<p>日本的服務業採購經理人指數（PMI）在四月份從 53.4 降至 51.0，創下 11 個月來的最低點，因中東戰爭導致投入成本通脹達到 42 個月來的最高水平，商業信心降至疫情以來的最低點。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>根據 S&amp;P Global 的數據，四月份 S&amp;P 全球日本服務業 PMI 從三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，標誌着 11 個月以來最温和的擴張速度，並且是連續第 13 個月增長。</li>
<li>四月份投入成本以 12 個月以來最快的速度上漲，中東戰爭被認為是主要驅動因素，尤其是燃料；根據 S&amp;P Global 的數據，產出收費以自 2007 年 9 月調查開始以來第三快的速度上漲。</li>
<li>新訂單以自 2025 年 10 月以來最慢的速度擴張，出口業務在五個月內首次下降，部分原因歸因於與戰爭相關的不確定性對海外需求的影響。</li>
<li>日本綜合 PMI 產出指數從三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是 2026 年迄今為止最温和的讀數，服務業的疲軟抵消了製造業產出在 12 年內的最快增長。</li>
<li>綜合指數的投入成本通脹在四月份達到 42 個月來的最高水平，而銷售價格以創紀錄的速度上漲，暗示未來幾個月官方通脹將加速，S&amp;P Global 經濟學副主任安娜貝爾·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示。</li>
<li>商業信心是疫情以來第二低，僅比三月份的疫情後低點略有上升，持續的不確定性被認為是主要拖累因素，尤其是戰爭及其成本和需求的影響。</li>
</ul>
<p>根據最新的 S&amp;P 全球日本服務業 PMI 調查，日本的服務業在四月份以 11 個月以來最慢的速度擴張，中東戰爭的經濟影響使投入成本達到三年半以來的最高水平，並將商業信心壓至自 Covid-19 疫情以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>服務業商業活動指數在四月份從三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，仍高於 50.0 的擴張與收縮分界線，連續第 13 個月保持增長。然而，增長的速度是自 2025 年 5 月以來最微弱的，數據表明服務業在需求減弱和因海灣衝突導致的成本壓力加劇之間愈發受到擠壓。</p>
<p>新訂單以自 2025 年 10 月以來最慢的速度擴張，企業報告稱與戰爭相關的不確定性和高企的價格對銷售造成了壓力。出口業務在五個月內首次下降，儘管幅度不大，海外對日本服務的需求有所減弱。金融和保險以及運輸和倉儲是調查中表現最強的子行業，但整體情況是減速。</p>
<p>成本情況更為令人擔憂。平均投入價格以 12 個月以來最快的速度上漲，燃料成本與中東戰爭直接相關，被明確指出是主要驅動因素。企業通過將更高的成本轉嫁給客户來應對，產出收費以自 2007 年 9 月調查開始以來第三快的速度上漲。S&amp;P Global 警告稱，定價數據表明日本官方通脹率在未來幾個月將加速，這一發展將對日本銀行的政策路徑產生重大影響。</p>
<p>綜合情況顯示，結合服務業和製造業的日本綜合 PMI 產出指數從三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是今年迄今為止最温和的讀數。值得注意的是，綜合指數掩蓋了行業趨勢的顯著差異：服務業增長是幾個月以來最弱，而製造業產出以 12 年多來的最快速度增長，部分原因是企業在預期戰爭相關的供應中斷之前提前囤積庫存。</p>
<p>在綜合指數中，投入成本通脹達到 42 個月來的最高水平，銷售價格以創紀錄的速度上漲，安娜貝爾·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示，這表明官方通脹即將加速。菲德斯指出，商業信心在 2020 年 8 月降至疫情以來的最低水平，企業指出戰爭、進一步價格上漲的風險以及客户需求可能減弱是影響他們未來一年展望的主要不確定因素。</p>
<p>服務業的就業繼續温和增長，增速大致與三月份持平，產能壓力顯示出一些緩解跡象，積壓增長放緩至 14 個月以來的最慢速度。但這些相對穩定的勞動力市場信號與商業信心的讀數形成了不和諧的對比，後者發出更為謹慎的信號，表明日本服務活動的前景在中東衝突沒有減弱的情況下變得更加不明朗。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>服務活動放緩與創紀錄的銷售價格通脹的結合是一個滯脹信號，這在市場已經在基於今早的工資數據定價 6 月加息的時刻，給日本銀行的政策決策帶來了複雜性。</p>
<p>由於中東戰爭相關的燃料成本，輸入成本通脹達到 42 個月來的最高水平，這直接將海灣衝突的影響傳遞到日本消費者價格。標準普爾全球公司警告稱，官方通脹在未來幾個月可能加速，這將增加日本銀行的審議緊迫性。對於能源市場而言，這些數據進一步證明，伊朗衝突正在對亞洲第二大經濟體造成可測量的需求側干擾，商業信心降至疫情以來的最低點，抑制了本應支持燃料消費的活動增長。服務業放緩至 11 個月以來的最低點，而製造業則錄得 12 年來最強勁的產出增長，部分是由於預期供應中斷而提前備貨，這種差異化的需求狀況使得原油和成品油交易者需要謹慎應對。</p>

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<p>日本的服務業採購經理人指數（PMI）在四月份從 53.4 降至 51.0，創下 11 個月來的最低點，因為中東戰爭的經濟影響導致投入成本達到 42 個月來的最高水平。商業信心是自疫情以來的第二低，新訂單的增長速度是自 2025 年十月以來的最慢。投入價格大幅上漲，尤其是燃料價格，導致產出費用增加。日本綜合 PMI 產出指數也有所下降，反映出服務業放緩，儘管製造業產出有所上升。分析師警告稱，由於這些趨勢，通貨膨脹可能加速</p>

