<p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，聯邦基金期貨大約在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈現出五五開的局面。</p>
<p>美國投資者正在拋售國債，因伊朗戰爭導致的能源成本上漲沒有緩解的跡象。</p>
<p>由於伊朗戰爭導致的能源價格上漲，投資者在週二早些時候拋售美國政府債務，這給美國消費者的口袋帶來了壓力，並推高了生活成本。</p>
<p>在早盤交易中，&#34;長期&#34;30 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 重新回到了心理上重要的 5% 水平，此前消費者通脹數據顯示，4 月份年通脹率達到了三年來的最高點 3.8%。債券價格和收益率呈反向移動。</p>
<p>根據 AAA 的數據，目前全國汽油價格平均為每加侖 4.50 美元，這給美國消費者帶來了很大的直接痛苦。接近歷史高點的柴油價格也推動了食品、包裹以及其他通過卡車和鐵路運輸的商品的成本。</p>
<p>特朗普總統拒絕了德黑蘭最近提出的結束伊朗戰爭的提議，焦點轉向他本週的中國之行。隨着夏季旅遊季節的臨近，消費者似乎沒有太多緩解的希望。</p>
<p>&#34;一切都取決於接下來兩到三週油價的走勢，&#34;Mischler Financial Group 的固定收益專家兼董事總經理 Tom di Galoma 表示。&#34;油價持續上漲，人們找不到購買長期債券的真正理由。&#34;</p>
<p>根據 FactSet 的數據，全球布倫特原油（BRN00）週二上漲至每桶 107 美元以上，反映出今年迄今價格上漲了 77%。</p>
<p>通脹往往會對債券價值造成壓力，因為其固定支付流被不斷上漲的生活成本侵蝕，從而使其價值降低。生活成本的上升也可能迫使中央銀行考慮加息，這可能會對股票 SPX 和債券造成傷害。</p>
<p>週二，投資者還在為新的國債供應做準備，財政部計劃在下午早些時候拍賣 420 億美元的 10 年期國債 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及週三拍賣 250 億美元的 30 年期國債。</p>
<p>新的供應出現之際，美國聯邦債務已達到約 30 萬億美元的&#34;驚人但可控&#34;水平，其中超過一半將在未來三年到期，依據富國銀行投資研究所的報告。</p>
<p>富國銀行團隊表示，預計美國赤字將在未來三年內增加 5000 億到 6000 億美元的公共債務負擔，如果通過更多國債發行來覆蓋。</p>
<p>在近期，機構投資者通常在 30 年期國債收益率達到 5% 時積極購買美國債務。但與伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽的對峙風險加深了已經被描述為歷史性的油價衝擊，這可能會抑制對市場上可用的最長美國政府債務的需求。</p>
<p>相關：摩根士丹利警告稱，&#34;與時間賽跑&#34;：霍爾木茲海峽關閉可能在夏季將布倫特原油推高至每桶 150 美元。</p>
<p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，聯邦基金期貨大約在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈現出五五開的局面。</p>
<p>&#34;雖然加息是可能的，&#34;ClearBridge Investments 的高級投資策略分析師 Josh Jamner 表示，&#34;衝突的緩和和勞動力市場的疲軟應使美聯儲暫時保持不變，我們認為在 2027 年降息的可能性仍然大於加息。&#34;</p>
<p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>05-12-26 1144ET</p>

7-10 年美國國債 ETF - iShares

國泰上證5年期國債ETF

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美國中期國債 ETF - iShares

1-3年 美國國債 ETF - iShares

美國超長期國債 ETF - Vanguard

20 年期以上美國國債 ETF - iShares

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美國短期國債指數 ETF - iShares

通脹債券指數 ETF - iShares

<p>高通脹正在推動 30 年期國債收益率升至 5%，這主要是由於與伊朗戰爭相關的能源成本上升。美國消費者面臨生活成本增加，汽油價格平均為每加侖 4.50 美元。投資者因對通脹和潛在加息的擔憂而拋售國債。預計美國聯邦債務將達到 30 萬億美元，並且預計將有大量新的國債供應。分析師表示，儘管加息是可能的，但由於當前的經濟環境，美聯儲可能會保持觀望</p>

