<p>【雅加達】印尼市場在週四（6 月 4 日）大幅下跌，印尼盾突破每美元 18,000 的關鍵水平，股市跌至近六年來的最低點，政策不確定性和宏觀經濟逆風令投資者感到恐慌。</p>
<p>印尼盾下跌幅度達到 0.6%，今年累計損失約為 8%，而基準雅加達綜合指數下跌 5%，跌至 2020 年 12 月以來的最低點，隨後有所回升。這兩項資產是今年亞洲表現最差的。債券也出現下跌。</p>
<p>此次拋售發生在投資者對普拉博沃·蘇比安託總統領導下印尼經濟前景和財政狀況愈發謹慎之際。高企的油價進一步加重了政府財政壓力，而對商品出口可能加大國家干預、評級壓力以及即將到來的 MSCI 重新分類決定的擔憂，使資金退居一旁。</p>
<p>BCA Sekuritas 的分析師費利克斯·達爾曼表示：“此次拋售主要是由於印尼盾疲軟創下歷史新低，以及貿易平衡趨軟的壓力，尤其是油品進口增加。” 他補充道：“投資者對政策風險的擔憂也在加劇，包括大規模免費餐飲計劃和潛在的評級壓力等問題，這對整體信心造成了影響。”</p>
<p>這些擔憂在週三表現得尤為明顯，當時股市跌至五年來的最低點，儘管缺乏新的催化劑，印尼盾再次創下歷史新低。這一滑坡凸顯了市場情緒的脆弱，投資者在缺乏任何觸發因素的情況下迅速撤回資金。本週印尼營養局局長的突然解僱——該局是普拉博沃免費餐飲計劃的核心——以及隨後的腐敗調查進一步加劇了不安。</p>
<p>當地證券交易所採取措施安撫投資者的情緒，其代理首席執行官在週四表示，監管機構 “強烈期望” MSCI 維持該國的新興市場地位，並且其基本面依然強勁。</p>
<p>這些宏觀擔憂最明顯的表現之一是當地貨幣的表現，今年以來印尼盾屢創新低，導致中央銀行多次進行干預。BNP Paribas SA、MUFG 銀行和 Mega Capital Sekuritas 預計印尼央行可能在本月加息。</p>
<p>週四，印尼央行確認已介入外匯市場，副行長德斯特里·達瑪揚蒂在一條短信中表示，央行將 “加大幹預力度”，以確保市場正常運作，並保持印尼盾的穩定，符合基本面。</p>
<p>如果印尼盾突破 18,000 的水平，可能會加速外資從當地股票和債券的流出，這一水平已成為政策制定者恢復市場信心的關鍵考驗。今年全球資金已拋售價值 33 億美元的當地股票和 6.53 億美元的債券。</p>
<p>週四，10 年期政府債券收益率上升了 5 個基點，達 6.75%。自年初以來，收益率已上升超過 60 個基點。</p>
<p>BNY 亞太市場策略師韋昆·鐘錶示：“在國內問題（如出口管制和 MSCI 審查）尚未進一步明朗之前，印尼資產仍面臨下行壓力。”</p>
<p>本週，關於印尼信用評級的擔憂再次浮現，協調經濟部長艾爾朗加·哈塔託表示，他與標準普爾全球評級的代表進行了 “年度會議”，但未説明會議何時舉行。他表示，政府利用此次會議強調通過一系列戰略措施維持經濟增長的努力，具體內容在社交媒體上發佈。</p>
<p>惠譽評級和穆迪評級已將對印尼的展望下調至負面，同時保持投資級評級。一些人擔心標準普爾也可能採取類似行動。</p>
<p>為了增強信心，中央銀行推出了一系列措施以支持當地貨幣並吸引資金流入，包括髮行印尼盾計價的債券和收緊美元購買要求。上個月，央行以 50 個基點的加息令市場感到意外。下次政策決定將在 6 月 18 日公佈。</p>
<p>然而，央行的密集干預也付出了代價，印尼的外匯儲備在 4 月份進一步下降，降至近兩年來的最低水平。惠譽警告稱，儲備覆蓋率的急劇下降可能導致負面評級行動。</p>
<p>資本市場監管機構也推出了改革措施以增強信心，儘管許多人對本月晚些時候 MSCI 的決定以及幾隻大盤股從其指數中剔除感到擔憂。彭博社報道。</p>

