--- title: "分析師表示，由於石油衝擊，泰銖的損失預計將進一步加深" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284133369.md" description: "泰銖自伊朗戰爭開始以來顯著貶值，分析師預測由於油價上漲和該國巨大的能源進口赤字，未來還將進一步下跌。自 2 月 28 日以來，泰銖對美元貶值超過 4%，預計本季度將貶值至每美元 33.90。經常賬户狹窄和高能源成本等因素使泰銖特別脆弱。如果衝突持續，經濟增長可能在 2026 年放緩至 1.3%，這將在中期對貨幣產生負面影響" datetime: "2026-04-27T01:10:24.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284133369.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284133369.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284133369.md) --- # 分析師表示，由於石油衝擊，泰銖的損失預計將進一步加深 Singapore – The Thai baht has been among the worst performers in Asia since the start of the Iran War and it’s at risk of further losses as the conflict drives up oil prices, analysts say. The baht is likely to come under renewed pressure given the size of the nation’s energy imports, according to MUFG Bank. The seasonal pattern of Thailand’s current account will weigh on the currency in the second quarter, Malayan Banking says. The Thai currency has already weakened more than 4 per cent against the US dollar since the war began on Feb 28, trailing only the Philippine peso in Asia. Against the Singapore dollar, the baht has fallen 3.4 per cent over the same period. The baht retraced some of its declines in early April as a US-Iran ceasefire began, but it has started to drop again as talks between the two sides have stalled. “We still see risks to the downside for Thai baht, given it runs the largest net oil-and-gas trade deficit in the Asia region,” said Lloyd Chan, a foreign-exchange strategist at MUFG Bank in Singapore. “We are mindful that the US blockade of Iranian ports still persists, which will continue to disrupt energy flows.” The baht will probably weaken to 33.90 per US dollar this quarter, Mr Chan said, which would put the currency at the weakest level since April 2025. The Thai currency is particularly vulnerable as the nation is the most exposed in Asia to higher energy costs, according to a study by Nomura Global Economics, based on factors such as the share of fossil fuels in total energy supply and the energy trade balance. “Higher oil prices and a seasonally narrower current account keep us cautious on the baht in the second quarter,” said Alan Lau, a foreign-exchange strategist at Maybank in Singapore. The baht is set to end this quarter at 32.50 per US dollar, assuming oil prices don’t fall significantly, he said. Thailand’s current-account data due on April 30 will give an initial reading about the impact of surging oil prices. The February numbers had shown an unexpected improvement in the surplus, but there seems little reason to be optimistic this time around. Thaiand’s economic growth may slow to around 1.3 per cent in 2026 if the war drags on, versus a pre-conflict estimate of 1.9 per cent, Bank of Thailand (BOT) Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said in April. The central bank has also signalled it will refrain from raising interest rates “for as long as possible” to support the economy, even though inflation is set to accelerate “The BOT has already downgraded growth and flagged a negative impact on the current account, which is bearish for the baht over the medium term,” said Jeffrey Zhang, an emerging markets strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. The baht is likely to weaken to 33 per US dollar by year-end, he said. BLOOMBERG ### 相關股票 - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [THD.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/THD.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) - [PXJ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PXJ.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [MUFG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MUFG.US.md) - [8306.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/8306.JP.md) - [NMR.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NMR.US.md) - [8604.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/8604.JP.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [美上週原油總庫存創紀錄暴跌 1780 萬桶 出口創新高](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287096913.md) - [天然氣虧損擴大 台電每月吞逾百億 龔明鑫坦言財務是挑戰 打算要這麼做](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286997702.md) - [花旗喊 Brent 原油上看 120 美元 油市低估中東風險](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286971527.md) - [中東局勢現轉機 國際油價大跌](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287123473.md) - [突圍荷莫茲 阿聯：第二條陸上輸油管已完工五成](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287171408.md)