--- title: "看漲期權購買狂潮對標普 500 指數意味着什麼" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287064704.md" description: "標普 500 指數的市場情緒發生了顯著變化，10 天買入開倉的看漲/看跌比率在一個多月內從 52 周低點上升至高點。這一激增發生在四月強勁表現之後，標誌着該指數五年來的最佳月份。科技硬件行業在看漲期權交易量中領先，而食品生產和電力等行業儘管看漲期權購買量高，卻表現不佳。反向投資策略可能暗示表現不佳的行業和看跌期權數量超過看漲期權的股票具有看漲潛力" datetime: "2026-05-20T12:27:21.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287064704.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287064704.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287064704.md) --- # 看漲期權購買狂潮對標普 500 指數意味着什麼 It’s been a tumultuous few months for stocks, and option buyers have been chasing the momentum. That’s what I gather from the 10-day buy-to-open (BTO) call/put ratio for current S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks. This indicator only tracks option purchases, excluding option selling activity and closing trades. This volume, which we get from three exchanges, is more likely speculative, giving a clearer picture of sentiment. As you can see in the chart, sentiment swung dramatically in a very short period of time. After March -- the worst month for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in a year -- the 10-day BTO call/put ratio fell to 52-week low. This means option buyers were buying puts at the highest rate compared to calls over the preceding year. Since then, the market has surged. April was the best month for the SPX in over five years, and it’s up another 2% so far in May. At the same time, the 10-day BTO call/put ratio went from a 52-week low to a high in just over a month’s time. We have BTO data since 2015, and that’s by far the fastest it’s gone from one extreme to the other. This week I’m looking at the other two times this indicator went from extreme bearish sentiment to bullish in a very short amount of time. Then I’ll focus on which stocks option buyers have been targeting to drive this ratio higher. ## Extreme to Extreme The rapid move from extreme low to extreme high for this indicator is very rare. There have only been two other times since 2015 that the 10-day BTO put/call ratio went from a 52-week low to near a 52-week high in less than three months. This recent time and the 2020 occurrence in the table below are the only two times it went from extreme to extreme. The last time, in July of last year, it didn’t quite get to a 52-week high, but it was close. On a hopeful note, the SPX performed very well going forward after those two instances. The index was up double-digits within six months both times. Hopefully, in six months, it’ll be three for three. ## Sector Breakdown The 10-Day BTO call/put ratio bottomed on the last trading day before Easter, April 2. Since then, the SPX has gained about 12%, while option buyers have purchased 2.1 calls for every put. With that context, let’s look at what sectors option buyers have been betting on and betting against. We track about 40 different sectors, but I’m narrowing down the list to those which have at least eight SPX companies and had at least 50,000 BTO volume since early April. That gives us the 22 sectors listed below sorted by their BTO call/put ratio. The technology hardware sector made up about 35% of total BTO volume over the period. The sector includes Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Micron Technology (MU), which all were in the top ten stocks for BTO volume during the period. This sector performed the best with an average stock return of 38% during the period (INTC returned 115%). The call/put ratio since early April was 2.17, just slightly above the ratio for all stocks. Another observation is, if I’m making a contrarian case, I notice the top two sectors in the list, food producers and electricity, are two of the seven worst performing sectors in the table going by the average stock return. Despite the poor performance since early April, there have been almost six call purchased for each put. At the bottom of the table, construction materials and industrial engineering were two of the top eight sectors by average stock return, yet those are the only two sectors in which more puts were purchased than calls. A contrarian could suspect bullish implications going forward for these sectors. ## Individual Stocks Considering the top 100 SPX stocks by BTO volume, the table below lists the 13 stocks which had more puts bought to open than calls. A contrarian strategy would look at the best performers in this table (i.e. FTNT, LRCX, EBAY, and CAT) and consider a long position. Finally, here are the stocks with the highest BTO call/put ratios since early April. Option buyers seem to be bullish on these names. A contrarian would find the biggest underperformers (NLCH, MOS, PCG, PFE, VST, and NFLX) and avoid them or consider making a bet on further declines. ### 相關股票 - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOO.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IVV.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INTC.US.md) - [AMD.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AMD.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MU.US.md) - [FTNT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FTNT.US.md) - [LRCX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LRCX.US.md) - [EBAY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EBAY.US.md) - [CAT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CAT.US.md) - [MOS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MOS.US.md) - [PCG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PCG.US.md) - [PFE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PFE.US.md) - [VST.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VST.US.md) - [NFLX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NFLX.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVD.DE.md) - [PCG-X.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PCG-X.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [美股高貴不貴 企業獲利支撐本益比 市值產業型美股 ETF 看俏](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286988455.md) - [經貿磋商丨中美同意商對等降税安排 規模各為 300 億美元或更多](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287005126.md) - [美股市場波動加劇，輝達財報與中美關係成焦點](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286865823.md) - [議息紀錄丨聯儲局：通脹如持續高企 加息勢在必行](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287104176.md) - [美國 SEC 下調門檻 旨在「讓 IPO 再次繁榮」｜美股](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287013583.md)