--- title: "印度央行不贊成通過加息來保護盧比，而是優先考慮控制通脹" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287312913.md" description: "印度儲備銀行（RBI）並不傾向於提高利率以捍衞盧比，而是優先考慮控制通脹。消息來源指出，RBI 正在考慮其他措施，例如美元存款計劃和對投資者的税收調整。儘管盧比在能源價格上漲的背景下有所下跌，但官員們認為加息可能會損害經濟增長。目前的通脹水平高於 RBI 的目標，但仍在其容忍範圍內。下次利率決策預計在 6 月 5 日進行，大多數經濟學家並不預期會加息" datetime: "2026-05-21T21:46:18.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287312913.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287312913.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287312913.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # 印度央行不贊成通過加息來保護盧比，而是優先考慮控制通脹 India's central bank does not see interest rate hikes as the best way to defend the embattled rupee, three sources said, a position at odds with markets, reinforcing that inflation - not the currency - ​will guide policy on borrowing costs. The Reserve Bank of India has other levers it has yet ​to deploy, according to the sources familiar with the RBI's thinking, which Reuters reported earlier included options such as dollar ‌deposit schemes for non-resident Indians and tax tweaks for debt investors. All options remain on the table and are under consideration in coordination with the government, one source added. "There doesn't seem to be an urgent need for the central bank to jump into rate hikes," the source said. The stance puts policymakers at odds with market bets for tightening, even as the rupee slides to record lows on an energy-price shock linked to the Iran conflict. Inflation, however, remains subdued and officials fear rate hikes would do little to steady the currency while risking further damage to already slowing growth in Asia's third-biggest economy. Indonesia and the Philippines have raised rates as inflation and currency depreciation risks rise. India's rupee has fallen nearly 6 per cent since the Iran war began late in February and slumped to a record low of nearly 96.96 per dollar on Thursday. Interest rate swap markets are pricing in at least 40 basis points of rate hikes ‌by the RBI over the next three months and more than 100 basis points over the next year. A meaningful currency defence would require steep rate increases, another source said, warning that smaller moves would have little impact while crimping demand. The RBI has historically avoided using interest rates as a primary tool to shore up the rupee, apart from a brief 2013 increase in the marginal standing facility rate. Officials continue to weigh measures to steady the currency, though not all options may be used, a fourth source said. The central bank did not respond to an emailed request for comment. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. The RBI's April forecast of 6.9 per cent ​economic growth for the current financial year is likely to be revised lower, the first source said. **Inflation watch** An oil price spike and a faltering ‌rupee are poised to reignite inflation pressures in India's oil-import-dependent economy, overshooting the central bank's April forecast of 4.6 for the current year. Consumer price index inflation is now trending higher towards 5 per cent or a little above that, the second source said, which is ​still within the RBI's ‌tolerance band of 2-6 per cent although higher than the 4 per cent target. In April, CPI inflation was at 3.48 per cent. India's wholesale inflation surged to 8.3 per cent last month, ‌but it has heavier oil weighting than the CPI basket, and the limited pass-through has softened the impact on consumers. Policymakers are waiting to see how quickly pressures feed into core and headline consumer prices, all three sources said. The central bank's rate-setting panel will announce ‌its next ​decision on June ​5 and held consultations with economists on Thursday. While it gave no signal, Governor Sanjay Malhotra asked whether policy lags could justify a pre-emptive rate hike, said two people familiar with the consultation, who requested anonymity to speak about private discussions. A ‌majority of economists do not expect ​a rate hike in June but some including the likes of Standard Chartered are wagering on a tightening. ### 相關股票 - [EPI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EPI.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDA.US.md) - [IMVP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IMVP.US.md) - [TRI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TRI.US.md) - [02888.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02888.HK.md) - [STAN.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/STAN.UK.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [高盛目前預計下週美聯儲公開市場委員會將加息 25 個基點](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298783291.md) - [油價上漲，進一步支持加息的理由](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298846410.md) - [為什麼加息實際上可能會帶來利好](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298759894.md) - [美聯儲正準備加息。如果加息無效，該怎麼辦？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298894163.md) - [如果美聯儲加息，美國股市會如何表現？在上次加息後，三大主要指數先是下跌，然後又上漲](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/299062137.md) --- > **免責聲明: 本文僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。**