韓國銀行維持利率不變，並上調經濟增長預測——更新

By Kwanwoo Jun

South Korea's central bank held rates steady at its first meeting under Gov. Shin Hyun-song, but kept the door open to policy tightening as it forecast higher growth and inflation.

The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.50% on Thursday, marking the eighth straight meeting without a change.

Twenty-four of 25 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast no change in May. Most economists expect the central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance in the coming months, citing upside risks to economic growth and inflation.

Many expect a rate increase in the third quarter, possibly as early as in July, pointing to strong first-quarter economic growth driven by robust chip exports and higher inflation fueled by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions.

The bank on Thursday raised its growth forecasts for Asia's fourth-largest economy. It now expects gross domestic product to grow 2.6% in 2026, up from its February projection of 2.0%. It also expects the economy to expand 2.1% in 2027, compared with its earlier estimate of 1.8%.

The bank forecasts inflation to average 2.7% this year and 2.3% next year, compared with its previous forecasts of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.

South Korea's trade-dependent economy has remained resilient despite geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Exports surged 48% from a year earlier in April, following a revised 50% jump in March, driven by semiconductor shipments amid strong demand from global technology companies building artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

Consumer inflation accelerated to a 21-month high of 2.6% in April from 2.2% in March, highlighting the impact of Middle East tensions and higher oil prices. Rising inflation is likely to increase pressure on the central bank to join global peers in tightening policy amid the global energy shock.

Analysts had said ahead of the decision that the bank's seven-member board could signal a more hawkish tilt, with at least one dissenting member potentially voting for a rate increase in May.

"Upside risks to growth and inflation have risen, so the board is likely to signal greater readiness to tighten if needed, while continuing to stress conditionality and data dependence," HSBC economist Jin Choi said.

Citigroup economist Jin-Wook Kim said he expects the bank to deliver four rate increases--in July and October 2026, and in January and April 2027.

Write to Kwanwoo Jun at kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 27, 2026 21:36 ET (01:36 GMT)

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