<p>日元對美元仍然承壓，但在幾個主要的日元交叉匯率中開始出現警告信號。儘管美元/日元繼續在多個月高位附近交易，但日本財政部（MOF）再次干預的風險正在上升。同時，澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元在維持看漲動能方面遇到困難，增加了日元重新走強的潛力。以下是美元/日元、澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元的最新技術展望。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：ICE</em></p>
<p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如何閲讀 COT 報告以跟蹤外匯市場情緒</li>
<li>美元動能逆轉，日元多頭的案例上升 | COT 報告</li>
<li>澳元展望：隨着通脹風險上升，AUD/USD 回調開始</li>
<li>美元回調暫時擱置，多頭瞄準 99，AUD/USD 空頭磨刀霍霍</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元/日元技術分析：美元對日元</h2>
<h3>美元/日元反彈面臨 MOF 干預風險</h3>
<p>更廣泛的美元環境可能仍然支持，但我也懷疑美元/日元的上行空間可能有限，因為再次干預的風險上升。日本官員繼續警告市場可能採取進一步行動，自 4 月 30 日以來已經至少干預過兩次。因此，我不會排除當局再次出手的可能性，這將使日元對其主要貨幣大幅升值，儘管美元整體強勢。</p>
<p>美元/日元連續第七天收高——這是自 2024 年 6 月以來最強的看漲走勢。日線相對強弱指數（RSI）也在超買區域停滯了幾個交易日，這表明該貨幣對的上行潛力有限，甚至可能出現回調。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>美元/日元 1 小時圖顯示波動性上升</h3>
<p>儘管 1 小時圖仍顯示出穩固的上升趨勢，但在週二的高點附近，雙向波動性有所增加。隨着美元/日元在 159 附近停滯，以及附近的 159.52 日高，空頭可能會試圖在此處抑制反彈。由於再次干預的風險仍然存在，多頭至少可能希望謹慎交易——儘管如果時機把握得當，空頭最終可能會笑到最後。</p>
<p>請注意 158 附近的高成交量節點（HVN）和每週支點，這可能提供一個臨時支撐區。跌破該區域將使 157 附近（接近每週 S1）和 156.36 附近的另一個成交量節點成為焦點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<h2>澳元/日元技術分析：澳元對日元</h2>
<h3>澳元/日元日線圖發出潛在反轉信號</h3>
<p>更廣泛地説，澳元的動能正在轉向，因此 AUD/JPY 也在突破新高方面遇到困難，這一點非常明顯。跟蹤多個貨幣對相對於單一貨幣的表現可以幫助交易者更好地評估反轉的潛力，我在最近幾周標記了 AUD 貨幣對回調的幾個警告信號。</p>
<p>日線圖顯示，AUD/JPY 上週僅勉強創出新高，並且在動能轉向下行之前也未能測試 115。週二的看跌外包日暗示當前的下行趨勢可能尚未結束，使得 50 日指數移動平均線（112.43）、112 附近和 111.30 的低點成為空頭關注的焦點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>澳元/日元 1 小時圖顯示空頭保持控制</h3>
<p>1 小時圖顯示出看跌趨勢，儘管價格正在回調上漲。下跌期間的成交量上升，而反彈期間的成交量下降，表明空頭仍然掌控局面。價格也保持在每週 VWAP 之下，而 VWAP 本身正在下行。</p>
<p>因此，偏向於在阻力區域附近抑制反彈，假設 AUD/JPY 將突破新低並朝向更低的技術水平發展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<h2>瑞士法郎/日元技術分析：瑞士法郎對日元</h2>
<p>如果你放遠一點看，會發現瑞士法郎/日元的更廣泛上升趨勢始於 2000 年 9 月。然而，其最近的主要低點形成於 2025 年 2 月——在外匯市場標準下，這並不算太久。自今年 2 月以來，瑞士法郎/日元大致保持橫盤，價格大多在 200-204 區間內波動。</p>
<p>由於未知原因，瑞士法郎反覆難以維持在 204 以上的漲幅。瑞士法郎/日元在 4 月 21 日剛剛突破這一水平，形成了一個小的射擊之星，隨後看跌動能加速。日本財政部（MOF）懷疑的干預隨後將價格壓回到區間的低點。最近，週二在 202.55 附近的看跌蠟燭暗示可能形成了一個潛在的低高點，這可能標誌着從干預低點反彈的結束。</p>
<ul>
<li>我對瑞士法郎/日元的看法仍然看跌，只要價格保持在週一的高點之下。</li>
<li>空頭可能會在週二的區間內抑制反彈，以改善潛在的風險回報比。</li>
<li>跌破 201 將使 200 附近的價格成為焦點，接近之前擁堵區的高成交量節點（HVN）。</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
<p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

