--- title: "德國工業在三月份因伊朗戰爭爆發而出現下滑——第二次更新" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285684288.md" description: "德國工業生產在三月份下降了 0.7%，原因是伊朗衝突導致能源價格上漲，這標誌着該國製造業復甦的挫折。此次下降緊隨二月份 0.5% 的下滑，且同比下降幅度達到 2.8%。德國工業協會 BDI 警告稱，今年德國工業可能面臨停滯，而四月份汽車銷售顯著放緩。儘管工廠訂單有所增加，但由於能源價格飆升和供應鏈中斷的威脅，前景依然黯淡。歐洲中央銀行可能會加息，這將進一步影響工業企業" datetime: "2026-05-08T07:50:13.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285684288.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285684288.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285684288.md) --- # 德國工業在三月份因伊朗戰爭爆發而出現下滑——第二次更新 By Ed Frankl German industrial production retreated in March, as the start of the conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices climbing, a setback for any recovery for manufacturing in Europe's largest economy this year. Germany's industrial sector had been expected to rebound in 2026, after a downturn that stretches back into the last decade. Pandemic-era supply issues were exacerbated by the pivot away from cheap Russian gas, increased competition from China for German goods, and an expensive green-energy transition. But the country's government last year pledged to unlock more than $1 trillion for defense and infrastructure--investments that it hoped would revitalize Germany's traditionally dominant manufacturing sector. Rising oil-and-gas prices stemming from the war in Iran have darkened the outlook, and are especially damaging to a key energy importer like Germany. Output fell 0.7% in March, driven by a slump in energy production, and accelerating a 0.5% decline in February, Germany's statistics agency Destatis said Friday. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.5% rise in March. On year, production was down 2.8%, the data showed. As a result of the war, German industry faces stagnation at best this year, the country's BDI industrial association said last month, with the conflict creating additional uncertainty and strain for companies. Sales of cars within Germany slowed significantly in April, the KBA motor authority said Thursday. Meanwhile, Volkswagen's head of procurement Karsten Schnake said in an interview with German trade publication Automobilwoche, also on Thursday that the automaker might have to raise prices should the war drag on beyond the middle of the year. President Trump's threatened tariffs of 25% for European car imports into the U.S. present another headache for carmakers. "Given that energy prices continued to soar in April and risks of supply-chain disruptions increased, any near-term improvement in industrial production looks very unlikely," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING bank, said in a note. With production down 1.2% on quarter and Germany's trade surplus narrowing significantly in March, gross domestic product could be downgraded from the 0.3% recorded in January-March, he added. Imports jumped 5.1% in March to their highest value since November 2022, when Germany was paying increasing prices for energy imports after switching off the Russian gas spigot. However, in more positive news, factory orders--which feed into production data with a lag--climbed unexpectedly in March, Destatis said in separate data Thursday. However, some of that might have been front-running of stocks to get ahead of supply-chain disruption prompted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is a key choke point for inputs like industrial gases and fertilizer. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates between two and three times this year, perhaps as soon as next month, according to LSEG data, likely making borrowing more expensive for industrial firms. Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires May 08, 2026 03:35 ET (07:35 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相關股票 - [EWG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EWG.US.md) - [DAX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DAX.US.md) - [VOW.DE](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOW.DE.md) - [VOW3.DE](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOW3.DE.md) - [VWAGY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VWAGY.US.md) - [VWAPY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VWAPY.US.md) - [ING.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ING.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [德國 PMI 連續兩月低於榮枯線，經濟或於 Q2 陷入萎縮](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287178750.md) - [安永調查顯示：流入德國的外國投資驟降至17年來最低水平](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287185083.md) - [歐元區商業活動以 2023 年來最快步伐萎縮 油價飆升重創經濟的擔憂加劇](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287200475.md) - [中東戰火陰霾籠罩 歐元恐創 2024 年以來最慘單季表現](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281018385.md) - [復甦預期恐落空！德國 2 月工業產出戰前先衰 停火曙光難掩經濟頹勢](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282149155.md)