<p>Japan's services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4, an 11-month low, as Middle East war costs drove input inflation to a 42-month high and business confidence hit its lowest since the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的服務業採購經理人指數（PMI）在四月份從 53.4 降至 51.0，創下 11 個月來的最低點，因中東戰爭導致投入成本通脹達到 42 個月來的最高水平，商業信心降至疫情以來的最低點。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>The S&amp;P Global Japan Services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4 in March, marking the softest rate of expansion in 11 months and a 13th consecutive month of growth, according to S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>Input costs rose at the sharpest rate in 12 months in April, with the Middle East war cited as a key driver, particularly for fuel; output charges rose at the third-steepest rate since the survey began in September 2007, per S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>New orders expanded at the slowest pace since October 2025, with new export business falling for the first time in five months, partly attributed to war-related uncertainty weighing on overseas demand, according to S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>The Japan Composite PMI Output Index slipped from 53.0 in March to 52.2 in April, the softest reading of 2026 to date, with services weakness offsetting the quickest rise in manufacturing output in over 12 years, per S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>Input cost inflation across the composite hit a 42-month high in April, while selling prices rose at the fastest rate on record, suggesting an acceleration in official inflation in coming months, according to S&amp;P Global Economics Associate Director Annabel Fiddes</li>
<li>Business confidence was the second-lowest since the pandemic, lifting only marginally from March's post-pandemic low, with ongoing uncertainty over the war and its cost and demand implications cited as the primary drag, per S&amp;P Global</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>根據 S&amp;P Global 的數據，四月份 S&amp;P 全球日本服務業 PMI 從三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，標誌着 11 個月以來最温和的擴張速度，並且是連續第 13 個月增長。</li>
<li>四月份投入成本以 12 個月以來最快的速度上漲，中東戰爭被認為是主要驅動因素，尤其是燃料；根據 S&amp;P Global 的數據，產出收費以自 2007 年 9 月調查開始以來第三快的速度上漲。</li>
<li>新訂單以自 2025 年 10 月以來最慢的速度擴張，出口業務在五個月內首次下降，部分原因歸因於與戰爭相關的不確定性對海外需求的影響。</li>
<li>日本綜合 PMI 產出指數從三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是 2026 年迄今為止最温和的讀數，服務業的疲軟抵消了製造業產出在 12 年內的最快增長。</li>
<li>綜合指數的投入成本通脹在四月份達到 42 個月來的最高水平，而銷售價格以創紀錄的速度上漲，暗示未來幾個月官方通脹將加速，S&amp;P Global 經濟學副主任安娜貝爾·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示。</li>
<li>商業信心是疫情以來第二低，僅比三月份的疫情後低點略有上升，持續的不確定性被認為是主要拖累因素，尤其是戰爭及其成本和需求的影響。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Japan's services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 11 months in April, as the economic fallout from the Middle East war drove input costs to their highest in three and a half years and pushed business confidence to near its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the latest S&amp;P Global Japan Services PMI survey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據最新的 S&amp;P 全球日本服務業 PMI 調查，日本的服務業在四月份以 11 個月以來最慢的速度擴張，中東戰爭的經濟影響使投入成本達到三年半以來的最高水平，並將商業信心壓至自 Covid-19 疫情以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The headline Services Business Activity Index fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4 in March, remaining