--- title: "印度評級機構稱，印度儲備銀行可能會在整個 2027 財年將回購利率維持在 5.25%" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286915950.md" description: "印度評級機構預測，印度儲備銀行將在 2027 財年之前將回購利率維持在 5.25%，理由是通脹在中央銀行的容忍範圍內保持穩定。國內生產總值（GDP）增長預計為 6.7%，零售通脹為 4.4%。報告強調，全球通脹趨勢和原油價格可能對國內增長造成壓力，同時由於經濟不確定性，私人投資疲軟。預計貿易赤字將達到 GDP 的 10.4%，為十年來最高，受到高企的原油價格和貨幣貶值的影響" datetime: "2026-05-19T04:46:35.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286915950.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286915950.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286915950.md) --- # 印度評級機構稱，印度儲備銀行可能會在整個 2027 財年將回購利率維持在 5.25% The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to either raise or cut the repo rate during the rest of FY27 and is expected to maintain status quo at 5.25 per cent, according to a report by India Ratings and Research, which said inflation is likely to remain within the central bank’s tolerance band despite the expected pass-through of higher fuel prices. The agency projected GDP growth at 6.7 per cent and retail inflation at 4.4 per cent for the year. “We don't expect RBI to increase or reduce the repo rate in the rest of this fiscal. It is likely to remain the same at 5.25 per cent,” the agency said. “The premise that we are using as to why we are anticipating status quo in the key policy rates is that even though we are seeing an upward trajectory in CPI… we are still expecting or projecting the CPI to remain within the RBI tolerance band of less than 6 per cent,” it added. India Ratings said the impact of the West Asia conflict was visible across global inflation trends, crude prices, and currency movements, and was beginning to weigh on India’s domestic growth outlook. It said both private and government consumption were expected to slow due to inflationary pressures, uncertainty around crude prices, and concerns related to monsoon conditions. The agency said private investment activity could remain subdued as companies adopt a “watchful mode” amid slowing export demand, elevated domestic inflation, and uncertainty over consumer spending. It added that sectors dependent on crude oil derivatives were likely to face greater pressure, while services segments such as data centres and global capability centres could provide some support. India Ratings projected the trade deficit at around 10.4 per cent of GDP, which it said would be the highest in the past 10 years, driven by elevated crude prices, currency depreciation, and higher imports of fuel, electronics, gold, and silver. It said the rupee was expected to depreciate by around 6-7 per cent on average during FY27. The report said the 10-year government security yield was likely to remain above 7 per cent amid concerns over fiscal deficit levels and government borrowing. Higher government securities yields could push up borrowing costs for states, corporates, and non-banking financial companies, it added. India Ratings assumed average crude oil prices at $95 per barrel during FY27, with prices averaging $110 per barrel in the first quarter before easing gradually through the year. It estimated that every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices could reduce GDP growth by 44 basis points and increase inflation by 93 basis points. The agency said the government’s fiscal position could face pressure from lower excise duty collections and higher subsidy requirements related to fuel, LPG, and fertilisers. However, it said any government intervention was more likely to be in the form of guarantees and liquidity support rather than direct cash transfers. India Ratings also said the impact of El Niño was likely to become more visible from the second quarter of FY27, while noting that higher irrigation coverage and the increasing share of livestock and forestry within agriculture could cushion the impact on farm output. ### 相關股票 - [EPI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EPI.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDA.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [印度擬大幅降低外國投資者債券投資税率，以遏制盧比貶值](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286378503.md) - [知情人士：印度考慮下調外資債券投資相關税負](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286385065.md) - [墨西哥經濟為何持續疲軟？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286630763.md) - [國際油價飆升 印度 4 年凍漲後 一週二度調漲油價](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286845254.md) - [有證券業人士料市場對美國加息預期升温 港股難有突破](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287006907.md)