標普新興亞太 ETF - SPDR

iShares MSCI新興市場ETF

印尼 ETF - Market Vectors

<p>印尼市場在 6 月 4 日大幅下跌，印尼盾兑美元匯率突破 18,000，股市創下六年來的新低。這一暴跌源於普拉博沃總統領導下的政策不確定性、高油價以及對評級下調或 MSCI 重新分類的擔憂。印尼央行已採取干預措施以穩定貨幣，而外國資金則已出售數十億美元的資產。投資者在即將到來的 MSCI 決策和潛在的信用展望修訂前保持謹慎</p>

<p>[JAKARTA] Indonesian markets tumbled on Thursday (Jun 4), with the rupiah breaching the key 18,000-per-US dollar level and stocks hitting a near six-year low, as mounting policy uncertainty and macro headwinds spooked investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>【雅加達】印尼市場在週四（6 月 4 日）大幅下跌，印尼盾突破每美元 18,000 的關鍵水平，股市跌至近六年來的最低點，政策不確定性和宏觀經濟逆風令投資者感到恐慌。</p>
</div><p>The rupiah fell as much as 0.6 per cent, taking its losses this year to about 8 per cent, while the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index slid 5 per cent to the lowest since December 2020 before paring losses. Both assets are Asia’s worst performers this year. Bonds also dropped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼盾下跌幅度達到 0.6%，今年累計損失約為 8%，而基準雅加達綜合指數下跌 5%，跌至 2020 年 12 月以來的最低點，隨後有所回升。這兩項資產是今年亞洲表現最差的。債券也出現下跌。</p>
</div><p>The sell-off comes as investors grow more wary of Indonesia’s economic outlook and fiscal position under President Prabowo Subianto. Elevated oil prices have further strained government finances, while fears of greater state intervention in commodity exports, potential rating pressure and a pending MSCI reclassification decision have driven funds to the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次拋售發生在投資者對普拉博沃·蘇比安託總統領導下印尼經濟前景和財政狀況愈發謹慎之際。高企的油價進一步加重了政府財政壓力，而對商品出口可能加大國家干預、評級壓力以及即將到來的 MSCI 重新分類決定的擔憂，使資金退居一旁。</p>
</div><p>The sell-off is “mainly driven by rupiah weakness hitting record lows and pressure from a softer trade balance, especially with higher oil imports”, said Felix Darmawan, an analyst at BCA Sekuritas. “Investors are also getting more concerned about policy risks – including issues around the large-scale free meal programme and potential rating pressures – which is weighing on overall confidence.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BCA Sekuritas 的分析師費利克斯·達爾曼表示：“此次拋售主要是由於印尼盾疲軟創下歷史新低，以及貿易平衡趨軟的壓力，尤其是油品進口增加。” 他補充道：“投資者對政策風險的擔憂也在加劇，包括大規模免費餐飲計劃和潛在的評級壓力等問題，這對整體信心造成了影響。”</p>
</div><p>Those concerns were on display Wednesday, when stocks fell to a five-year low and the rupiah hit another record low despite a lack of fresh catalysts. The slide underscored just how fragile sentiment has become, with investors quick to pull back even in the absence of any triggers. The abrupt firing this week of the head of Indonesia’s nutrition agency – central to Prabowo’s free meals programme – and a subsequent corruption probe have added to unease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些擔憂在週三表現得尤為明顯，當時股市跌至五年來的最低點，儘管缺乏新的催化劑，印尼盾再次創下歷史新低。這一滑坡凸顯了市場情緒的脆弱，投資者在缺乏任何觸發因素的情況下迅速撤回資金。本週印尼營養局局長的突然解僱——該局是普拉博沃免費餐飲計劃的核心——以及隨後的腐敗調查進一步加劇了不安。</p>
</div><p>The local stock exchange moved to calm investors’ nerves, with its acting chief saying on Thursday that the regulators “strongly expect” MSCI to maintain the nation’s emerging market status and that its fundamentals remain strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當地證券交易所採取措施安撫投資者的情緒，其代理首席執行官在週四表示，監管機構 “強烈期望” MSCI 維持該國的新興市場地位，並且其基本面依然強勁。</p>
</div><p>One of the clearest ways these macro worries are playing out is through the local currency, which has hit successive lows this year, leading to repeated intervention efforts from the central bank. BNP Paribas SA, MUFG Bank and Mega Capital Sekuritas expect Bank Indonesia may raise interest rates as soon as this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些宏觀擔憂最明顯的表現之一是當地貨幣的表現，今年以來印尼盾屢創新低，導致中央銀行多次進行干預。BNP Paribas SA、MUFG 銀行和 Mega Capital Sekuritas 預計印尼央行可能在本月加息。</p>