澳元 做多 - CurrencyShares

瑞士法郎 做多 - CurrencyShares

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>日元對美元承壓，日本財政部干預的風險上升。USD/JPY 接近多個月來的高點，但隨着 AUD/JPY 和 CHF/JPY 顯示出疲軟跡象，日元走強的潛力正在增加。技術分析顯示，USD/JPY 的上行空間有限，而 AUD/JPY 和 CHF/JPY 呈現看跌趨勢，這表明交易者在波動和潛在反轉的情況下應謹慎行事</p>

<p>The Japanese yen remains under pressure against the US dollar, but warning signs are beginning to emerge across several key yen crosses. While USD/JPY continues to trade near multi-month highs, the risks of another intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) are rising. At the same time, AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY are struggling to sustain bullish momentum, increasing the potential for broader yen strength to re-emerge. Here is the latest technical outlook for USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元對美元仍然承壓，但在幾個主要的日元交叉匯率中開始出現警告信號。儘管美元/日元繼續在多個月高位附近交易，但日本財政部（MOF）再次干預的風險正在上升。同時，澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元在維持看漲動能方面遇到困難，增加了日元重新走強的潛力。以下是美元/日元、澳元/日元和瑞士法郎/日元的最新技術展望。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072743-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：ICE</em></p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment</li>
<li>US Dollar Momentum Reverses, Case for Yen Longs Rises | COT Report</li>
<li>Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Pullback Begins as Inflation Risks Rise</li>
<li>USD Pullback Put on Ice as Bulls Eye 99, AUD/USD Bears Sharpen Their Claws</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如何閲讀 COT 報告以跟蹤外匯市場情緒</li>
<li>美元動能逆轉，日元多頭的案例上升 | COT 報告</li>
<li>澳元展望：隨着通脹風險上升，AUD/USD 回調開始</li>
<li>美元回調暫時擱置，多頭瞄準 99，AUD/USD 空頭磨刀霍霍</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元技術分析：美元對日元</h2>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Rally Faces MOF Intervention Risks</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元/日元反彈面臨 MOF 干預風險</h3>
</div><p>The broader US dollar environment may remain supportive, but I also suspect upside for USD/JPY could be limited due to the rising risk of another MOF intervention. Japanese officials continue to warn markets of further action, having already intervened at least twice since April 30. Therefore, I would not discount the potential for authorities to step in again and send the Japanese yen sharply higher against its peers, to the detriment of USD/JPY despite broader US dollar strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更廣泛的美元環境可能仍然支持，但我也懷疑美元/日元的上行空間可能有限，因為再次干預的風險上升。日本官員繼續警告市場可能採取進一步行動，自 4 月 30 日以來已經至少干預過兩次。因此，我不會排除當局再次出手的可能性，這將使日元對其主要貨幣大幅升值，儘管美元整體強勢。</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY closed higher for a seventh consecutive day — its strongest bullish run since June 2024. The daily RSI (2) has also remained stuck in overbought territory for several sessions, which points to limited upside potential or even a pullback in the pair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元連續第七天收高——這是自 2024 年 6 月以來最強的看漲走勢。日線相對強弱指數（RSI）也在超買區域停滯了幾個交易日，這表明該貨幣對的上行潛力有限，甚至可能出現回調。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>USD/JPY 1-Hour Chart Shows Rising Two-Way Volatility</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元/日元 1 小時圖顯示波動性上升</h3>
</div><p>While the 1-hour chart still shows a solid uptrend, two-way volatility has increased around Tuesday’s highs. And with USD/JPY stalling around 159 alongside the nearby 159.52 daily high, bears may be looking to fade rallies from here. With the risk of another MOF intervention lingering, bulls may at least want to trade with caution — though if timed correctly, bears could ultimately get the last laugh.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 1 小時圖仍顯示出穩固的上升趨勢，但在週二的高點附近，雙向波動性有所增加。隨着美元/日元在 159 附近停滯，以及附近的 159.52 日高，空頭可能會試圖在此處抑制反彈。由於再次干預的風險仍然存在，多頭至少可能希望謹慎交易——儘管如果時機把握得當，空頭最終可能會笑到最後。</p>
</div><p>Note the high-volume node (HVN) just beneath the 158 handle and weekly pivot point, which could provide an interim support zone. A break beneath it brings the 157 handle (near weekly S1) and another volume node around 156.36 into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請注意 158 附近的高成交量節點（HVN）和每週支點，這可能提供一個臨時支撐區。跌破該區域將使 157 附近（接近每週 S1）和 156.36 附近的另一個成交量節點成為焦點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072757-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳元/日元技術分析：澳元對日元</h2>
