<p>美元情緒連續第二週改善，期貨交易者增加了看漲頭寸，資產管理者將淨多頭頭寸提升至 15 個月來的最高水平。同時，日元空頭繼續增加空頭頭寸，因為美元/日元回升至與日本財政部干預相關的水平。在其他方面，澳元多頭在強勁反彈後削減了頭寸，而對加元的看跌情緒加劇。</p>
<p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如何閲讀 COT 報告以追蹤外匯市場情緒</li>
<li>澳元前景：AUD/USD 延續漲勢，但回調風險依然存在</li>
<li>外匯期貨頭寸：美元反彈停滯，日元空頭回歸 | COT 報告</li>
<li>黃金前景：和平希望支撐黃金，期權市場信號謹慎</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元獲得支持，日元空頭挑戰干預風險</h2>
<h3>COT 報告中的大型投機者頭寸</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="872" height="665" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>美元（DXY）：</strong> 上週淨多頭美元頭寸增加了 59 億美元，達到 150 億美元，而資產管理者的淨多頭頭寸提升至 16,200 份合約，創 15 個月新高。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 期貨頭寸基本保持不變，大型投機者持有 29,400 份淨多頭合約，資產管理者維持 270,000 份可觀的淨多頭頭寸。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 英鎊的頭寸變化不大，交易者將淨空頭頭寸減少了約 4,000 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 高企的總空頭頭寸和持續高位的多頭頭寸表明對日元的情緒可能接近極端。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 大型投機者和資產管理者對瑞士法郎的淨空頭頭寸減少了 3,700 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 上升的未平倉合約和下跌的加元期貨價格表明加元仍面臨下行風險，儘管 USD/CAD 日線圖上的技術信號暗示短期內可能出現回調。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 澳元的淨多頭頭寸在大型投機者和資產管理者中減少了 46,000 份合約，主要是由於該貨幣近期的多頭平倉。</li>
</ul>
<h3>資產管理者頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="877" height="667" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>外匯期貨頭寸 | COT 報告（IMM 數據）</h2>
<h3>美元指數（DXY）期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p>在原油價格保持高位和相互矛盾的頭條新聞繼續模糊中東和平前景的情況下，構建過於看空美元的論點仍然困難。期貨交易者似乎對此表示認同，上週將其有效的淨多頭美元頭寸增加至 150 億美元。59 億美元的增幅標誌着連續第二週的上升，也是七週以來最快的積累速度，將看漲頭寸提升至七週來的最高水平。</p>
<p>按近期標準來看，這可以被視為美元多頭中的情緒極端。然而，頭寸數據表明，交易者在 2020 年至 2025 年間經常將淨多頭頭寸推向 300 億美元，表明當前的頭寸尚未過度。</p>
<p>此外，大型投機者在美元指數（DXY）期貨中轉為淨多頭頭寸，而資產管理者的淨多頭頭寸也提升至 15 個月的新高。總體而言，最新的 COT 報告顯示美元有堅實的支撐，幾乎沒有跡象表明看漲情緒已經達到極端。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1410" height="624" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，ICE，LSEG</em></p>
<h3>USD/JPY 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p>像許多交易者一樣，我繼續關注日元，擔心日本財政部（MOF）可能再次干預。自當局首次干預外匯市場以來，已經過去一個多月，導致美元/日元在一個小時內下跌約 500 個點。</p>
<p>自那時以來，美元/日元已收復大部分損失，但期貨交易者仍在不斷增加日元空頭。事實上，可以説日元期貨的總空頭頭寸已接近情緒極端。正是由於總多頭頭寸仍然高企，淨空頭頭寸尚未發出來自任何交易者羣體的極端信號。</p>
<p>隨着美元/日元交易僅在 160.00 下方 40 個點——這一水平被廣泛視為 MOF 干預的潛在觸發點——外匯交易者可能希望密切關注本週日本的發展，因為加劇波動的風險依然很高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1385" height="733" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAGaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p>上週對 USD/CAD 的淨多頭頭寸在大型投機者中幾乎翻倍，達到 69,000 份合約。淨空頭加元頭寸增加了 37,600 份合約，這是近兩年來最激進的周度變化，也是過去八週中最大的變化之一。資產管理者也首次轉為淨空頭頭寸，令其看跌加元的頭寸達到今年的最高水平。</p>
<p>而這還在加拿大被揭示進入技術性衰退以及政府預算赤字大幅擴大之前。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，兩組加元期貨交易者都增加了空頭頭寸，同時減少了多頭頭寸，使得兩組的淨頭寸均為淨空。然而，雙方都沒有對加元發出情緒極端的信號。此外，儘管最近幾周加元期貨價格下跌，但未平倉合約數量卻在上升，這表明新的空頭頭寸正在進入市場。這可能使得美元/加元在看漲者的 “逢低買入” 觀察名單上，而美元仍然保持看漲的敍述。</p>
<p>儘管如此，美元/加元日線圖在週期高點附近出現關鍵反轉，加元期貨周線圖上出現旋轉頂蠟燭形態，暗示短期內可能出現回調。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1387" height="762" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
<h3>澳元/美元期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
<p>上週，澳元期貨交易者繼續減少看漲頭寸，儘管這一舉動更多是由於平倉而非激進的賣空。大型投機者減少了 17,900 份多頭合約，同時增加了相對温和的 3,500 份空頭，這表明交易者在獲利了結並降低風險，而不是建立明顯的看跌押注。</p>
<p>多頭減少與空頭增加之間的不平衡非常顯著。當交易者通過削減多頭而不是積極建立空頭來急於退出時，這通常表明市場處於修正階段，而不是主要趨勢反轉的開始。這可能使得任何澳元/美元的回調相對有序，即使短期內下行風險依然存在。</p>
<p>在短暫探測到 73 美分以下後，回撤至 70 美分區域並不罕見，並且在更廣泛的看漲框架內很容易發生。在這一階段，期貨頭寸似乎更符合市場喘息的狀態，而不是準備迎接持續看跌趨勢的狀態。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1498" height="559" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
<p>查看完整的 <em>經濟日曆</em></p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

GOLD

中金黃金

<p>美元的看漲情緒增強，期貨交易者的淨多頭頭寸增加至七週以來的最高水平，這得益於高企的油價和中東緊張局勢。相反，日元空頭在潛在的財政部干預水平附近增加了空頭頭寸，而加元空頭在經濟衰退消息後加劇。澳元多頭在反彈後有所減持，歐元/黃金的頭寸則基本保持穩定</p>

