<ul>
<li>貨幣政策不應僅僅基於油價</li>
<li>歐洲央行需要評估能源衝擊是否會蔓延至通脹預期、工資和核心通脹</li>
<li>值得為霍爾木茲海峽的長期衝突做好準備</li>
<li>如果事件發展有所不同，調整將會更容易</li>
<li>關鍵因素是能源衝擊的強度和持續時間，以及其對通脹的更廣泛傳導</li>
<li>至少到目前為止，能源衝擊與 2022 年的衝擊並不完全可比</li>
<li>歐洲央行致力於在中期內將通脹穩定在 2% 左右</li>
<li>完整報告請見此處</li>
</ul>
<p>歐洲央行的雷恩表示，儘管中東衝突帶來了不確定性，但歐洲央行不應僅僅基於波動的油價來制定貨幣政策。雷恩指出，儘管當前形勢呈現出滯漲衝擊，短期內增長放緩和通脹上升，但與 2022 年的嚴重能源危機根本不同。他警告不要重蹈 2011 年的政策錯誤，當時因能源價格飆升而加息的舉措在整體經濟疲軟時迅速被逆轉。</p>
<p>雷恩強調，中央銀行的決策將取決於更高的能源成本是否通過工資和長期通脹預期轉化為更廣泛的通脹。儘管基於市場的通脹預期仍然接近 2% 的目標，且工資數據迄今令人安心，但歐洲央行正在密切關注這一臨時價格激增是否可能成為持續的壓力跡象。</p>
<p>展望歐洲央行 6 月的會議，雷恩表示，政策制定者將利用更新的預測和最新數據來評估形勢。他概述了三種潛在的應對措施，具體取決於衝擊的持續時間和嚴重程度，從對臨時性價格激增不採取行動，到如果通脹顯著偏離目標則採取果斷的緊縮措施。最終，他強調，歐洲央行並不承諾特定的加息路徑，將繼續根據數據逐次做出決策，以確保中期價格穩定。</p>
<p>市場目前預計 6 月加息的概率為 86%，並預計年內總共將加息三次。但正如其他歐洲央行政策制定者所指出的，一切都取決於霍爾木茲海峽。如果在 6 月之前達成解決方案，油價大幅下跌，歐洲央行可能會暫停加息。</p>

歐洲斯托克 50 指數 ETF - SPDR

L5EW

<p>歐洲央行的雷恩表示，貨幣政策不應僅僅依賴於油價，強調需要評估能源衝擊對通脹預期和工資的影響。他指出，目前的情況與 2022 年的能源危機不同，並警告不要重蹈過去的政策錯誤。歐洲央行的目標是將通脹維持在約 2%，並將根據數據做出決策。預計 6 月加息的可能性為 86%，歐洲央行的行動將取決於霍爾木茲海峽的局勢發展和通脹壓力的持續性</p>

<ul>
<li>Monetary policy should not be based on oil prices alone</li>
<li>ECB needs to assess whether the energy shock spreads to inflation expectations, wages and core inflation</li>
<li>It's worth preparing for a protracted conflict in the Strait of Hormuz</li>
<li>If events turned out differently, it would be easier to adjust</li>
<li>Key factors are the strength and duration of the energy shock and any broader pass-through into inflation</li>
<li>The energy shock is not, at least so far, quite comparable to the 2022 shock</li>
<li>The ECB is committed to keeping inflation stable around 2% over the medium term</li>
<li>Full report here</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>貨幣政策不應僅僅基於油價</li>
<li>歐洲央行需要評估能源衝擊是否會蔓延至通脹預期、工資和核心通脹</li>
<li>值得為霍爾木茲海峽的長期衝突做好準備</li>
<li>如果事件發展有所不同，調整將會更容易</li>
<li>關鍵因素是能源衝擊的強度和持續時間，以及其對通脹的更廣泛傳導</li>
<li>至少到目前為止，能源衝擊與 2022 年的衝擊並不完全可比</li>
<li>歐洲央行致力於在中期內將通脹穩定在 2% 左右</li>
<li>完整報告請見此處</li>
</ul>
</div><p>ECB's Rehn stated that the ECB should not base its monetary policy solely on fluctuating oil prices despite the uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East. Rehn noted that while the current situation presents a stagflationary shock, with slowing growth and higher inflation in the short term, it remains fundamentally different from the severe energy crisis of 2022. He cautioned against repeating the policy mistakes of 2011, where rate hikes in response to energy spikes were quickly reversed as the broader economy weakened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲央行的雷恩表示，儘管中東衝突帶來了不確定性，但歐洲央行不應僅僅基於波動的油價來制定貨幣政策。雷恩指出，儘管當前形勢呈現出滯漲衝擊，短期內增長放緩和通脹上升，但與 2022 年的嚴重能源危機根本不同。他警告不要重蹈 2011 年的政策錯誤，當時因能源價格飆升而加息的舉措在整體經濟疲軟時迅速被逆轉。</p>
</div><p>Rehn emphasized that the central bank’s decisions will depend on whether higher energy costs translate into broader inflation through wages and long-term inflation expectations. While market-based inflation expectations remain anchored near the 2% target and wage data has been reassuring so far, the ECB is closely monitoring for any signs that this temporary price surge could become a persistent pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雷恩強調，中央銀行的決策將取決於更高的能源成本是否通過工資和長期通脹預期轉化為更廣泛的通脹。儘管基於市場的通脹預期仍然接近 2% 的目標，且工資數據迄今令人安心，但歐洲央行正在密切關注這一臨時價格激增是否可能成為持續的壓力跡象。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead to the ECB’s June meeting, Rehn indicated that policymakers will utilize updated projections and fresh data to assess the situation. He outlined three potential responses depending on the duration and severity of the shock, ranging from no action for temporary spikes to decisive tightening if inflation deviates significantly from the target. Ultimately, he stressed that the ECB is not committed to a specific rate path and will continue to make data-driven decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis to ensure medium-term price stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望歐洲央行 6 月的會議，雷恩表示，政策制定者將利用更新的預測和最新數據來評估形勢。他概述了三種潛在的應對措施，具體取決於衝擊的持續時間和嚴重程度，從對臨時性價格激增不採取行動，到如果通脹顯著偏離目標則採取果斷的緊縮措施。最終，他強調，歐洲央行並不承諾特定的加息路徑，將繼續根據數據逐次做出決策，以確保中期價格穩定。</p>
</div><p>The market is currently pricing in an 86% chance of a rate hike in June with a total of three hikes expected by year-end. But as noted by other ECB policymakers, everything hinges on the Strait of Hormuz. If we get a resolution before June and oil prices fall significantly, the ECB will likely hold off from hiking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場目前預計 6 月加息的概率為 86%，並預計年內總共將加息三次。但正如其他歐洲央行政策制定者所指出的，一切都取決於霍爾木茲海峽。如果在 6 月之前達成解決方案，油價大幅下跌，歐洲央行可能會暫停加息。</p>
</div>