2025 as exports to the United States declined by 25 per cent following the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs in August 2025. The services sector remained a key growth driver,” the report said. Equity markets and currencies in India have come under pressure since the onset of the conflict, with stock indices falling by 5–16 per cent and the rupee depreciating by up to 1.5 per cent against the US dollar amid heightened global uncertainty, the report showed. Beyond external risks, the report highlighted structural labour market challenges across the region. It stated that manufacturing employment remains below pre-pandemic levels across many economies in Asia and the Pacific, even as services jobs have risen. “In many economies, manufacturing employment has not yet recovered from pre-pandemic levels, while that in information services has surged. Similarly, the youth unemployment rate stayed above the overall rate. The impact of the increase in trade protectionism and the recent conflict in the Middle East will disproportionately hurt female workers, who are the backbone of labour-intensive, export-oriented industries, as well as informal workers, who have limited access to social protection,” the report said. The report recommended economies such as India strengthen domestic demand and productivity, with a focus on improving employment, skilling, and job quality, while expanding social protection for vulnerable groups. It also called for better digital and infrastructure connectivity, easier access to finance, and careful policy calibration during the energy transition to balance growth with inflation and fiscal risks. It highlighted India’s production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes as a key policy tool to scale up domestic manufacturing in sectors such as solar modules, batteries, and green hydrogen, supporting industrial growth alongside the energy transition. For the broader region, ESCAP projected that economic growth across developing Asia-Pacific economies will slow to 4 per cent in 2026, down from 4.6 per cent in 2025 and 4.8 per cent in 2024, with only a modest recovery expected thereafter. ### 相關股票 - [03404.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03404.HK.md) - [NFTY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NFTY.US.md) - [02836.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02836.HK.md) - [NDIA.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NDIA.AU.md) - [FLIN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FLIN.US.md) - [PIN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PIN.US.md) - [IND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IND.US.md) - [03184.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03184.HK.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDA.US.md) - [EPI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EPI.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [印度為穩定盧比匯率絞儘腦汁 據悉在討論加息、發美元債等多種方案](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287178035.md) - [知情人士：印度考慮下調外資債券投資相關税負](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286385065.md) - [亞洲大米市場：印度出口報價持穩，市場需求疲軟](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286490582.md) - [印度官員稱需評估國有油企虧損承受力，強調國內能源儲備充足](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286051867.md) - [CBRE 報告稱，印度以最高的房地產收益率在亞太地區中領先同行](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287191701.md)