---
title: "季節性趨勢表明長期國債可能在夏季出現上漲"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286072347.md"
description: "季節性趨勢表明，長期國債可能在夏季出現反彈，歷史數據表明，從現在到八月初，價格上漲和收益率下降的趨勢明顯。流動性降低、再投資流動、股票輪換以及經濟數據疲軟等因素共同促成了有利的債券市場。此外，美國與伊朗之間的緊張局勢緩解以及油價可能下跌，可能會減輕通脹擔憂，進一步提升對長期國債的需求"
datetime: "2026-05-12T09:45:18.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286072347.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286072347.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286072347.md)
---

# 季節性趨勢表明長期國債可能在夏季出現上漲

Seasonal setup: From now through early August, historical data shows a strong tendency for long-term Treasury prices to rise and yields to fall. Market drivers: Lower liquidity, reinvestment flows, equity rotation, and softer economic data often create a bullish environment for bonds in summer. Extra tailwinds: Easing U.S.-Iran tensions and potential oil price declines could ease inflation concerns, supporting long-end bond demand.

### 相關股票

- [SCHQ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SCHQ.US.md)
- [EDV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EDV.US.md)
- [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TLT.US.md)
- [SPTL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPTL.US.md)
- [IEF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEF.US.md)

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