<p>US dollar sentiment improved for a second consecutive week, with futures traders increasing bullish exposure and asset managers lifting net-long positions to a 15-month high. At the same time, Japanese yen bears continued to add short exposure as USD/JPY edged back towards levels associated with Ministry of Finance intervention. Elsewhere, Australian dollar bulls trimmed exposure after a strong rally, while bearish sentiment towards the Canadian dollar intensified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元情緒連續第二週改善，期貨交易者增加了看漲頭寸，資產管理者將淨多頭頭寸提升至 15 個月來的最高水平。同時，日元空頭繼續增加空頭頭寸，因為美元/日元回升至與日本財政部干預相關的水平。在其他方面，澳元多頭在強勁反彈後削減了頭寸，而對加元的看跌情緒加劇。</p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment</li>
<li>Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Extends Gains, But Pullback Risks Remain</li>
<li>FX Futures Positioning: Dollar Rebound Stalls as Yen Bears Return | COT Report</li>
<li>Gold Outlook: Peace Hopes Support Gold, Options Market Signals Caution</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如何閲讀 COT 報告以追蹤外匯市場情緒</li>
<li>澳元前景：AUD/USD 延續漲勢，但回調風險依然存在</li>
<li>外匯期貨頭寸：美元反彈停滯，日元空頭回歸 | COT 報告</li>
<li>黃金前景：和平希望支撐黃金，期權市場信號謹慎</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>US Dollar Gains Support as Yen Bears Challenge Intervention Risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元獲得支持，日元空頭挑戰干預風險</h2>
</div><h3>Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>COT 報告中的大型投機者頭寸</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601160744-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>US Dollar (DXY):</strong> Net-long US dollar exposure increased by $5.9 billion to $15 billion last week, while asset managers lifted net-long exposure to a 15-month high of 16.2k contracts.</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> Futures positioning was largely unchanged, with large speculators holding 29.4k net-long contracts and asset managers maintaining a sizeable 270k net-long position.</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> Positioning in the British pound saw little change, with traders reducing net-short exposure by around 4,000 contracts.</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> Elevated gross-short exposure alongside persistently high long positions suggests sentiment towards the Japanese yen may be approaching an extreme.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF:</strong> Combined net-short exposure to the Swiss franc declined by 3.7k contracts across large speculators and asset managers.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD:</strong> Rising open interest and falling Canadian dollar futures prices point to ongoing downside risks for the loonie, although technical signals on the USD/CAD daily chart suggest the potential for a near-term pullback.</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> Net-long Australian dollar exposure fell by a combined 46k contracts among large speculators and asset managers, driven primarily by long liquidation following the currency's recent</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>美元（DXY）：</strong> 上週淨多頭美元頭寸增加了 59 億美元，達到 150 億美元，而資產管理者的淨多頭頭寸提升至 16,200 份合約，創 15 個月新高。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 期貨頭寸基本保持不變，大型投機者持有 29,400 份淨多頭合約，資產管理者維持 270,000 份可觀的淨多頭頭寸。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 英鎊的頭寸變化不大，交易者將淨空頭頭寸減少了約 4,000 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 高企的總空頭頭寸和持續高位的多頭頭寸表明對日元的情緒可能接近極端。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 大型投機者和資產管理者對瑞士法郎的淨空頭頭寸減少了 3,700 份合約。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 上升的未平倉合約和下跌的加元期貨價格表明加元仍面臨下行風險，儘管 USD/CAD 日線圖上的技術信號暗示短期內可能出現回調。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 澳元的淨多頭頭寸在大型投機者和資產管理者中減少了 46,000 份合約，主要是由於該貨幣近期的多頭平倉。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3>Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>資產管理者頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161132-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外匯期貨頭寸 | COT 報告（IMM 數據）</h2>
