<p>[新加坡] 自伊朗戰爭開始以來，泰銖在亞洲表現最差，戰略家表示，隨着衝突推高油價，泰銖面臨進一步貶值的風險。</p>
<p>根據三菱 UFJ 銀行的説法，考慮到該國的能源進口規模，泰銖可能會再次承受壓力。馬來亞銀行表示，泰國的經常賬户季節性模式將在第二季度對貨幣產生壓力。</p>
<p>自戰爭於 2 月底開始以來，泰銖已經貶值超過 4%，在亞洲僅次於菲律賓比索。隨着美伊停火的開始，泰銖在 4 月初回升了一些，但隨着雙方談判停滯，它又開始下跌。</p>
<p>三菱 UFJ 銀行新加坡外匯策略師 Lloyd Chan 表示：“考慮到泰國在亞洲地區的石油和天然氣貿易淨赤字最大，我們仍然看到泰銖下行的風險。我們注意到美國對伊朗港口的封鎖仍在持續，這將繼續擾亂能源流動。”</p>
<p>Chan 表示，泰銖在本季度可能會貶值至每美元 33.90，這將使貨幣達到自 2025 年 4 月以來的最低水平。</p>
<h2>最脆弱</h2>
<p>根據野村全球經濟學的研究，泰銖特別脆弱，因為該國在亞洲對能源成本的上漲最為敏感，研究考慮了化石燃料在總能源供應中的佔比和能源貿易平衡等因素。</p>
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<p>新加坡馬來亞銀行的外匯策略師 Alan Lau 表示：“油價上漲和季節性經常賬户收窄使我們在第二季度對泰銖保持謹慎。” 他表示，假設油價不會大幅下跌，泰銖預計將在本季度結束時達到每美元 32.50。</p>
<p>馬來亞銀行的預測與彭博社調查的分析師中位數估計相符，預計到 6 月底將略微下降，當前水平約為每美元 32.40。</p>
<p>泰國的經常賬户數據將於週四公佈，將初步反映油價飆升的影響。2 月份的數據曾顯示盈餘意外改善，但這次似乎沒有理由樂觀。</p>
<p>另見</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>泰國黃金交易限制生效，政府控制泰銖</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>泰國 40 億美元的稻米出口因泰銖升值而面臨壓力</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/379700cf3771f857986fdcace860d1ae44bb1887cd0254e0106e4c5b4556acbd/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/379700cf3771f857986fdcace860d1ae44bb1887cd0254e0106e4c5b4556acbd/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>泰國在美國將其列入貨幣觀察名單後，暗示干預泰銖的空間</h3>
<p>如果戰爭持續，今年經濟增長可能放緩至約 1.3%，而衝突前的預估為 1.9%，泰國銀行行長 Vitai Ratanakorn 本月表示。中央銀行還表示，將 “儘可能長時間” 不加息以支持經濟，儘管通脹預計將加速。</p>
<p>香港法國農業信貸銀行的新興市場策略師 Jeffrey Zhang 表示：“泰國銀行已經下調了增長預期，並指出對經常賬户的負面影響，這對中期的泰銖是看跌的。”</p>
<p>他説，泰銖可能在年末貶值至每美元 33。彭博社</p>
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西方石油

