我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以總結文章信息。日本第一季度 GDP 增長率從 2.1% 下調至 1.8% 年化，主要受到企業支出疲軟的影響。儘管經濟放緩，但仍保持復甦軌道，持續支撐市場對日本銀行將在 6 月加息以應對因中東緊張局勢和高能源成本加劇的通脹的預期。市場已基本消化了此次加息，經濟學家預測年內還將有一次加息，但由於全球經濟形勢不確定，建議謹慎對待激進的加息計劃
By Megumi Fujikawa
TOKYO-Japan's economy grew at a slightly slower pace than initially estimated in the first quarter but remained on a recovery track, keeping alive hopes that a rate hike is on the horizon.
Real gross domestic product increased by an annualized 1.8% in the January-March period, compared with the preliminary estimate of 2.1% growth, revised government data showed Monday.
The downward revision was due largely to softer-than-expected capital expenditure, which had been anticipated following recent figures. from the Ministry of Finance. Some economists say the weakness could persist due to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
Corporate spending fell 0.7% from the previous quarter--a reversal from the 0.3% increase estimated initially.
"Higher energy prices and elevated uncertainty will limit consumption and investment activity," said Norihiro Yamaguchi at Oxford Economics.
The economist expects households' real income to deteriorate further as inflation worsens, driven by supply shortages. "Higher costs will also dampen corporate earnings, weighing on investment," he added.
Private consumption increased 0.3%, holding steady from the preliminary report.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates this month to mitigate the burden of rising costs as policymakers grow more worried that the fallout from the conflict will accelerate underlying inflation.
Markets have almost fully priced in a rate increase at the bank's policy meeting next week.
"The outlook for the year ahead is difficult," said Moody's Analytics economist Stefan Angrick. "Slowing inflation and steady nominal pay gains were supposed to lift real incomes in 2026, but the prospect of a fresh jump in inflation pushes that scenario into the distance."
Angrick expects government spending to help the economy avoid a sharp contraction, but significant growth is unlikely this year. The BOJ will likely pursue one more rate hike by year-end after the June move.
However, "an aggressive hiking schedule looks hard to justify," he said.
Write to Megumi Fujikawa at megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 07, 2026 22:29 ET (02:29 GMT)
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