--- title: "瑞銀警告稱，隨着退税帶來的短期刺激效應消退，美國的餐廳正陷入 “困難週期”" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289092924.md" description: "瑞銀分析師 Dennis Geiger 警告稱，美國餐飲行業正處於一個 “困難週期”，因為退税福利逐漸消退，宏觀壓力加大。預計高企的油價、低迷的消費者信心和商品通脹將壓縮支出和利潤率，持續到 2026 年底。儘管面臨這些逆風，Geiger 認為相對於歷史，估值仍然具有吸引力，並將 Dutch Bros、Brinker International 和百勝餐飲視為首選" datetime: "2026-06-08T19:00:39.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289092924.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289092924.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289092924.md) --- # 瑞銀警告稱，隨着退税帶來的短期刺激效應消退，美國的餐廳正陷入 “困難週期” There is certainly a growing consensus on Wall Street that the tax-refund sugar high is fading just as consumers' financial profiles deteriorate. The latest read-through comes from UBS analyst Dennis Geiger, the bank's U.S. restaurants equity research analyst, who warns that a toxic cocktail of macro pressures is likely to crimp restaurant spending in the second half of the year. Geiger warned in a note that elevated gas prices at the pump appear to be offsetting tax-rebate benefits, while lower-income, younger, and Hispanic consumers remain among some of the weakest demand cohorts. "Challenged traffic and sales trends likely largely reflect depressed consumer sentiment across several cohorts, elevated gas prices, and other macro headwinds," the analyst said, adding, "**We are more cautious on restaurant industry trends into 2H26, assuming near-term headwinds persist, rebate check benefits fade, and risk that gas prices stay elevated**." He said that margin pressure will likely persist for restaurants through summer and into fall as commodity inflation remains a problem. Despite the negative backdrop, he pointed out valuations for restaurant stocks look attractive: > _Despite challenged fundamentals, negative investor sentiment, and valuation pressure,_ **_we believe restaurants are in a difficult cycle currently_**_, rather than a longer-term structurally challenged position. Valuations appear attractive relative to history, but with shares likely needing a positive inflection in sales / demand trajectory or favorable macro developments / headlines to realize notable upside._ His top picks are **Dutch Bros, Brinker International, and Yum! Brands, while his least favorite restaurant stocks are Cheesecake Factory and Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.** Geiger's chartpack visualizing restaurant trends: **Sales Trends** **QSR Sales and Traffic Trends** **Casual Dining Trends** **Dismal Consumer Sentiment still a Problem** **** _The full chart pack can be viewed by Professional subscribers here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal._ Geiger's caution for the restaurant industry adds to our theme of emerging consumer stress (read the latest here). ### 相關股票 - [YUM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/YUM.US.md) - [BROS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BROS.US.md) - [EAT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EAT.US.md) - [EATZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EATZ.US.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UBS.US.md) - [CAKE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CAKE.US.md) - [CBRL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CBRL.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [摩根士丹利看好百勝餐飲，下調 Chipotle 評級，兩者增長前景分化](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288590146.md) - [Dutch Bros 是 UBS 最青睞的餐廳股票](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288613021.md) - [WTI 原油走勢：跌破 90 關口！兩大因素預示油價下行風險加劇](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289277364.md) - [分析師警告未來幾周 可能再度出現油價衝擊](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288944163.md) - [中東局勢再度緊張引爆油市 油價短期或衝破 140 美元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289195798.md)