above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and extending the current growth streak to 13 consecutive months. However, the pace of that growth was the most marginal since May 2025, and the data pointed to a services sector increasingly squeezed between weakening demand and accelerating cost pressures driven by the conflict in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服務業商業活動指數在四月份從三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，仍高於 50.0 的擴張與收縮分界線，連續第 13 個月保持增長。然而，增長的速度是自 2025 年 5 月以來最微弱的，數據表明服務業在需求減弱和因海灣衝突導致的成本壓力加劇之間愈發受到擠壓。</p>
</div><p>New orders expanded at the slowest rate since October 2025, with firms reporting that uncertainty related to the war and elevated prices had weighed on sales. Export business fell for the first time in five months, albeit modestly, as overseas demand for Japanese services softened. Finance and insurance and transport and storage were the strongest-performing sub-sectors within the survey, but the broader picture was one of deceleration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新訂單以自 2025 年 10 月以來最慢的速度擴張，企業報告稱與戰爭相關的不確定性和高企的價格對銷售造成了壓力。出口業務在五個月內首次下降，儘管幅度不大，海外對日本服務的需求有所減弱。金融和保險以及運輸和倉儲是調查中表現最強的子行業，但整體情況是減速。</p>
</div><p>The cost picture was more alarming. Average input prices rose at the sharpest rate in 12 months, with fuel costs linked to the Middle East war cited explicitly as a key driver. Firms responded by passing on higher costs to clients, with output charges rising at the third-steepest rate recorded since the survey began in September 2007. S&amp;P Global warned that the pricing data points to an acceleration in Japan's official inflation rate in the months ahead, a development that will carry significant implications for the Bank of Japan's policy path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成本情況更為令人擔憂。平均投入價格以 12 個月以來最快的速度上漲，燃料成本與中東戰爭直接相關，被明確指出是主要驅動因素。企業通過將更高的成本轉嫁給客户來應對，產出收費以自 2007 年 9 月調查開始以來第三快的速度上漲。S&amp;P Global 警告稱，定價數據表明日本官方通脹率在未來幾個月將加速，這一發展將對日本銀行的政策路徑產生重大影響。</p>
</div><p>The composite picture, combining services and manufacturing, showed the Japan Composite PMI Output Index easing from 53.0 in March to 52.2 in April, its softest reading of the year to date. Strikingly, the composite masked sharply divergent sectoral trends: services growth was the weakest in months, while manufacturing output rose at the fastest rate in over 12 years, driven partly by front-loading as firms sought to build inventory buffers ahead of anticipated war-related supply disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合情況顯示，結合服務業和製造業的日本綜合 PMI 產出指數從三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是今年迄今為止最温和的讀數。值得注意的是，綜合指數掩蓋了行業趨勢的顯著差異：服務業增長是幾個月以來最弱，而製造業產出以 12 年多來的最快速度增長，部分原因是企業在預期戰爭相關的供應中斷之前提前囤積庫存。</p>