能源業 ETF - SPDR

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

泰國股市指數 MSCI ETF - iShares

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>泰銖自伊朗戰爭開始以來顯著貶值，策略師預測由於油價上漲和該國巨大的能源進口赤字，未來還將進一步下跌。自 2 月底以來，泰銖已下跌超過 4%，預計本季度將貶值至每美元 33.90。分析師警告稱，較高的油價和收窄的經常賬户將繼續對泰銖施加壓力，預測顯示其可能在年底時達到每美元 33。隨着衝突持續，經濟增長可能在今年放緩至 1.3%，對經常賬户產生負面影響</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] The Thai baht has been among the worst performers in Asia since the start of the Iran War and it’s at risk of further losses as the conflict drives up oil prices, strategists say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新加坡] 自伊朗戰爭開始以來，泰銖在亞洲表現最差，戰略家表示，隨着衝突推高油價，泰銖面臨進一步貶值的風險。</p>
</div><p>The baht is likely to come under renewed pressure given the size of the nation’s energy imports, according to MUFG Bank. The seasonal pattern of Thailand’s current account will weigh on the currency in the second quarter, Malayan Banking says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據三菱 UFJ 銀行的説法，考慮到該國的能源進口規模，泰銖可能會再次承受壓力。馬來亞銀行表示，泰國的經常賬户季節性模式將在第二季度對貨幣產生壓力。</p>
</div><p>The Thai currency has already weakened more than 4 per cent since the war began in late February, trailing only the Philippine peso in Asia. The baht retraced some of its declines in early April as a US-Iran ceasefire began, but it has started to drop again as talks between the two sides have stalled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自戰爭於 2 月底開始以來，泰銖已經貶值超過 4%，在亞洲僅次於菲律賓比索。隨着美伊停火的開始，泰銖在 4 月初回升了一些，但隨着雙方談判停滯，它又開始下跌。</p>
</div><p>“We still see risks to the downside for Thai baht, given it runs the largest net oil-and-gas trade deficit in the Asia region,” said Lloyd Chan, a foreign-exchange strategist at MUFG Bank in Singapore. “We are mindful that the US blockade of Iranian ports still persists, which will continue to disrupt energy flows.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三菱 UFJ 銀行新加坡外匯策略師 Lloyd Chan 表示：“考慮到泰國在亞洲地區的石油和天然氣貿易淨赤字最大，我們仍然看到泰銖下行的風險。我們注意到美國對伊朗港口的封鎖仍在持續，這將繼續擾亂能源流動。”</p>
</div><p>The baht will probably weaken to 33.90 per US dollar this quarter, Chan said, which would put the currency at the weakest level since April 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chan 表示，泰銖在本季度可能會貶值至每美元 33.90，這將使貨幣達到自 2025 年 4 月以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><h2>Most vulnerable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最脆弱</h2>
</div><p>The Thai currency is particularly vulnerable as the nation is the most exposed in Asia to higher energy costs, according to a study by Nomura Global Economics, based on factors such as the share of fossil fuels in total energy supply and the energy trade balance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據野村全球經濟學的研究，泰銖特別脆弱，因為該國在亞洲對能源成本的上漲最為敏感，研究考慮了化石燃料在總能源供應中的佔比和能源貿易平衡等因素。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲</h3>
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</div><p>“Higher oil prices and a seasonally narrower current account keep us cautious on the baht in the second quarter,” said Alan Lau, a foreign-exchange strategist at Maybank in Singapore. The baht is set to end this quarter at 32.50 per US dollar, assuming oil prices do not fall significantly, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡馬來亞銀行的外匯策略師 Alan Lau 表示：“油價上漲和季節性經常賬户收窄使我們在第二季度對泰銖保持謹慎。” 他表示，假設油價不會大幅下跌，泰銖預計將在本季度結束時達到每美元 32.50。</p>
</div><p>Maybank’s forecast matches the median estimate of analysts, surveyed by Bloomberg, which represents a slight decline through the end of June from the current level of about 32.40 per US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬來亞銀行的預測與彭博社調查的分析師中位數估計相符，預計到 6 月底將略微下降，當前水平約為每美元 32.40。</p>
</div><p>Thailand’s current-account data due on Thursday will give an initial reading about the impact of surging oil prices. The February numbers had shown an unexpected improvement in the surplus, but there seems little reason to be optimistic this time around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰國的經常賬户數據將於週四公佈，將初步反映油價飆升的影響。2 月份的數據曾顯示盈餘意外改善，但這次似乎沒有理由樂觀。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Thai gold-trading curbs take effect as authorities rein in baht</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>泰國黃金交易限制生效，政府控制泰銖</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Thailand’s US$4 billion rice exports seen strained by baht rally</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>泰國 40 億美元的稻米出口因泰銖升值而面臨壓力</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/379700cf3771f857986fdcace860d1ae44bb1887cd0254e0106e4c5b4556acbd/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/379700cf3771f857986fdcace860d1ae44bb1887cd0254e0106e4c5b4556acbd?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Thailand signals baht intervention room after US puts it on currency watchlist</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>泰國在美國將其列入貨幣觀察名單後，暗示干預泰銖的空間</h3>
</div><p>Economic growth may slow to around 1.3 per cent this year if the war drags on, versus a pre-conflict estimate of 1.9 per cent, Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Vitai Ratanakorn said this month. The central bank has also signalled it will refrain from raising interest rates “for as long as possible” to support the economy, even though inflation is set to accelerate</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果戰爭持續，今年經濟增長可能放緩至約 1.3%，而衝突前的預估為 1.9%，泰國銀行行長 Vitai Ratanakorn 本月表示。中央銀行還表示，將 “儘可能長時間” 不加息以支持經濟，儘管通脹預計將加速。</p>
</div><p>“The BOT has already downgraded growth and flagged a negative impact on the current account, which is bearish for the baht over the medium term,” said Jeffrey Zhang, an emerging markets strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港法國農業信貸銀行的新興市場策略師 Jeffrey Zhang 表示：“泰國銀行已經下調了增長預期，並指出對經常賬户的負面影響，這對中期的泰銖是看跌的。”</p>
</div><p>The baht is likely to weaken to 33 per dollar by year-end, he said. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説，泰銖可能在年末貶值至每美元 33。彭博社</p>
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</div>

策略師表示，由於石油衝擊，泰銖的戰爭損失預計將加劇