--- title: "巴西第一季度的經濟增長保持穩定，但三月份的急劇下降顯示出經濟可能正在降温" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286785026.md" description: "巴西的經濟活動在第一季度增長了 1.3%，儘管 3 月份出現了 0.7% 的收縮，這表明經濟正在降温。服務業作為一個關鍵部門，下降了 0.8%。經濟學家拉斐爾·佩雷斯指出，這反映了在年初強勁增長後的正常化。第一季度的 GDP 增長預計為 1.0%。預計中央銀行將在通脹壓力下繼續放寬貨幣政策，4 月份的年通脹率為 4.39%" datetime: "2026-05-18T12:38:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286785026.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286785026.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286785026.md) --- # 巴西第一季度的經濟增長保持穩定，但三月份的急劇下降顯示出經濟可能正在降温 BRASILIA, May 18 (Reuters) - Brazil's economic activity grew 1.3% in the first quarter from the previous three months, central bank data showed on Monday, despite a sharper-than-expected contraction in March. The IBC-Br index, a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.7% in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a 0.2% drop expected in a Reuters poll. All sectors tracked by the central bank declined, with services, the main driver of Brazil's economy, falling 0.8% from the previous month. Rafael Perez, an economist at Suno Research, said March's performance reflected a normalization after strong growth in the first two months of the year. "Part of this movement reflects a high comparison base, as well as the ongoing effects of restrictive monetary policy on economic activity. Even so, the economy remained resilient in the quarter, mainly supported by growth in services and industry," he wrote in a note to clients. Perez projected that official GDP data, due to be released on May 29, will show growth of 1.0% in the first quarter from the previous three months. That was faster than the fourth quarter of last year when growth was just 0.1% quarter on quarter. The central bank data is compiled from the bank's estimates for agriculture, industry and services, as well as production-related taxes. The data for March adds to signs of an economic slowdown this year, with the central bank expected to continue its monetary easing cycle despite renewed inflationary pressures, partly driven by higher energy prices following the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The IBC-Br index rose 1.8% in the 12 months through March on an unadjusted basis, and increased 3.1% from a year earlier. Economists surveyed weekly by the central bank expect economic activity to increase by 1.85% in 2026, after a 2.3% expansion last year. Policymakers have cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of their last two meetings, bringing the benchmark rate down to 14.50%. The bank targets 3% inflation but annual inflation in Latin America's largest economy accelerated to 4.39% in April. (Reporting by Marcela Ayres; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Susan Fenton) ### 相關股票 - [520870.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/520870.CN.md) - [159100.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159100.CN.md) - [EWZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EWZ.US.md) - [TRI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TRI.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [巴西經濟黃金時刻 外資看好但憂選舉變數](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284664791.md) - [巴西對中國牛肉配額將盡 全球貿易版圖將因此重洗？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285200685.md) - [來稿｜香港「五年規劃」佈局高端服務業不可或缺](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286374547.md) - [墨西哥經濟為何持續疲軟？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286630802.md) - [聯儲局會議紀錄：通脹壓力加劇 更多委員對潛在加息持開放態度](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287128342.md)