<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC +2.59%）支付非常豐厚的月度股息。該房地產投資信託基金（REIT）的收益率超過 13.5%。這比 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 的 1.1% 收益率高出 10 倍以上。</p>
<p>該 抵押貸款 REIT 自 2020 年重新設定水平以來，一直維持其 月度股息。然而，在美聯儲最近暗示可能開始加息而不是降息之後，這可能會變得更加困難。以下是這種潛在逆風可能對其股息產生的影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU1NjYvYWduYy1pbnZlc3RtZW50LWNvcnAtbG9nby1vbi1zbWFydHBob25lLXdpdGgtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtYmFja2dyb3VuZC1hZ25jLmpwZWcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU1NjYvYWduYy1pbnZlc3RtZW50LWNvcnAtbG9nby1vbi1zbWFydHBob25lLXdpdGgtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtYmFja2dyb3VuZC1hZ25jLmpwZWcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>潛在的政策轉變</h2>
<p>自 2024 年 9 月以來，美聯儲一直在緩慢降低聯邦基金利率。到去年年底，該關鍵借貸利率已降低 175 個基點，降至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的區間。大多數美聯儲觀察者預計，今年將繼續降低利率，可能在年底前將利率接近 3%。</p>
<p>然而，由於伊朗戰爭的影響，美聯儲今年迄今為止保持不變，這給通脹帶來了上行壓力。上個月，核心通脹（美聯儲偏愛的衡量標準）達到了 3.4%，是自 2023 年 10 月以來的最高水平。因此，美聯儲從其政策聲明中刪除了表明未來降息傾向的關鍵措辭，同時暗示可能加息。</p>
<p>這種情緒的轉變影響了機構 MBS 市場（AGNC Investment 的唯一關注點）。首席執行官彼得·費德里科在 第一季度電話會議 上表示，進入今年時，市場假設機構 MBS 供應約為 2500 億美元，抵押貸款利率略低於 6%。然而，隨着抵押貸款利率現在在 6.5% 左右，MBS 供應可能比今年減少 500 億到 700 億美元。新 MBS 的更高收益率對低收益率的舊 MBS 的價值施加了下行壓力。如果美聯儲確實加息，抵押貸款利率可能會進一步上升，進一步壓低 MBS 的價值。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FHTkMucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="AGNC Investment Corp. 股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FHTkMucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AGNC</h2>
<p>AGNC Investment Corp.</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(2.59%) $0.28</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$10.89</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$120 億</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$10.59 - $10.90</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$9.08 - $12.19</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>110 萬</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1490 萬</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>100.00%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>13.56%</p>
<h2>仍然保持溢價</h2>
<p>今年 MBS 市場開局良好，因為特朗普政府專注於降低利率波動和改善住房可負擔性。然而，隨着伊朗戰爭的爆發，3 月份情緒轉為負面，波動性增加。這影響了 AGNC 的 MBS 投資組合的價值，其有形賬面價值下降了 5.6%，降至每股 8.38 美元。</p>
<p>然而，儘管其賬面價值下降，該 REIT 的股價仍繼續以高於賬面價值的溢價交易，利用這一點在此期間發行了 4 億美元的新股。它能夠以約 16% 的槓桿回報率部署這些資本，使這些新投資相較於當時的 13.5% 股息收益率具有增值效應。由於其股價目前高於每股 10.50 美元，該 REIT 可以繼續以高於其賬面價值的溢價出售股票，以進行增值的新投資。</p>
<h2>高風險、高收益的股息股票</h2>
<p>利率變化影響 AGNC Investment 的 MBS 投資組合的價值。該 REIT 與大多數美聯儲觀察者一樣，預計今年利率會下降，從而增加低利率 MBS 的供應。然而，美聯儲最近暗示，可能會在戰爭驅動的通脹上升的情況下恢復加息。雖然這將對其投資組合的價值施加更多下行壓力，但該 REIT 仍然可以以高於賬面價值的溢價發行股票，以購買更高收益的 MBS，這可能使其能夠繼續維持股息。即便如此，這是一種高風險、高收益的收入來源，收入投資者可能無法在未來始終依賴。</p>