</div><h3>AUD/JPY Daily Chart Signals Potential Reversal</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>澳元/日元日線圖發出潛在反轉信號</h3>
</div><p>Momentum has been turning against the Australian dollar more broadly, so the fact that AUD/JPY is also struggling to break to fresh highs is quite telling. Tracking several pairs against a single currency can help traders better assess the potential for reversals, and I have flagged several warning signs of a pullback for AUD pairs in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更廣泛地説，澳元的動能正在轉向，因此 AUD/JPY 也在突破新高方面遇到困難，這一點非常明顯。跟蹤多個貨幣對相對於單一貨幣的表現可以幫助交易者更好地評估反轉的潛力，我在最近幾周標記了 AUD 貨幣對回調的幾個警告信號。</p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows AUD/JPY only managed a marginal new high last week and also struggled to test 115 before momentum turned lower. Tuesday’s bearish outside day suggests the current leg lower may not yet be complete, bringing the 50-day EMA (112.43), the 112 handle, and the 111.30 low into focus for bears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示，AUD/JPY 上週僅勉強創出新高，並且在動能轉向下行之前也未能測試 115。週二的看跌外包日暗示當前的下行趨勢可能尚未結束，使得 50 日指數移動平均線（112.43）、112 附近和 111.30 的低點成為空頭關注的焦點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>AUD/JPY 1-Hour Chart Shows Bears Retain Control</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>澳元/日元 1 小時圖顯示空頭保持控制</h3>
</div><p>The 1-hour chart shows a bearish trend, although prices are retracing higher. Volumes are rising during declines and falling during bounces, suggesting bears remain in control. Prices also remain beneath the weekly VWAP, which is itself trending lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 小時圖顯示出看跌趨勢，儘管價格正在回調上漲。下跌期間的成交量上升，而反彈期間的成交量下降，表明空頭仍然掌控局面。價格也保持在每週 VWAP 之下，而 VWAP 本身正在下行。</p>
</div><p>The bias is therefore to fade rallies around resistance zones on the assumption AUD/JPY will break to fresh lows and head towards lower technical levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，偏向於在阻力區域附近抑制反彈，假設 AUD/JPY 將突破新低並朝向更低的技術水平發展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072809-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>CHF/JPY Technical Analysis: Swiss Franc vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>瑞士法郎/日元技術分析：瑞士法郎對日元</h2>
</div><p>If you zoom out far enough, it becomes clear that CHF/JPY’s broader uptrend began around September 2000. However, its most recent major trough formed in February 2025 — which, by FX market standards, was not that long ago. Since February this year, CHF/JPY has largely traded sideways, with prices mostly contained within the 200–204 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你放遠一點看，會發現瑞士法郎/日元的更廣泛上升趨勢始於 2000 年 9 月。然而，其最近的主要低點形成於 2025 年 2 月——在外匯市場標準下，這並不算太久。自今年 2 月以來，瑞士法郎/日元大致保持橫盤，價格大多在 200-204 區間內波動。</p>
</div><p>For reasons unknown, the Swiss franc has repeatedly struggled to sustain gains above 204. CHF/JPY topped just above this level on April 21, forming a small shooting star before bearish momentum accelerated. Suspected intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) then slammed prices back toward the lows of the range. More recently, Tuesday’s bearish candle near 202.55 suggests a potential lower high may have formed, which could mark an inflection point and the end of the choppy rebound from the intervention low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於未知原因，瑞士法郎反覆難以維持在 204 以上的漲幅。瑞士法郎/日元在 4 月 21 日剛剛突破這一水平，形成了一個小的射擊之星，隨後看跌動能加速。日本財政部（MOF）懷疑的干預隨後將價格壓回到區間的低點。最近，週二在 202.55 附近的看跌蠟燭暗示可能形成了一個潛在的低高點，這可能標誌着從干預低點反彈的結束。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>My bias for CHF/JPY remains bearish while prices remain beneath Monday’s high.</li>
<li>Bears may look to fade rallies within Tuesday’s range to improve the potential reward-to-risk ratio.</li>
<li>A break beneath 201 puts the 200 handle into focus, near the high-volume node (HVN) of a prior congestion zone.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>我對瑞士法郎/日元的看法仍然看跌，只要價格保持在週一的高點之下。</li>
<li>空頭可能會在週二的區間內抑制反彈，以改善潛在的風險回報比。</li>
<li>跌破 201 將使 200 附近的價格成為焦點，接近之前擁堵區的高成交量節點（HVN）。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520072822-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

日元前景：隨着澳元兑日元和瑞士法郎兑日元走弱，美元兑日元可能面臨反轉風險