<p>在 5 月 20 日市場收盤後，人工智能芯片巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA +4.39%）將公佈其 2027 財年第一季度的業績。</p>
<p>報告之後，Nvidia 的管理團隊將與華爾街分析師進行電話會議，討論本季度的情況、市場狀況以及這家芯片製造商的未來，會議由首席執行官黃仁勳主持。</p>
<p>根據 Nvidia 過去超出盈利預期的記錄，以及我們已經看到的來自其主要客户的強勁季度報告，我完全預計 Nvidia 將報告另一個出色的季度。然而，我也預測該報告在短期內對股價的影響有限。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk0OTYvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1sb2dvLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="2000" height="1200" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk0OTYvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1sb2dvLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>市場的預期</h2>
<p>市場總是關注分析師對公司季度財報的預估。這些專業人士對股票的預估被平均化，以產生關於盈利和收入的 “共識” 預估，如果公司的結果超出這些水平，市場通常會將其視為一個強勁的季度。</p>
<p>根據 Visible Alpha 的數據，對於 Nvidia 的 2027 財年第一季度（截至 4 月 26 日），分析師的共識預期為（截至 5 月 11 日）：</p>
<ul>
<li>收入：782.9 億美元</li>
<li>稀釋後調整 每股收益（EPS）：1.74 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.04%</li>
</ul>
<p>如果這些數字準確，收入將同比增長近 44%，環比增長約 15%。這也意味着稀釋後的每股收益將同比增長近 115%，環比增長約 7.5%。預計的毛利率大致與上一季度持平。</p>
<p>正如我提到的，Nvidia 在超出盈利預期方面有着強勁的記錄，在過去 23 個季度中有 21 個季度的調整後每股收益超出預期。此外，還有理由相信半導體領域存在強勁的基本趨勢。</p>
<p>在其財報中，Nvidia 通常還會提供正在進行的季度的指導，這在本例中是其 2027 財年的第二季度。如果公司提供的指導優於共識預期，股價應該會受益。通常，指導在市場反應中的重要性超過最近一個季度的結果。</p>
<p>根據 Visible Alpha 的數據，對於其 2027 財年的第二季度，分析師預計：</p>
<ul>
<li>收入：851 億美元</li>
<li>稀釋後調整每股收益：1.91 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.01%</li>
</ul>
<h2>人工智能資本支出正在上升</h2>
<p>儘管今年對 人工智能 超級週期及其能否保持勢頭存在許多擔憂，但沒有證據表明其正在放緩。</p>
<p>在 “七大巨頭” 中，超大規模雲服務商最近公佈了財報，所有公司都顯著提高了今年資本支出的指導——而這些支出大部分將用於建設和裝備人工智能基礎設施。</p>
<p>根據 Yahoo! Finance 的數據，在最近的報告之前，<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的資本支出估計總額約為 6700 億美元，現在的估計接近 7250 億美元。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Nvidia 股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>Nvidia</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(4.39%) $9.92</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$235.75</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$5.7 萬億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$229.24 - $236.54</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$129.16 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>620 萬</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1.7 億</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>71.07%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.02%</p>
<p>這對 Nvidia 來説是個好消息，因為這可能意味着超大規模雲服務商將更多地花費在芯片或建設需要它們的數據中心上，因此這是一個需求走向的良好指標。</p>
<p>此外，<strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong>，全球最大的芯片代工廠，也是幾乎所有 Nvidia 最先進芯片的製造商，最近也報告了強勁的季度業績，這是另一個好兆頭。</p>
<h2>預計將有一個良好的季度，但反應可能平淡</h2>
<p>散户投資者應該理解的一件事是，他們在短期內總是處於劣勢。</p>
<p>不僅有大量數據表明短期投資是多麼困難，而且市場上的大多數機構投資者都是基於 12 個月到 18 個月的持有時間進行投資，因此他們將高度關注公司的短期業績。考慮到機構投資者擁有的資源和知識，他們可能會在報告到來之前就預見到一個良好的季度。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的股票處於歷史最高點，今年上漲了 15.4%，儘管 4 月份經歷了一次大規模拋售。</p>
<p>投資者還應該回顧上個季度的報告：該公司超出了共識預期，並提供了比共識更樂觀的指導，但第二天股價卻下跌。截止目前，Nvidia 的市值接近 5.4 萬億美元，規模如此之大，以至於它必須在盈利上大幅超出投資者的預期，才能在報告後立即看到股價上漲。</p>
<p>散户投資者應確保他們不是基於短期事件對 Nvidia 進行投機；如果他們持有該股票，那應該是因為他們相信其長期前景。</p>
<p>考慮到人工智能的基本趨勢以及公司最近的出色表現和樂觀的指導，目前很難對 Nvidia 做空。雖然我也對人工智能有一些擔憂，但我認為投資者仍然可以放心地長期持有 Nvidia。</p>