</div><h3>US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元指數（DXY）期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p>It remains difficult to construct an overly bearish case for the US dollar while crude oil prices remain elevated and conflicting headlines continue to cloud prospects for peace in the Middle East. Futures traders appear to agree, increasing their effective net-long exposure to the US dollar to $15 billion last week. The $5.9 billion increase marked a second consecutive weekly rise and the fastest pace of accumulation in seven weeks, lifting bullish exposure to its highest level in seven weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在原油價格保持高位和相互矛盾的頭條新聞繼續模糊中東和平前景的情況下，構建過於看空美元的論點仍然困難。期貨交易者似乎對此表示認同，上週將其有效的淨多頭美元頭寸增加至 150 億美元。59 億美元的增幅標誌着連續第二週的上升，也是七週以來最快的積累速度，將看漲頭寸提升至七週來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>By recent standards, this could be considered a sentiment extreme among US dollar bulls. However, positioning data show that traders regularly pushed net-long exposure towards $30 billion between 2020 and 2025, suggesting current positioning is not yet stretched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按近期標準來看，這可以被視為美元多頭中的情緒極端。然而，頭寸數據表明，交易者在 2020 年至 2025 年間經常將淨多頭頭寸推向 300 億美元，表明當前的頭寸尚未過度。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, large speculators flipped to a net-long position in US Dollar Index (DXY) futures, while asset managers increased their net-long exposure to a 15-month high. Overall, the latest COT report points to firm support for the US dollar, with few signs that bullish sentiment has yet reached an extreme.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，大型投機者在美元指數（DXY）期貨中轉為淨多頭頭寸，而資產管理者的淨多頭頭寸也提升至 15 個月的新高。總體而言，最新的 COT 報告顯示美元有堅實的支撐，幾乎沒有跡象表明看漲情緒已經達到極端。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161425-6.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，ICE，LSEG</em></p>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/JPY 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p>Like many traders, I have continued to monitor the Japanese yen, wary of another intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF). It has been over a month since authorities first intervened in the currency market, sending USD/JPY down around 500 pips within an hour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像許多交易者一樣，我繼續關注日元，擔心日本財政部（MOF）可能再次干預。自當局首次干預外匯市場以來，已經過去一個多月，導致美元/日元在一個小時內下跌約 500 個點。</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY has since recouped most of those losses, yet futures traders have continued to pile into yen shorts. In fact, it could be argued that gross-short exposure in Japanese yen futures is at, or very near, a sentiment extreme. It is only because gross-long exposure remains elevated that net-short positioning is not yet signalling an extreme from either group of traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那時以來，美元/日元已收復大部分損失，但期貨交易者仍在不斷增加日元空頭。事實上，可以説日元期貨的總空頭頭寸已接近情緒極端。正是由於總多頭頭寸仍然高企，淨空頭頭寸尚未發出來自任何交易者羣體的極端信號。</p>
</div><p>With USD/JPY trading just 40 pips below 160.00—a level widely viewed as a potential trigger for MOF intervention—forex traders may want to keep a close eye on developments in Japan this week, as the risk of heightened volatility remains elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着美元/日元交易僅在 160.00 下方 40 個點——這一水平被廣泛視為 MOF 干預的潛在觸發點——外匯交易者可能希望密切關注本週日本的發展，因為加劇波動的風險依然很高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161351-5.