<p>By Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>Fed-fund futures were pricing in roughly a coin toss in terms of the odds of a rate hike by March 2027, according to the CME FedWatch Tool</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，聯邦基金期貨大約在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈現出五五開的局面。</p>
</div><p>U.S. investors are selling Treasurys, with no relief in sight from higher energy costs due to the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國投資者正在拋售國債，因伊朗戰爭導致的能源成本上漲沒有緩解的跡象。</p>
</div><p>Investors were ditching U.S. government debt early Tuesday as higher energy prices from the Iran war pinch Americans' pocketbooks and push up the cost of living.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於伊朗戰爭導致的能源價格上漲，投資者在週二早些時候拋售美國政府債務，這給美國消費者的口袋帶來了壓力，並推高了生活成本。</p>
</div><p>The yield on the &#34;long&#34; 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y reclaimed the psychologically important 5% level in morning trading after a reading of consumer inflation showed that it reached a three-year annual high of 3.8% in April. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盤交易中，&#34;長期&#34;30 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 重新回到了心理上重要的 5% 水平，此前消費者通脹數據顯示，4 月份年通脹率達到了三年來的最高點 3.8%。債券價格和收益率呈反向移動。</p>
</div><p>Higher gas prices, which now average $4.50 a gallon nationally, according to AAA, are the source of much of the immediate pain for U.S. consumers. Diesel prices near record highs also flow through to the cost of groceries, packages and everything else delivered by truck and by rail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 AAA 的數據，目前全國汽油價格平均為每加侖 4.50 美元，這給美國消費者帶來了很大的直接痛苦。接近歷史高點的柴油價格也推動了食品、包裹以及其他通過卡車和鐵路運輸的商品的成本。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump rebuffed a recent offer from Tehran to end the Iran war, putting the focus on his trip to China this week. With the summer travel season approaching, there doesn't look to be much relief in sight for consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統拒絕了德黑蘭最近提出的結束伊朗戰爭的提議，焦點轉向他本週的中國之行。隨着夏季旅遊季節的臨近，消費者似乎沒有太多緩解的希望。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It all depends on what oil does in the next two to three weeks,&#34; said Tom di Galoma, a fixed-income specialist and managing director at Mischler Financial Group. &#34;The fact that oil continues to push higher, people don't find a really good reason to buy long bonds.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;一切都取決於接下來兩到三週油價的走勢，&#34;Mischler Financial Group 的固定收益專家兼董事總經理 Tom di Galoma 表示。&#34;油價持續上漲，人們找不到購買長期債券的真正理由。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Global Brent crude (BRN00) climbed above $107 a barrel Tuesday, reflecting a 77% increase in prices in the year so far, according to FactSet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 FactSet 的數據，全球布倫特原油（BRN00）週二上漲至每桶 107 美元以上，反映出今年迄今價格上漲了 77%。</p>
</div><p>Inflation tends to weigh on bond values because their fixed payment streams are eroded by a rising cost of living, making them worth less. A rising cost of living also can force central banks to consider interest-rate hikes, which can hurt both stocks SPX and bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹往往會對債券價值造成壓力，因為其固定支付流被不斷上漲的生活成本侵蝕，從而使其價值降低。生活成本的上升也可能迫使中央銀行考慮加息，這可能會對股票 SPX 和債券造成傷害。</p>
</div><p>Investors on Tuesday also were bracing for new Treasury supply, with the department set to auction $42 billion in 10-year notes BX:TMUBMUSD10Y in the early afternoon and $25 billion in 30-year bonds Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，投資者還在為新的國債供應做準備，財政部計劃在下午早些時候拍賣 420 億美元的 10 年期國債 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及週三拍賣 250 億美元的 30 年期國債。</p>
</div><p>The new supply comes as the U.S. federal debt has reached a &#34;staggering but manageable&#34; level of about $30 trillion, more than half of which is set to mature over the next three years, according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute report on the topic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的供應出現之際，美國聯邦債務已達到約 30 萬億美元的&#34;驚人但可控&#34;水平，其中超過一半將在未來三年到期，依據富國銀行投資研究所的報告。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. deficit has been forecast to add another $5 trillion to $6 trillion to the public debt load over the next three years, if it's covered by more Treasury issuance, the Wells Fargo team said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富國銀行團隊表示，預計美國赤字將在未來三年內增加 5000 億到 6000 億美元的公共債務負擔，如果通過更多國債發行來覆蓋。</p>
</div><p>In the recent past, institutional investors have often come out in force to buy U.S. debt when the 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5%. But the standoff with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz risks deepening what's already been described as a historic oil shock. That could dampen appetite for the longest form of U.S. government debt available on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在近期，機構投資者通常在 30 年期國債收益率達到 5% 時積極購買美國債務。但與伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽的對峙風險加深了已經被描述為歷史性的油價衝擊，這可能會抑制對市場上可用的最長美國政府債務的需求。</p>
</div><p>Related: A 'race against time': Hormuz closure could push Brent crude to $150 a barrel by summer, warns Morgan Stanley</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相關：摩根士丹利警告稱，&#34;與時間賽跑&#34;：霍爾木茲海峽關閉可能在夏季將布倫特原油推高至每桶 150 美元。</p>
</div><p>Fed-fund futures were roughly pricing in a coin toss in terms of the chances of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve by March 2027, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，聯邦基金期貨大約在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈現出五五開的局面。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While rate hikes are possible,&#34; said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, &#34;de-escalation of the conflict and muted strength in the labor market should keep the Fed on hold for the time being, with cuts still more likely than hikes in 2027 in our view.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;雖然加息是可能的，&#34;ClearBridge Investments 的高級投資策略分析師 Josh Jamner 表示，&#34;衝突的緩和和勞動力市場的疲軟應使美聯儲暫時保持不變，我們認為在 2027 年降息的可能性仍然大於加息。&#34;</p>
</div><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1144ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1144ET</p>
</div>

High inflation is pushing yields to 5% on Treasury bonds

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高通脹正在使美國國債的收益率升至 5%