--- title: "Jefferies 解釋稱，導致盧比貶值的是每月的 SIP，而非 CAD" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287323748.md" description: "Jefferies 報告稱，印度盧比近期的貶值主要是由於系統性投資計劃（SIPs）帶來的強勁國內資金流入，使得外國投資者能夠退出一個昂貴的市場。盧比在 2026 年對美元貶值約 7%，成為表現最差的新興市場貨幣之一。儘管如此，Jefferies 指出恢復的潛力，引用了歷史上外資投資（FPI）在顯著貶值後激增的趨勢。當前賬户赤字保持在低位，過去三年的平均值為 GDP 的 0.8%" datetime: "2026-05-21T23:26:40.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287323748.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287323748.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287323748.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Jefferies 解釋稱，導致盧比貶值的是每月的 SIP，而非 CAD The sharp fall in the Indian rupee in the last few months has mostly been triggered by strong domestic flows via the systematic investment plans (SIPs) that provided an exit route to foreign investors who wanted to encash their investments in an expensive market, suggests a recent note by Jefferies. A potential valuation correction, artificial intelligence trade (AI) trade unwinding and the Strait of Hormuz opening for business, the note said, could stem these outflows. "Not current account deficit (CAD), but all-time low capital flows is the culprit for INR pressure. Equity market driven outflows accounted for $78 billion over the last two years, as strong domestic flows provided an easy exit to foreign capital escaping an expensive market," wrote Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies in a coauthored note with Abhinav Sinha and Priyank Shah. According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), net inflows into existing equity schemes climbed to a record ₹38,503 crore in March 2026 and stayed largely flat at ₹38,410 crore in April 2026. The previous high was recorded in October 2024, when existing schemes attracted net inflows of ₹37,840 crore, the data showed. **Rupee** Thus far in calendar year 2026 (CY260, the rupee has depreciated around 7 per cent against the US dollar to surpass the 96 mark and making it one of the worst performing emerging market (EM) currencies during this period. However, there is hope. Jefferies' analysis of past four episodes of sharp (over 10 per cent INR depreciation in 12-months) shows that the FPI flows can see a remarkable upsurge (3 of the 4 episodes) in the subsequent 12-months. "Trend in Net FDI was mixed with Net FDI increasing and declining in 2 time each out of 4 episodes. The same can happen again if AI as the dominant global investment theme slows down. However, a weaker INR has not historically boosted exports. **FPI selling** Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), according to Jefferies' estimates, have sold a net $44 billion worth of Indian stocks since April 2024. Capital account surplus has thus declined to just around 0.5 per cent during FY25-26 (the lowest ever), versus 2.6% surplus during prior 10- years. "Strong domestic flows (strong MF flows thanks to SIPs and tax advantage for equity investments, higher equity allocation by EPFO and NPS) continue to absorb heavy foreign selling in equity markets. Consequently, the balance of payments (BoP) was in negative during the past two years and another negative BoP year is in the offing," Nandurkar said. Over the past three years (FY24–FY26), Jefferies estimates the India's current account deficit (CAD) to have averaged just 0.8% of GDP — its lowest level on record. "We expect the FY27 CAD to remain comfortably contained below 2% of GDP, which remains a manageable level. Our base-case scenario factors in crude oil prices averaging US$90 per barrel (from June onward) and a 10% decline in gold imports," the note said. ### 相關股票 - [EPI.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EPI.US.md) - [FLIN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FLIN.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDA.US.md) - [JEF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JEF.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [據報道，Jefferies 將關閉其外包的固定收益交易部門](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298605020.md) - [印度的股票基金流入量在八月份增長了近五分之一；月度儲蓄計劃的貢獻達到了歷史新高](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298564658.md) - [Enviro Infra Engineers 的股票因獲得價值 224 億盧比的塔塔電力可再生能源訂單而備受關注](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298523734.md) - [Jefferies 維持對 RWE AG (0HA0) 的買入評級](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298480838.md) - [Jefferies 維持對 Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) 的買入評級](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298603408.md) --- > **免責聲明: 本文僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。**