英偉達

電子遊戲&體育 ETF - GlobalX

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

<p>英偉達預計將在 5 月 20 日公佈強勁的 2027 財年第一季度財報，預計收入為 782.9 億美元，每股收益為 1.74 美元。儘管這一季度可能表現出色，但由於市場預期較高，股價可能不會出現顯著波動。分析師預測人工智能資本支出的持續增長將惠及英偉達。然而，散户投資者應關注長期前景，而非短期波動，因為英偉達的股價表現可能不會反映即時的盈利結果</p>

<p>After the market closes on May 20, the artificial intelligence chip giant <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +4.39%) will report its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月 20 日市場收盤後，人工智能芯片巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA +4.39%）將公佈其 2027 財年第一季度的業績。</p>
</div><p>The report will be followed by a conference call between Nvidia's management team, led by CEO Jensen Huang, and Wall Street analysts to further discuss the quarter, market conditions, and the chipmaker's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告之後，Nvidia 的管理團隊將與華爾街分析師進行電話會議，討論本季度的情況、市場狀況以及這家芯片製造商的未來，會議由首席執行官黃仁勳主持。</p>
</div><p>Based on Nvidia's track record of beating earnings expectations and the strong quarterly reports that we've already seen from the hyperscalers that are its top customers, I fully expect Nvidia to report another blowout quarter. However, I also predict that report will do little for the stock in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Nvidia 過去超出盈利預期的記錄，以及我們已經看到的來自其主要客户的強勁季度報告，我完全預計 Nvidia 將報告另一個出色的季度。然而，我也預測該報告在短期內對股價的影響有限。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk0OTYvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1sb2dvLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Nvidia headquarters." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F869496%2Fnvidia-headquarters-logo.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>What the market expects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場的預期</h2>
</div><p>The market always looks at analysts' estimates for a company before a quarterly earnings print. The estimates of those professionals covering a stock are averaged to produce &#34;consensus&#34; estimates on earnings and revenues, and if the company's results come in above these levels, the market often tags it as a strong quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場總是關注分析師對公司季度財報的預估。這些專業人士對股票的預估被平均化，以產生關於盈利和收入的 “共識” 預估，如果公司的結果超出這些水平，市場通常會將其視為一個強勁的季度。</p>
</div><p>According to Visible Alpha, for Nvidia's fiscal 2027 first quarter (which ended April 26), the analysts' consensus expectations are (as of May 11):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Visible Alpha 的數據，對於 Nvidia 的 2027 財年第一季度（截至 4 月 26 日），分析師的共識預期為（截至 5 月 11 日）：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Revenue: $78.29 billion</li>
<li>Diluted adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $1.74</li>
<li>Gross margin: 75.04%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>收入：782.9 億美元</li>
<li>稀釋後調整 每股收益（EPS）：1.74 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.04%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>If those numbers prove accurate, revenue would have risen nearly 44% year over year and about 15% from the prior quarter. That also means diluted EPS would be up nearly 115% year over year, and up about 7.5% from the prior quarter. The expected gross margin is roughly even with the prior quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這些數字準確，收入將同比增長近 44%，環比增長約 15%。這也意味着稀釋後的每股收益將同比增長近 115%，環比增長約 7.5%。預計的毛利率大致與上一季度持平。</p>
</div><p>As I mentioned, Nvidia has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, having done so on adjusted EPS in 21 of its last 23 quarters. There's also reason to believe there have been strong underlying trends in the semiconductor space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我提到的，Nvidia 在超出盈利預期方面有着強勁的記錄，在過去 23 個季度中有 21 個季度的調整後每股收益超出預期。此外，還有理由相信半導體領域存在強勁的基本趨勢。</p>
</div><p>During its earnings reports, Nvidia also typically provides guidance for the quarter that is then underway, which in this case is the second quarter of its fiscal 2027. If the company provides guidance that is better than consensus estimates, the stock should benefit. Often, guidance proves more important in how the market responds than the most recent quarter's results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其財報中，Nvidia 通常還會提供正在進行的季度的指導，這在本例中是其 2027 財年的第二季度。如果公司提供的指導優於共識預期，股價應該會受益。通常，指導在市場反應中的重要性超過最近一個季度的結果。</p>
</div><p>For the second quarter of its fiscal 2027, analysts, according to Visible Alpha, expect:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Visible Alpha 的數據，對於其 2027 財年的第二季度，分析師預計：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Revenue: $85.1 billion</li>
<li>Diluted adjusted EPS: $1.91</li>
<li>Gross margin: 75.01%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>收入：851 億美元</li>
<li>稀釋後調整每股收益：1.91 美元</li>
<li>毛利率：75.01%</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>AI capex is climbing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能資本支出正在上升</h2>
</div><p>While there have been many concerns this year about the artificial intelligence supercycle and whether it can maintain its momentum, there's no evidence that it's slowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管今年對 人工智能 超級週期及其能否保持勢頭存在許多擔憂，但沒有證據表明其正在放緩。</p>
