<p>[法蘭克福] 歐洲央行（ECB）週一（5 月 4 日）的一項調查顯示，歐元區公司正在預期類似於新冠疫情後出現的新一輪通脹風險。</p>
<p>如果伊朗的戰爭持續數月，導致燃料、氫氣和氦氣的供應中斷。</p>
<p>中央銀行在週四維持利率不變，但討論了加息以應對飆升的通脹。</p>
<p>它還暗示可能在 6 月開始提高借貸成本。</p>
<p>歐洲央行對大型公司的季度調查發現，航空旅行、物流、化工、塑料和包裝行業的公司已經提高了價格，通常是兩位數的百分比，或者宣佈了漲價。</p>
<p>這些漲幅反映了自衝突開始以來油價的飆升。</p>
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<p>但更廣泛的價格傳導——對歐洲央行政策更為相關——可能比 2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭時更加漸進，因為大型公司已對能源價格波動進行了保護。</p>
<p>歐洲央行表示：“這種對沖在短期內應能在一定程度上限制影響，因為這些公司的能源價格上漲的傳導不那麼直接，主要或僅通過尋求更高輸入價格的小型未對沖供應商。”</p>
<p>然而，如果戰爭及霍爾木茲海峽的相關干擾沒有儘快解決，公司預計將面臨類似於 2022 年至 2023 年所見的新一輪通脹風險。</p>
<p>另見</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a6977afd3b8cc13d234893a60c0b6f2df7833ded59bd8f02be7c97405fe41904/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a6977afd3b8cc13d234893a60c0b6f2df7833ded59bd8f02be7c97405fe41904/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>歐元區價格在戰爭第二個月預計將大幅上漲</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>國際貨幣基金組織預計歐洲央行將在 2026 年加息半個百分點</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>歐洲央行表示消費者通脹預期在 3 月份急劇上升</h3>
<p>中央銀行表示：“如果衝突持續數月而不是數週，霍爾木茲海峽仍然被封鎖和/或對石油和天然氣基礎設施的進一步攻擊，將導致全球短缺——不僅是燃料，還有許多需要石油衍生物製造的產品。”</p>
<p>在需要石油衍生物的產品中，歐洲央行提到了氫氣和氦氣。</p>
<p>與疫情後時期相比，它指出全球需求疲軟，尤其是來自中國的需求，服務業未能如預期那樣繁榮，以及財政支出的經濟刺激水平較低等因素。</p>
<p>歐洲央行在 3 月 23 日至 4 月 1 日期間採訪了 67 家非金融行業的公司。路透社</p>
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<p>根據歐洲中央銀行（ECB）的一項調查，歐元區公司預見到可能出現類似於新冠疫情後時期的通貨膨脹激增。這一預期與伊朗持續的戰爭有關，可能會擾亂燃料和氦氣的供應。儘管 ECB 保持利率穩定，但可能會考慮在 6 月加息。航空旅行和物流等行業的公司已經大幅提高了價格。ECB 指出，持續的衝突可能導致全球燃料和依賴石油衍生品的產品短缺，儘管當前的對沖策略減輕了即時影響</p>

<p>[FRANKFURT] Eurozone companies are anticipating the risk of a new inflation surge akin to that which occurred after the Covid-19 pandemic, a European Central Bank (ECB) survey showed on Monday (May 4).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[法蘭克福] 歐洲央行（ECB）週一（5 月 4 日）的一項調查顯示，歐元區公司正在預期類似於新冠疫情後出現的新一輪通脹風險。</p>
</div><p>This is if the war in Iran lasts months, disrupting the supply of fuel, hydrogen and helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗的戰爭持續數月，導致燃料、氫氣和氦氣的供應中斷。</p>
</div><p>The central bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday but debated a hike to combat soaring inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央銀行在週四維持利率不變，但討論了加息以應對飆升的通脹。</p>
</div><p>It also signalled that it might start raising borrowing costs in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它還暗示可能在 6 月開始提高借貸成本。</p>
</div><p>The ECB’s quarterly survey of large companies found that those operating in air-travel, logistics, chemicals, plastics and packaging industries had already raised their prices, often by double-digit percentages, or announced hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲央行對大型公司的季度調查發現，航空旅行、物流、化工、塑料和包裝行業的公司已經提高了價格，通常是兩位數的百分比，或者宣佈了漲價。</p>
</div><p>The increases reflect the surge in oil prices since the conflict started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些漲幅反映了自衝突開始以來油價的飆升。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲</h3>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>獲取洞察，送到您的郵箱。</p>
</div><p>But a broader pass-through to other prices – more relevant for ECB policy – is likely to be more gradual than at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, because large companies have protected themselves against energy price swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更廣泛的價格傳導——對歐洲央行政策更為相關——可能比 2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭時更加漸進，因為大型公司已對能源價格波動進行了保護。</p>
</div><p>The ECB said: “This hedging should limit the impact somewhat in the short term, as the pass-through of higher energy prices for these firms was less direct, coming mainly or only via smaller, unhedged suppliers seeking higher input prices.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲央行表示：“這種對沖在短期內應能在一定程度上限制影響，因為這些公司的能源價格上漲的傳導不那麼直接，主要或僅通過尋求更高輸入價格的小型未對沖供應商。”</p>
</div><p>If the war and the associated disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are not resolved soon, however, companies anticipate the risk of a new burst of inflation similar to that seen in 2022 to 2023, it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果戰爭及霍爾木茲海峽的相關干擾沒有儘快解決，公司預計將面臨類似於 2022 年至 2023 年所見的新一輪通脹風險。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a6977afd3b8cc13d234893a60c0b6f2df7833ded59bd8f02be7c97405fe41904/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a6977afd3b8cc13d234893a60c0b6f2df7833ded59bd8f02be7c97405fe41904?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Eurozone price spike seen surging higher in second month of war</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>歐元區價格在戰爭第二個月預計將大幅上漲</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>IMF expects ECB to raise rates by half a percentage point in 2026</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>國際貨幣基金組織預計歐洲央行將在 2026 年加息半個百分點</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>ECB says consumer inflation expectations rose sharply in March</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>歐洲央行表示消費者通脹預期在 3 月份急劇上升</h3>
</div><p>The central bank said: “A conflict lasting months rather than weeks, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked and/or further attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, would result in global shortages – not only of fuel but also of many products requiring oil derivatives for their manufacture.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央銀行表示：“如果衝突持續數月而不是數週，霍爾木茲海峽仍然被封鎖和/或對石油和天然氣基礎設施的進一步攻擊，將導致全球短缺——不僅是燃料，還有許多需要石油衍生物製造的產品。”</p>
</div><p>Of the products requiring oil derivatives, the ECB cited hydrogen and helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在需要石油衍生物的產品中，歐洲央行提到了氫氣和氦氣。</p>
</div><p>Compared with the post-pandemic period, it indicated weak global demand, especially from China, the absence of an expected boom in services and a lower level of economic stimulus from fiscal spending as mitigating factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與疫情後時期相比，它指出全球需求疲軟，尤其是來自中國的需求，服務業未能如預期那樣繁榮，以及財政支出的經濟刺激水平較低等因素。</p>
</div><p>The ECB interviewed 67 companies outside the financial sector, mainly between Mar 23 and Apr 1. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲央行在 3 月 23 日至 4 月 1 日期間採訪了 67 家非金融行業的公司。路透社</p>
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Eurozone companies expect new inflation surge if war lasts months: ECB poll

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根據歐洲央行的調查，歐元區公司預計如果戰爭持續數月，通脹將再次上升