--- title: "Bernstein 在給總理的公開信中指出了印度經濟增長的結構性風險" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283834635.md" description: "全球經紀公司 Bernstein 對印度的增長結構性風險表示擔憂，警告稱如果不解決關鍵政策問題，該國可能會表現不佳。在給總理的公開信中，Bernstein 強調了基礎設施、創新和就業方面的缺口，特別是在人工智能進步的背景下。報告警告不要假設近期的經濟增長將持續，並批評不斷上升的福利支出可能會成為長期增長的障礙。Bernstein 強調需要採取果斷的政策行動，以使印度的雄心與必要的投資相一致，特別是在研發方面，這一領域的投入與全球標準相比仍然較低" datetime: "2026-04-23T04:38:17.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283834635.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283834635.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283834635.md) --- # Bernstein 在給總理的公開信中指出了印度經濟增長的結構性風險 Global brokerage Bernstein has flagged a series of structural risks to India’s growth trajectory, cautioning that the country could “under-deliver on its potential” unless key policy bottlenecks are addressed. The India strategy note — styled as an ‘open letter to the Prime Minister’ — marks a reprise of a similar exercise undertaken by the brokerage in 2019, when it had outlined six priorities for the government following the general elections. “That was a different world: pre-Covid, pre-Gen AI, with trade integration largely intact and de-globalisation still an academic concern,” said Bernstein strategists Venugopal Garre and Nikhil Arela, adding that “many of the underlying constraints that have historically limited India’s rise remain unresolved”. While the format is uncommon, market participants said such notes are typically aimed at investors rather than policymakers. “This is essentially a strategy note packaged differently. Brokerages use such formats to frame long-term risks and opportunities for global investors,” said a Mumbai-based market strategist. Bernstein acknowledged that India has made the “correct choice” by focusing on capital expenditure, which has supported macro stability and earnings growth. However, it warned against extrapolating recent gains. “If the last six years demonstrate what India can do when policy is aligned, they also carry a risk: the temptation to extrapolate recent success,” the report said. The brokerage highlighted gaps in infrastructure, innovation capacity, and preparedness for emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI). A central concern flagged in the report is employment, especially in the context of rapid advances in AI. “Gen AI now challenges that template… A meaningful share of the roles that lifted this cohort are directly exposed to automation,” it said. India risks becoming “a user of these technologies without capturing a commensurate share of the upside,” the brokerage warned. Market experts said this reflects a growing concern among global investors, given the sharp sell-off in domestic IT companies seen this year. Bernstein has struck a cautious note on manufacturing, saying India’s gains from the China+1 shift have been limited and employment remains concentrated in low-productivity segments. “India’s limited gains from the China+1 shift highlight the time required to build capabilities, but also the cost of delayed action. Supply chains remain shallow, talent in advanced manufacturing is constrained, and execution timelines are often slower than competing economies,” wrote Garre and Arela. On agriculture, it pointed to structural inefficiencies, noting that nearly half the workforce depends on a sector contributing a much smaller share to GDP, and called for renewed reforms and higher investment in irrigation and storage. Bernstein also flagged rising welfare spending as a potential drag on long-term growth. “A rupee locked into broad, politically timed cash schemes is a rupee not building roads… or R&D,” it said. While acknowledging that cash transfers support consumption, the report warned that a sustained shift towards such schemes could “lock” the economy into a “low-productivity equilibrium, where a rising share of taxes funds consumption today rather than capabilities for tomorrow.” Market participants said this reflects a broader debate on fiscal priorities around revenue spending crowding out investment-led growth, especially at the state level. Bernstein said India’s ambitions continue to outpace its investments, with R&D spending at around 0.6–0.7 per cent of GDP, well below global benchmarks. “Innovation ecosystems require sustained capital, high-quality talent, and institutional rigour,” the brokerage said. Across sectors — from energy and transport to R&D and taxation — the brokerage called for more decisive policy action, arguing that gradualism may no longer suffice. Market observers noted that the letter format allows the brokerage to present a candid, top-down critique of India’s growth model while engaging a global investor audience. “This is less about advising the government and more about signalling to investors where the risks are,” said a senior market expert. After being among the most favoured markets in the emerging-market pack in 2024, India has recently slipped down the pecking order for foreign brokerages, which are turning more constructive on markets such as South Korea and Taiwan — seen as key beneficiaries of the AI supply chain — and offering relatively more attractive valuations. “India does not lack capital, talent, or ambition. What it requires now is a sharper willingness to take difficult decisions early,” the report said. It added that the “window to act is still open, but it is narrowing.” > **Reality Check** > > · India risks “under-delivering on its potential” if longstanding constraints remain unaddressed. > > · AI could disrupt India’s employment engine; country at risk of becoming a consumer rather than creator > > · Manufacturing sector unlikely to absorb surplus labour at scale > > · Limited gains from the China+1 shift, employment concentrated in low-productivity segments > > · Rising cash transfer schemes crowding out productive investment > > · R&D spending (~0.6–0.7% of GDP) remains well below global benchmarks ### 相關股票 - [PIN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PIN.US.md) - [IND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IND.US.md) - [FLIN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FLIN.US.md) - [AB.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AB.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [人工智能衝擊高薪 IT 崗位，印度經濟增長隱憂凸顯](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284878909.md) - [滙豐上調思科評級至「買入」，看好 AI 基礎設施需求動能](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286586197.md) - [美數碼資產法案補足監管短板 專家稱確定性為基礎設施 | Hashkey 研究院](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286542777.md) - [兆美元流入 AI 基建 光互聯拿多少？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286865274.md) - [Loop Capital：AI 基礎設施熱潮將推動 Vertiv Holdings 強勁增長](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286608733.md)