</div><p>The hyperscalers in the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; have recently reported earnings, and all have significantly increased their guidance for this year's capital expenditures -- and most of those outlays will be used to build and equip AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 “七大巨頭” 中，超大規模雲服務商最近公佈了財報，所有公司都顯著提高了今年資本支出的指導——而這些支出大部分將用於建設和裝備人工智能基礎設施。</p>
</div><p>Heading into the recent reports, the top of the estimated capex range for <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> totaled about $670 billion, according to Yahoo! Finance. Now, estimates are closer to $725 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Yahoo! Finance 的數據，在最近的報告之前，<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的資本支出估計總額約為 6700 億美元，現在的估計接近 7250 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(4.39%) $9.92</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(4.39%) $9.92</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$235.75</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$235.75</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.7T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.7 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$229.24 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$229.24 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$129.16 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$129.16 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>6.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>620 萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>170M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.7 億</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>71.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>71.07%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.02%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.02%</p>
</div><p>This is good for Nvidia because it likely means hyperscalers will spend more on chips or building data centers that require them, so it's a good indicator of where demand for its wares is headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對 Nvidia 來説是個好消息，因為這可能意味着超大規模雲服務商將更多地花費在芯片或建設需要它們的數據中心上，因此這是一個需求走向的良好指標。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>, the largest chip foundry in the world and the manufacturer of nearly all of Nvidia's most advanced chips, also reported a strong quarter recently, another good sign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，<strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong>，全球最大的芯片代工廠，也是幾乎所有 Nvidia 最先進芯片的製造商，最近也報告了強勁的季度業績，這是另一個好兆頭。</p>
</div><h2>Expect a good quarter followed by a muted reaction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預計將有一個良好的季度，但反應可能平淡</h2>
</div><p>One thing retail investors should understand is that they are always at a disadvantage in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>散户投資者應該理解的一件事是，他們在短期內總是處於劣勢。</p>
</div><p>Not only has a ton of data shown how difficult near-term investing is, but most institutional investors in the market are investing based on 12-month to 18-month holding timelines, so they will be laser-focused on companies' near-term results. Given the resources and knowledge institutional investors have, they are likely to see a good quarter coming well before the report arrives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不僅有大量數據表明短期投資是多麼困難，而且市場上的大多數機構投資者都是基於 12 個月到 18 個月的持有時間進行投資，因此他們將高度關注公司的短期業績。考慮到機構投資者擁有的資源和知識，他們可能會在報告到來之前就預見到一個良好的季度。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia stock is at an all-time high and is up 15.4% this year, despite a big sell-off in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的股票處於歷史最高點，今年上漲了 15.4%，儘管 4 月份經歷了一次大規模拋售。</p>
</div><p>Investors should also look back at last quarter's report: The company beat consensus estimates and provided guidance that was more upbeat than the consensus, only to see its stock fall the next day. With a nearly $5.4 trillion market cap as of this writing, Nvidia is so big that it really has to exceed investor expectations by a wide margin on earnings to see its stock rise immediately after a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者還應該回顧上個季度的報告：該公司超出了共識預期，並提供了比共識更樂觀的指導，但第二天股價卻下跌。截止目前，Nvidia 的市值接近 5.4 萬億美元，規模如此之大，以至於它必須在盈利上大幅超出投資者的預期，才能在報告後立即看到股價上漲。</p>
</div><p>Retail investors should make sure they are not betting on Nvidia based on near-term events; if they own the stock, it should be because they believe in its long-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>散户投資者應確保他們不是基於短期事件對 Nvidia 進行投機；如果他們持有該股票，那應該是因為他們相信其長期前景。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to bet against Nvidia right now, given the underlying trends in AI and the company's recent impressive performances and upbeat guidance. While I, too, have some concerns about AI, I think investors can still comfortably buy and hold Nvidia for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到人工智能的基本趨勢以及公司最近的出色表現和樂觀的指導，目前很難對 Nvidia 做空。雖然我也對人工智能有一些擔憂，但我認為投資者仍然可以放心地長期持有 Nvidia。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Nvidia Will Deliver Another Blowout Earnings Report on May 20, but It Won't Move the Stock in a Big Way

- 英偉達將在 5 月 20 日發佈 2027 財年第一季度財報。  
- 市場預計營收為 782.9 億美元，調整後每股收益為 1.74 美元。  
- 儘管業績良好，股價反應可能較為平淡，投資者需關注長期前景。

Motley Fool

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - Direxion

費城交易所 半導體 ETF - iShares

電子遊戲&電子競技 ETF - VanEck Vectors

視頻遊戲技術 ETF - ETFMG

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

預測：英偉達將在 5 月 20 日發佈另一份出色的財報，但這不會對股價產生顯著影響