</div><p>Across the composite, input cost inflation hit a 42-month high and selling prices rose at the fastest rate on record, a combination that Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, described as suggestive of a coming acceleration in official inflation. Fiddes noted that business confidence slipped to its lowest since the pandemic in August 2020, with firms citing the war, the risk of further price increases, and the possibility of softer customer demand as the primary sources of uncertainty weighing on their year-ahead outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在綜合指數中，投入成本通脹達到 42 個月來的最高水平，銷售價格以創紀錄的速度上漲，安娜貝爾·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示，這表明官方通脹即將加速。菲德斯指出，商業信心在 2020 年 8 月降至疫情以來的最低水平，企業指出戰爭、進一步價格上漲的風險以及客户需求可能減弱是影響他們未來一年展望的主要不確定因素。</p>
</div><p>Employment continued to rise modestly across the services sector, at a pace broadly in line with March, and capacity pressures showed some signs of easing as backlog growth slowed to its softest rate in 14 months. But those relatively stable labour market signals sat in uncomfortable contrast with a confidence reading that is flashing a more cautious message about where Japanese services activity is headed as the Middle East conflict shows no sign of abating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服務業的就業繼續温和增長，增速大致與三月份持平，產能壓力顯示出一些緩解跡象，積壓增長放緩至 14 個月以來的最慢速度。但這些相對穩定的勞動力市場信號與商業信心的讀數形成了不和諧的對比，後者發出更為謹慎的信號，表明日本服務活動的前景在中東衝突沒有減弱的情況下變得更加不明朗。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The combination of slowing services activity and record-pace selling price inflation is a stagflationary signal that complicates the Bank of Japan's policy calculus at a moment when markets are already pricing a June rate hike on the back of this morning's wage data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服務活動放緩與創紀錄的銷售價格通脹的結合是一個滯脹信號，這在市場已經在基於今早的工資數據定價 6 月加息的時刻，給日本銀行的政策決策帶來了複雜性。</p>
</div><p>Input cost inflation hitting a 42-month high, driven explicitly by Middle East war-related fuel costs, is a direct transmission mechanism from the Gulf conflict to Japanese consumer prices, and S&amp;P Global's warning that official inflation could accelerate in coming months will add urgency to the BOJ's deliberations. For energy markets, the data provides further evidence that the Iran conflict is generating measurable demand-side disruption in Asia's second-largest economy, with business confidence at its lowest since the pandemic suppressing the kind of activity growth that would otherwise support fuel consumption. The divergence between a services sector slowing to its weakest in 11 months and a manufacturing sector posting its strongest output growth in over 12 years, partly driven by front-loading ahead of anticipated supply disruptions, creates an uneven demand picture that traders in both crude and refined products will need to navigate carefully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於中東戰爭相關的燃料成本，輸入成本通脹達到 42 個月來的最高水平，這直接將海灣衝突的影響傳遞到日本消費者價格。標準普爾全球公司警告稱，官方通脹在未來幾個月可能加速，這將增加日本銀行的審議緊迫性。對於能源市場而言，這些數據進一步證明，伊朗衝突正在對亞洲第二大經濟體造成可測量的需求側干擾，商業信心降至疫情以來的最低點，抑制了本應支持燃料消費的活動增長。服務業放緩至 11 個月以來的最低點，而製造業則錄得 12 年來最強勁的產出增長，部分是由於預期供應中斷而提前備貨，這種差異化的需求狀況使得原油和成品油交易者需要謹慎應對。</p>
</div>

Japan services PMI hits 11-month low in April. War costs bite, input costs 42-month high

- 日本四月服務業 PMI 從 53.4 降至 51.0，創 11 個月最低點。  
- 中東戰爭使投入成本通脹達到 42 個月高位，商業信心降至疫情後低點。  
- 新訂單和出口業務減弱，未來官方通脹可能加速。

日本服務業 PMI 在四月份降至 11 個月來的最低點。戰爭成本的影響顯現，投入成本達到 42 個月來的最高點