美國資本代理公司

AGNC Investment Corp存託優先股F

AGNC Investment-存託優先股E

AGNCM

AGNCN

<p>AGNC Investment 面臨新的挑戰，因為美聯儲暗示由於持續的通脹可能會加息，這與之前的降息預期相悖。這一變化給機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）價值帶來了壓力，影響了 AGNC 的投資組合。儘管如此，AGNC 通過以高於賬面價值的溢價發行股票來資助增值投資，從而維持其高股息收益率，但變化的利率環境增加了收入投資者的風險</p>

<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>( AGNC +2.59%) pays a very lucrative monthly dividend. The real estate investment trust (REIT) yields over 13.5%. That's more than 10 times higher than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s 1.1% yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC +2.59%）支付非常豐厚的月度股息。該房地產投資信託基金（REIT）的收益率超過 13.5%。這比 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 的 1.1% 收益率高出 10 倍以上。</p>
</div><p>The mortgage REIT has maintained its monthly dividend since resetting the level in 2020. However, that could be harder to do after the Federal Reserve recently hinted that it might start raising rates instead of lowering them. Here is how this potential headwind could impact its dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該 抵押貸款 REIT 自 2020 年重新設定水平以來，一直維持其 月度股息。然而，在美聯儲最近暗示可能開始加息而不是降息之後，這可能會變得更加困難。以下是這種潛在逆風可能對其股息產生的影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU1NjYvYWduYy1pbnZlc3RtZW50LWNvcnAtbG9nby1vbi1zbWFydHBob25lLXdpdGgtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtYmFja2dyb3VuZC1hZ25jLmpwZWcmdz0zODQw" alt="AGNC Investment's logo on a mobile phone." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875566%2Fagnc-investment-corp-logo-on-smartphone-with-stock-chart-background-agnc.jpeg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A potential policy shift</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潛在的政策轉變</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve has been slowly reducing the Federal Funds Rate since September 2024. It had lowered that key borrowing rate by 175 basis points by the end of last year to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Most Fed watchers anticipated that it would continue lowering rates this year, likely moving the rate closer to 3% by year's end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2024 年 9 月以來，美聯儲一直在緩慢降低聯邦基金利率。到去年年底，該關鍵借貸利率已降低 175 個基點，降至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的區間。大多數美聯儲觀察者預計，今年將繼續降低利率，可能在年底前將利率接近 3%。</p>
</div><p>However, the Fed has stood pat so far this year amid the war in Iran, which has put upward pressure on inflation. Core inflation, the Fed's preferred measurement, reached 3.4% last month, its highest reading since October 2023. As a result, the Fed has removed key language from its policy statement that indicated a bias toward future rate cuts, while hinting at the possibility of hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，由於伊朗戰爭的影響，美聯儲今年迄今為止保持不變，這給通脹帶來了上行壓力。上個月，核心通脹（美聯儲偏愛的衡量標準）達到了 3.4%，是自 2023 年 10 月以來的最高水平。因此，美聯儲從其政策聲明中刪除了表明未來降息傾向的關鍵措辭，同時暗示可能加息。</p>
</div><p>This sentiment shift has impacted the Agency MBS market (AGNC Investment's sole focus). CEO Peter Federico stated on the first-quarter conference call that, heading into the year, the market assumption was that there would be about $250 billion of Agency MBS supply, with mortgage rates just below 6%. However, with mortgage rates now in the 6.5% range, MBS supply could be $50 billion to $70 billion lower this year. The higher yields on new MBS put downward pressure on the value of legacy MBS with lower yields. If the Fed does raise rates, mortgage rates would likely rise more, further pressuring MBS values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情緒的轉變影響了機構 MBS 市場（AGNC Investment 的唯一關注點）。首席執行官彼得·費德里科在 第一季度電話會議 上表示，進入今年時，市場假設機構 MBS 供應約為 2500 億美元，抵押貸款利率略低於 6%。然而，隨着抵押貸款利率現在在 6.5% 左右，MBS 供應可能比今年減少 500 億到 700 億美元。新 MBS 的更高收益率對低收益率的舊 MBS 的價值施加了下行壓力。如果美聯儲確實加息，抵押貸款利率可能會進一步上升，進一步壓低 MBS 的價值。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FHTkMucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="AGNC Investment Corp. Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAGNC.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AGNC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AGNC</h2>
