--- title: "大型股是否真的在引領這次市場反彈？市場廣度研究" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286410574.md" description: "最近的股市反彈引發了對市場廣度的擔憂，批評者認為大型股的主導地位可能不可持續。對標普 500 指數（SPX）與等權重 SPX 的分析顯示，儘管 SPX 近期表現優於等權重指數，但歷史數據表明，當推動反彈的股票數量較少時，未來的回報可能不太理想。然而，SPX 在極端相對強勢的過去實例中也曾帶來積極回報，這表明當前的情況不一定意味着看跌趨勢" datetime: "2026-05-14T11:47:22.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286410574.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286410574.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286410574.md) --- # 大型股是否真的在引領這次市場反彈？市場廣度研究 Breadth has been a hot topic during the stock rally over the last six weeks. Critics and bears suggest the fact that a small number of large cap stocks are driving the rally means it can’t be sustained and/or increases the likelihood of a pullback. Comparing the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to the Equal-Weighted SPX gives us a good idea about how the large cap stocks are performing compared to the smaller companies. The SPX is weighted by market capitalization so that larger companies have more influence over the movements of the index. The Equal-Weighted index gives equal weight to each company. The chart below shows the year-to-date return of the SPX and the Equal-Weighted SPX. Through late March, the Equal-Weighted index outperformed the SPX significantly. The SPX was down almost 8% for the year while the Equal-Weighted index was down less than 2%. However, the SPX has come roaring back over the past six weeks to overtake the index. This week I’ll be looking at how stocks perform after huge rallies based on how the SPX performs compared to the Equal-Weighted index. ## Six-Week Relative Strength Going back to 1975, I recorded daily data on the six-week relative strength of the Equal-Weighted index to the SPX. Then I found dates that the SPX was at an all-time high and I broke those down into three groups based on the relative strength. The first table shows our current situation. It shows the times the relative strength of the Equal-Weighted SPX was low (specifically, below 0.98) and the SPX was at an all-time high. Based on this, the bears have a point, especially in the shorter term. In our current situation, for the next month, the SPX averaged a loss of 0.92% with 54% of the returns positive. When the relative strength of the Equal-Weighted index was high (above 1.01), the SPX averaged 1.04%, with over the next month with 72% positive. When the relative strength has been more moderate at all-time highs, the returns are in between those. This pattern holds for the three-month returns. The longer-term returns (six and 12 months) are more mixed. ## Extreme Relative Strength Over the past six weeks, the SPX index outperformance against the Equal-Weighted index has been extreme. Over the past few days, the relative strength of the Equal-Weighted index has been below 0.95. That’s lower than 99% of the readings going back to 1975. The table below summarizes the returns after the Equal-Weighted SPX relative strength falls below 0.95 for the first time in at least a month. There have only been 13 other occurrences. The SPX has performed well after these instances across each of the time frames. The SPX has averaged a return of over 2% over the next month and over 18% for the next year after these instances with 85% of the returns positive. Compare that to the typical one and six-month returns of 0.85% and 10.2%. This next table shows how the Equal-Weighted index performed after these extremely low relative strength readings. The returns from this index have also done well after these instances. Six months after these signals, the Equal-Weighted index gained over 12% on average with 92% of the returns positive. In conclusion, the fact that a small portion of large-cap stocks have outperformed compared to the rest of the market is not, by itself, a bearish signal. Stocks have tended to do well after extreme cases like we’ve just seen. However, the first part of this article showed when the market has been at all-time highs, it has been more bullish going forward when more stocks participate in the rally. ### 相關股票 - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [RSP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/RSP.US.md) - [URSP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/URSP.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOO.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IVV.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [公債殖利率飆升，專家：恐將壓垮高估值股市](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287001514.md) - [美股高貴不貴 企業獲利支撐本益比 市值產業型美股 ETF 看俏](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286988455.md) - [AI 技術驅動股市波動 投資者需警惕泡沫風險與市場不確定性](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286624377.md) - [經貿磋商丨中美同意商對等降税安排 規模各為 300 億美元或更多](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287005126.md) - [摸着理想 L9 過河，突然就變難了？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286870308.md)