</div><p>On Thursday, Bank Indonesia confirmed it had stepped into currency markets, with Senior Deputy governor Destry Damayanti saying in a text message that the central bank would “increase the intensity of its interventions” to ensure orderly market functioning and maintain rupiah stability in line with fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，印尼央行確認已介入外匯市場，副行長德斯特里·達瑪揚蒂在一條短信中表示，央行將 “加大幹預力度”，以確保市場正常運作，並保持印尼盾的穩定，符合基本面。</p>
</div><p>A break well beyond 18,000 could accelerate foreign outflows from local stocks and bonds, which has made the level a key test for policymakers seeking to restore confidence in an economy facing mounting headwinds. Global funds have already offloaded US$3.3 billion worth of local stocks this year and another US$653 million worth of bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果印尼盾突破 18,000 的水平，可能會加速外資從當地股票和債券的流出，這一水平已成為政策制定者恢復市場信心的關鍵考驗。今年全球資金已拋售價值 33 億美元的當地股票和 6.53 億美元的債券。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year government bond yield edged higher five basis points to 6.75 per cent on Thursday. Since the start of the year, it’s risen more than 60 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，10 年期政府債券收益率上升了 5 個基點，達 6.75%。自年初以來，收益率已上升超過 60 個基點。</p>
</div><p>“Until there is further clarity on domestic concerns, such as on export control and MSCI review, the pressure remains on the downside for Indonesia assets,” said Wee Khoon Chong, Asia-Pacific market strategist at BNY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNY 亞太市場策略師韋昆·鐘錶示：“在國內問題（如出口管制和 MSCI 審查）尚未進一步明朗之前，印尼資產仍面臨下行壓力。”</p>
</div><p>Concerns about Indonesia’s credit rating resurfaced this week after Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said he met representatives from S&amp;P Global Ratings in an “annual meeting,” without specifying when it took place. He said the government used the meeting to highlight efforts to sustain economic growth through a range of strategic measures, according to a social media post.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週，關於印尼信用評級的擔憂再次浮現，協調經濟部長艾爾朗加·哈塔託表示，他與標準普爾全球評級的代表進行了 “年度會議”，但未説明會議何時舉行。他表示，政府利用此次會議強調通過一系列戰略措施維持經濟增長的努力，具體內容在社交媒體上發佈。</p>
</div><p>Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings have already revised their outlooks on Indonesia to negative while keeping ratings at investment grade. Some are wary that S&amp;P may also follow suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠譽評級和穆迪評級已將對印尼的展望下調至負面，同時保持投資級評級。一些人擔心標準普爾也可能採取類似行動。</p>
</div><p>To boost confidence, the central bank has rolled out a series of measures to support the local currency and attract inflows, including issuance of rupiah-denominated bills and tightening requirements for US dollar purchases. Last month, it surprised markets with a 50-basis-point rate hike. Its next policy decision is due Jun 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了增強信心，中央銀行推出了一系列措施以支持當地貨幣並吸引資金流入，包括髮行印尼盾計價的債券和收緊美元購買要求。上個月，央行以 50 個基點的加息令市場感到意外。下次政策決定將在 6 月 18 日公佈。</p>
</div><p>The central bank’s intensive interventions have come at a cost, though, with the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves falling further in April to the lowest in nearly two years. Fitch has warned that a sharp decline in the reserves coverage might lead to a negative rating action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，央行的密集干預也付出了代價，印尼的外匯儲備在 4 月份進一步下降，降至近兩年來的最低水平。惠譽警告稱，儲備覆蓋率的急劇下降可能導致負面評級行動。</p>
</div><p>Capital market regulators have also rolled out reform measures to boost confidence, though many remain wary about the MSCI’s decision later this month and the removal of several big stocks from its indexes. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資本市場監管機構也推出了改革措施以增強信心，儘管許多人對本月晚些時候 MSCI 的決定以及幾隻大盤股從其指數中剔除感到擔憂。彭博社報道。</p>
</div>

隨着普拉博沃政策風險的增加，印尼市場的動盪進一步加劇