--- title: "加拿大帝國商業銀行在第二季度預覽中表示，銀行因資本市場而獲得強勁收益，並下調了國家銀行的評級" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286449525.md" description: "加拿大帝國商業銀行（CIBC）預計銀行在第二季度將實現強勁的盈利，主要受資本市場推動，但建議將投資轉向人壽保險公司。分析師保羅·霍爾登（Paul Holden）將國家銀行的評級下調至中性，理由是對疲弱的就業市場和住房行業中信用損失的擔憂。儘管銀行可能報告每股收益超出預期，但資本市場驅動的收益可能無法維持股價。BMO 仍然是唯一被評級為表現優異的銀行，因為其股本回報率目標有潛在上升空間。國家銀行的股票最近上漲了 20%，目前交易價格為 203.95 美元，下跌 0.34%" datetime: "2026-05-14T17:14:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286449525.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286449525.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286449525.md) --- # 加拿大帝國商業銀行在第二季度預覽中表示，銀行因資本市場而獲得強勁收益，並下調了國家銀行的評級 01:14 PM EDT, 05/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC recommends investors rotate money out of banks into lifecos, even as it expects a strong second-quarter earnings from the sector when it starts reporting on May 27. Analyst Paul Holden, who notes that the strong earnings will be predominately based on capital markets activity, has also downgraded National Bank (NA.TO) to neutral. Holden says the credit outlook is incrementally worse and he is getting more cautious on credit losses given the weakness in Canadian unemployment, a soft housing market in the GTA, and industry credit metrics. Loan growth is expected to remain muted and net interest margin is also likely to be less of a tailwind this quarter. "We would not be surprised to see the banks report EPS beats again this quarter, but perhaps like the U.S. banks, capital markets-driven beats will no longer be good enough to drive the stocks higher." National Bank is downgraded to neutral from outperform, with Holden pointing out that "two years' worth of returns were delivered in three months". The stock is up ~20% in the past three months and is now trading at the highest multiple in the group (9% premium on F2027 consensus). Fiscal 2028 consensus estimates are giving full credit for ROE expansion, Holden adds. BMO (BMO.TO) is Holden's only outperformer-rated bank as there is still upside potential to consensus estimates relative to its 15% ROE target. "With the recovery in U.S. commercial loan growth, there is also a possibility that U.S. balance sheet growth comes in higher than expected. We also think the relative skew to the U.S. can help with impaired PCLs in the near term." BMO is trading at a 5% discount to the group average P/E and a strong quarter that demonstrates continued progress towards ROE targets should help the stock. Price: 203.95, Change: -0.69, Percent Change: -0.34 MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. ### 相關股票 - [CM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CM.US.md) - [BMO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BMO.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [資本市場反彈 6 大壽險 4 月獲利大賺 601 億元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286554669.md) - [摩根士丹利 (中國) 董事長張欣：在目前能源環境下 中國供應鏈韌性非常強大](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286849255.md) - [《A 股焦點》中國銀行與新交所簽署戰略合作備忘錄，股價隨市跌](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287017786.md) - [預期、敍事與估值：資本市場四維定價理論重構（下篇）｜陳新燊](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285857205.md) - [繼光香香雞「香」進資本市場 香繼光 5 月 20 日登錄創櫃板](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286700687.md)