</div><p>AGNC Investment Corp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC Investment Corp.</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(2.59%) $0.28</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(2.59%) $0.28</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$10.89</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$10.89</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$12B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$120 億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$10.59 - $10.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$10.59 - $10.90</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$9.08 - $12.19</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$9.08 - $12.19</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.1M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>110 萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>14.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1490 萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>100.00%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>100.00%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>13.56%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>13.56%</p>
</div><h2>Still commanding a premium</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然保持溢價</h2>
</div><p>This year started positively for the MBS market as the Trump administration focused on reducing interest rate volatility and improving housing affordability. However, the war with Iran turned sentiment negative in March amid increased volatility. This impacted the value of AGNC's MBS portfolio, as its tangible book value declined by 5.6% to $8.38 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年 MBS 市場開局良好，因為特朗普政府專注於降低利率波動和改善住房可負擔性。然而，隨着伊朗戰爭的爆發，3 月份情緒轉為負面，波動性增加。這影響了 AGNC 的 MBS 投資組合的價值，其有形賬面價值下降了 5.6%，降至每股 8.38 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, while its book value declined, the REIT's stock price continued to trade at a premium to book, which it capitalized on by issuing $400 million in new shares during the period. It was able to deploy that capital at a levered return of around 16%, making these new investments accretive compared to its 13.5% dividend yield at the time. With its share price currently above $10.50 apiece, the REIT can continue to sell stock at a premium to its book value to make accretive new investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，儘管其賬面價值下降，該 REIT 的股價仍繼續以高於賬面價值的溢價交易，利用這一點在此期間發行了 4 億美元的新股。它能夠以約 16% 的槓桿回報率部署這些資本，使這些新投資相較於當時的 13.5% 股息收益率具有增值效應。由於其股價目前高於每股 10.50 美元，該 REIT 可以繼續以高於其賬面價值的溢價出售股票，以進行增值的新投資。</p>
</div><h2>A higher risk, high-yielding dividend stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高風險、高收益的股息股票</h2>
</div><p>Changes in interest rates impact the value of AGNC Investment's MBS portfolio. The REIT, like most Fed watchers, expected that rates would fall this year, increasing the supply of lower-rate MBS. However, the Fed recently hinted that it might resume rate hikes amid the war-driven inflationary uptick. While that would put more downward pressure on the value of its portfolio, the REIT can still issue stock at a premium to buy higher-yielding MBS, which could enable it to continue maintaining its dividend. Even still, it's a higher risk, high-yielding income stream that income investors might not always be able to bank on in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率變化影響 AGNC Investment 的 MBS 投資組合的價值。該 REIT 與大多數美聯儲觀察者一樣，預計今年利率會下降，從而增加低利率 MBS 的供應。然而，美聯儲最近暗示，可能會在戰爭驅動的通脹上升的情況下恢復加息。雖然這將對其投資組合的價值施加更多下行壓力，但該 REIT 仍然可以以高於賬面價值的溢價發行股票，以購買更高收益的 MBS，這可能使其能夠繼續維持股息。即便如此，這是一種高風險、高收益的收入來源，收入投資者可能無法在未來始終依賴。</p>
</div>

AGNC Investment's More Than 13.5% Yield Just Got a New Headwind From the Fed

- AGNC Investment 的月度股息超過 13.5%，遠高於標普 500 的 1.1% 收益率。  
- 美聯儲可能加息對其股息持續性構成挑戰，MBS 市場受到壓力。  
- 儘管賬面價值下降，AGNC 仍能以溢價發行股票進行新投資。

AGNC Investment 超過 13.5% 的收益率剛剛面臨來自美聯儲的新阻力