--- title: "印度儲備銀行的貨幣政策：吸引外國儲蓄的迫切需求" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288462573.md" description: "這篇文章強調了印度迫切需要吸引外國儲蓄，因為國內資金流動停滯不前，全球金融壓力上升。儘管在 2026 財年，資金總流入有所增加，但對銀行信貸的依賴卻大幅上升，而非銀行和外國來源則有所下降。隨着國內儲蓄預計將下降，通過 FCNR(B) 等計劃吸引資本流入對於支持投資至關重要。印度央行面臨在全球條件緊張的情況下吸引資本的挑戰，而不提高利率，否則可能進一步抑制增長" datetime: "2026-06-02T09:30:35.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288462573.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288462573.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288462573.md) --- # 印度儲備銀行的貨幣政策：吸引外國儲蓄的迫切需求 The West Asia crisis has shifted the focus to inflation pressures and the negative impact on growth from the fuel price hike. However, there is another metric that captures underlying pressures in the economy but doesn’t receive the attention it deserves. This is the flow of funds, which captures all sources—from bank credit, NBFCs, debt markets, equity markets, and foreign sources such as external commercial borrowings and FDI. In FY26, the total flow of funds in the economy (or net increase during the year) was ₹47tn vs ₹36.6tn in FY25. While this is an impressive jump, it mainly came from bank credit, which accounted for a 62 per cent share, while non-banking sources’ share reduced to just 38 per cent. This is very different from earlier years, when banking and non-banking sectors accounted for nearly 50 per cent share each. The slowdown in mobilisation of funds from the non-banking sector reflects slower NBFC lending and equity issuances. Another factor is that inflows from the foreign sources have stagnated at 11 per cent share, with slowdown in net FDI and ECB inflows. In FY22, foreign sources used to contribute nearly a 30 per cent share of total flows in the economy. The change in composition reflects two factors — first, tighter global financial conditions, and second, the rise in domestic bond yields. Tighter global conditions are indicated by a sharp rise in UST yields, reflecting worsening US fiscal metrics and inflation pressures. This results in a broad-based slowdown in capital inflows across net FDI, FPI, and external commercial borrowings. As a result, India’s capital account surplus has reduced from 2.6 per cent of GDP in FY24 to an estimated 0.1 per cent in FY26. The West Asia crisis has added to these pressures by further tightening global conditions through higher inflation and fiscal risks. Domestically, G-sec yields have risen, reflecting concerns about inflation risks and potential fiscal slippage due to cuts in fuel duties and higher subsidy expenditure. Another factor has been the rise in borrowing by the Centre and state governments. Higher G-sec yields have also raised corporate bond yields, reducing issuances and increasing reliance on bank credit. Hence, the robustness of bank credit reflects not only strong domestic growth but also weaker alternative funding sources. In FY27, gross domestic savings in the economy are estimated to reduce to 30 per cent of GDP from 34 per cent in FY26. This reflects a wider fiscal deficit and lower savings by households and companies due to the surge in fuel costs. The decline in gross domestic savings will constrain the investment cycle, particularly private investment, which has been weak. In such an environment, it is critical for India to attract foreign savings to offset slower domestic savings. For the RBI, the key challenge will be attracting capital inflows when global conditions are likely to tighten due to the West Asia crisis. A possible solution would be a capital inflow scheme such as FCNR(B) or external commercial borrowings. To make it viable for both investors and borrowers, the RBI may need to subsidise hedging costs. A rate hike at this juncture isn’t warranted, as inflation remains within the target band (2 per cent to 6 per cent). Moreover, in the coming quarters, the impact on domestic growth is expected to become more visible as higher energy prices affect both corporate margins and consumer demand. * * * _**The writer is chief economist at IDFC First Bank**_ ### 相關股票 - [03404.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03404.HK.md) - [INDY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDY.US.md) - [02836.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02836.HK.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDA.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [盧比承壓，但印度央行料不急於升息](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288181470.md) - [印度取消境外機構投資政府債券的税負 以吸引資本流入及穩定匯率](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288813198.md) - [【經濟瞭望】印度金融動蕩會演變成金融危機嗎？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288950519.md) - [韓國央行行長「鷹氣」十足！ 呼籲及時提高利率](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289548308.md) - [公積金利率決定機制擬調整引市場熱議：會否引發與貨幣政策節奏錯位？多位市場人士認為仍值得商榷](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289462990.md)