--- title: "瑞銀集團在發現供應鏈狀況出現令人擔憂的快速惡化後，重新啓動了供應鏈壓力監測" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286882698.md" description: "瑞銀集團已重新啓動其全球供應鏈壓力指數，原因是全球物流出現了令人擔憂的信號，壓力以自疫情初期以來最快的速度上升。該指數在三月和四月顯著攀升，引發了對中東衝突可能造成的干擾的擔憂。分析師警告稱，霍爾木茲海峽的持續封鎖可能會對全球貿易產生嚴重影響，並可能導致石油短缺，而收益率的上升可能會對股票產生負面影響" datetime: "2026-05-19T09:02:22.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286882698.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286882698.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286882698.md) --- # 瑞銀集團在發現供應鏈狀況出現令人擔憂的快速惡化後，重新啓動了供應鏈壓力監測 One week after Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned CNBC of a "new wake-up call" for global trade amid the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a deepening energy crisis that could intensify further in June, UBS analysts are out with a new note telling clients they have "reactivated" their Global Supply Chain Stress Index in response to increasingly alarming signals emerging across global logistics networks. "**Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic**," UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade wrote in a note on Sunday. Lafourcade explained that global supply chain stress is emerging quickly, with the **index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.** "**We are now reactivating** it to assess disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict," he said, noting that the last time the index was published was in February 2023, or the period in which Covid snarled supply chains. The Global Supply Chain Stress Index is surging again. PMI delivery times are increasing again. The full note can be read by _Professional subscribers_ _here at our new_ Marketdesk.ai _portal._ **Related:** - Maersk CEO Warns Iran War Is A "New Wake-Up Call" For Global Trade - Trump's Project Freedom Likely Triggered By Oil Market's One-Month Countdown To Chaos JPMorgan analysts warned that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked for another four weeks. With that said, June is only a few weeks away, and early indications suggest that continued disruption of the maritime chokepoint could begin to materially affect global trade next month, with risks extending well beyond that if the chokepoint remains shuttered. Separately, with Brent back in triple-digit territory, UBS analyst Dimitrios Laloudakis pointed to surging yields worldwide: > _US yields join G10 peers in estimating rate hikes for 2026. 2y yields comfortably above moving averages. Cross asset implications should drag equities lower, vol higher, and duration to selloff._ It appears something has to give if Hormuz remains choked by the end of the month. ### 相關股票 - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OXY.US.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UBS.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XES.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM-J.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [花旗喊 Brent 原油上看 120 美元 油市低估中東風險](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286971527.md) - [鉅亨速報 - Factset 最新調查：康菲石油 (COP-US) EPS 預估上修至 9.43 元，預估目標價為 143.00 元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286769943.md) - [匯豐將殼牌及雷普索爾升至「買入」評級，同步上調目標價](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286759993.md) - [阿聯核電廠遭無人機攻擊 國際油價漲逾 1%](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286687819.md) - [瑞銀兩年前挖來的中東財富銀行家據悉已有多位跳槽](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286729493.md)