--- title: "Mercuria、高盛和摩根大通預測鋁市場將遭遇重大沖擊" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283907902.md" description: "來自 Mercuria、Goldman 和摩根大通的分析師們對全球鋁市場的重大供應衝擊發出了警報，這主要是由於海灣地區的干擾。Mercuria 的 Nick Snowdon 將其形容為自 2000 年以來基本金屬中最大的供應衝擊，鋁價已達到四年來的最高點。海灣地區佔全球供應的 9%，預計到年底將面臨 200 萬噸的潛在赤字，而這一情況因美伊衝突而加劇。分析師警告稱，依賴中東鋁材的美國和歐洲對此次危機特別脆弱" datetime: "2026-04-23T23:57:21.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283907902.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283907902.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283907902.md) --- # Mercuria、高盛和摩根大通預測鋁市場將遭遇重大沖擊 Analysts at Mercuria, the Geneva-based Swiss commodities trading firm, are **sounding the alarm on the global aluminum market** after severe disruptions in the Gulf region, adding to a growing list of trading desks and research teams warning of a deepening supply shock. "**The scale of the supply shock we're seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000** era," Mercuria commodities analyst Nick Snowdon told Reuters on the sidelines of the_Financial Times Commodities Global Summit_ in Lausanne, Switzerland. Snowdon then told Reuters, **"We are already in a 'black swan' event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale."** **** Mercuria is a Swiss commodities trading house based in Geneva. Its traders sell, ship, store, and finance physical commodities across markets such as oil, gas, power, LNG, and metals. Snowdon's alarm over the global aluminum market is mainly because the Gulf region accounts for 9% of world supply, and with major smelters already declaring force majeure and the Hormuz chokepoint blocked for much of this week, this is shaping up to be one of the most memorable shocks in the metal market in decades. Aluminum prices have already surged to a four-year high, and Mercuria estimates the market could face at least a 2 million-ton deficit by the end of the year, potentially worse if the US-Iran conflict drags on and alumina flows through Hormuz chokepoint remain heavily constrained. "**That shortfall compares with about 1.5 million tons of visible inventory and just over 3 million tons of total global stock, including non-visible units, leaving the market with limited buffers**," Snowdon said, adding that a larger deficit is possible. He warned that the most **exposed supply chains to the Gulf shock are in the US and Europe**. He noted both regions rely heavily on Middle Eastern aluminum imports and **already have low stockpiles**. Last week, JPMorgan analysts warned that the **aluminum market is descending into a black hole**, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term. Separately, Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, "**Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock**: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday. That should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide." From **Mercuria to JPM to Goldman, traders and analysts at these mega institutions are all warning of a metal supply shock**, with major risks that could curtail the production of anything from planes to tanks to cars and evenpower infrastructure. ### 相關股票 - [601600.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/601600.CN.md) - [600219.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/600219.CN.md) - [01378.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/01378.HK.md) - [AA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AA.US.md) - [02600.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02600.HK.md) - [CENX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CENX.US.md) - [KALU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/KALU.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [《大手成交》中國宏橋一手約 106 萬股非自動對盤，涉 3745 萬](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283779240.md) - [中東戰火燒向製造業！日本陷入斷鋁危機 豐田等車企面臨減產](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283431805.md) - [英國縮減赤字有成 專家示警中東戰爭恐推升舉債成本](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283838463.md) - [義大利赤字逾 GDP3% 無法脱離歐盟監管程序](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283665021.md) - [英特爾強勢上攻 看空分析師態度也轉變](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283565032.md)