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/CAD 期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p>Net-long exposure to USD/CAD effectively doubled last week to 69,000 contracts among large speculators. The 37,600-contract increase in net-short Canadian dollar exposure was the most aggressive weekly shift in nearly two years, and one of the largest seen in the past eight. Asset managers also flipped to a net-short position for the first time in six weeks, taking their bearish Canadian dollar exposure to its highest level this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週對 USD/CAD 的淨多頭頭寸在大型投機者中幾乎翻倍，達到 69,000 份合約。淨空頭加元頭寸增加了 37,600 份合約，這是近兩年來最激進的周度變化，也是過去八週中最大的變化之一。資產管理者也首次轉為淨空頭頭寸，令其看跌加元的頭寸達到今年的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>And this was before it was revealed that Canada had entered a technical recession and that the government's budget deficit had widened sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而這還在加拿大被揭示進入技術性衰退以及政府預算赤字大幅擴大之前。</p>
</div><p>Notably, both groups of CAD futures traders increased short positions while reducing longs, leaving both cohorts net-short. Yet neither is signalling a sentiment extreme for the Canadian dollar. Furthermore, open interest has been rising while Canadian dollar futures prices have fallen in recent weeks, suggesting fresh short positions are entering the market. That could keep USD/CAD on the 'buy the dip' watchlist for bulls while the US dollar retains its bullish narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，兩組加元期貨交易者都增加了空頭頭寸，同時減少了多頭頭寸，使得兩組的淨頭寸均為淨空。然而，雙方都沒有對加元發出情緒極端的信號。此外，儘管最近幾周加元期貨價格下跌，但未平倉合約數量卻在上升，這表明新的空頭頭寸正在進入市場。這可能使得美元/加元在看漲者的 “逢低買入” 觀察名單上，而美元仍然保持看漲的敍述。</p>
</div><p>That said, a key reversal on the USD/CAD daily chart near cycle highs, combined with a spinning top doji on the Canadian dollar futures weekly chart, hints at the potential for a near-term pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，美元/加元日線圖在週期高點附近出現關鍵反轉，加元期貨周線圖上出現旋轉頂蠟燭形態，暗示短期內可能出現回調。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161332-4.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
</div><h3>AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>澳元/美元期貨頭寸 | COT 報告</h3>
</div><p>AUD futures traders continued to pare back bullish exposure last week, although the move was driven far more by long liquidation than aggressive short selling. Large speculators reduced gross longs by 17.9k contracts while adding a comparatively modest 3.5k shorts, suggesting traders were taking profits and reducing risk rather than establishing outright bearish bets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，澳元期貨交易者繼續減少看漲頭寸，儘管這一舉動更多是由於平倉而非激進的賣空。大型投機者減少了 17,900 份多頭合約，同時增加了相對温和的 3,500 份空頭，這表明交易者在獲利了結並降低風險，而不是建立明顯的看跌押注。</p>
</div><p>The imbalance between falling longs and rising shorts is notable. When traders rush to the exits by cutting longs rather than aggressively building shorts, it often points to a corrective phase rather than the start of a major trend reversal. That could leave any AUD/USD pullback relatively orderly, even if near-term downside risks remain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多頭減少與空頭增加之間的不平衡非常顯著。當交易者通過削減多頭而不是積極建立空頭來急於退出時，這通常表明市場處於修正階段，而不是主要趨勢反轉的開始。這可能使得任何澳元/美元的回調相對有序，即使短期內下行風險依然存在。</p>
</div><p>After briefly probing just below 73 cents, a retreat towards the 70-cent area would not be unusual and could easily unfold within a broader bullish framework. At this stage, futures positioning appears more consistent with a market taking a breather than one preparing for a sustained bearish trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短暫探測到 73 美分以下後，回撤至 70 美分區域並不罕見，並且在更廣泛的看漲框架內很容易發生。在這一階段，期貨頭寸似乎更符合市場喘息的狀態，而不是準備迎接持續看跌趨勢的狀態。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260601161300-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CFTC (COT)，CME，LSEG</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的 <em>經濟日曆</em></p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

外匯期貨持倉：美元多頭回歸，日元空頭挑釁日本財務省