<p>美國股市在過去一年表現良好，主要得益於對人工智能交易的熱情。<strong>標普 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC +0.79%) 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>(^IXIC +1.52%) 自 2025 年 6 月以來分別上漲了 20% 和 27%。但投資者最近從美聯儲那裏得到了壞消息。</p>
<p>美聯儲官員現在預計 2026 年至少會有一次加息。這將標誌着自 1999 年以來第五輪加息週期的開始，而過去四輪週期通常與熊市相吻合。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY4NzgvbWFya2V0LXJlZC02LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3840" height="2334" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY4NzgvbWFya2V0LXJlZC02LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2026 年加息的可能性大幅增加</h2>
<p>在 12 月，美聯儲將基準利率的目標區間下調至 3.5% 至 3.75%，這代表着四分之一點的降幅。當時，市場預計 2026 年至少會有兩次四分之一點的降息，根據 <strong>CME Group</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具。但由於最近通脹加速，投資者的預期發生了變化。</p>
<p>“美聯儲公開市場委員會（FOMC）最自然的路徑是推遲進一步降息，直到關税、高油價和中東戰爭的其他影響，以及人工智能需求的影響減弱，”<strong>高盛</strong> 的策略師在 6 月初寫道。</p>
<p>FOMC 最新的經濟預測強化了這一觀點。6 月會議後發佈的點陣圖顯示，50% 的美聯儲官員現在認為 2026 年至少需要一次四分之一點的加息。這一比例從 3 月的零上升。此外，大約三分之一的美聯儲官員預計今年至少會有兩次四分之一點的加息。</p>
<h2>加息週期通常與股市修正相吻合</h2>
<p>沃倫·巴菲特認為，利率，尤其是國債利率，是決定股市估值的最重要變量。低利率通常使股票更具吸引力，而高利率則往往使股票吸引力下降。利率對股票有直接和間接的影響。</p>
<ul>
<li>直接影響涉及估值倍數的壓縮。從理論上講，一隻股票的價值是其未來收益的現值總和。較高的利率降低了未來收益的現值，這壓縮了估值，因為當相對安全的債券提供合理的回報時，投資者不願意為股票支付太多。</li>
<li>間接影響涉及更高的借貸成本。當利率上升時，商業投資和消費者支出往往會放緩，因為融資項目和購買的成本更高。反過來，企業利潤往往增長緩慢，這可能對股票施加下行壓力，因為股票的估值通常基於收益。</li>
</ul>
<p>如果美聯儲今年加息，這將代表新一輪緊縮週期的首次加息（即利率上升的時期）。自 1999 年以來，美聯儲已經進行了四次這樣的轉變，而主要股指通常在接下來的三個月內某個時刻跌入修正區間。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>美聯儲轉向加息</th>
<th>標普 500 最大跌幅</th>
<th>納斯達克綜合指數最大跌幅</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1999 年 6 月</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2004 年 6 月</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>(14%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015 年 12 月</td>
<td>(10%)</td>
<td>(15%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 年 3 月</td>
<td>(17%)</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>平均</strong></td>
<td><strong>(10%)</strong></td>
<td><strong>(15%)</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：美聯儲，YCharts。上面的圖表顯示了在美聯儲首次加息後的三個月內，標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數的最大回撤。</p>
<p>如圖所示，在美聯儲首次加息後的三個月內，標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數平均分別下降了 10% 和 15%。在某個情況下，納斯達克實際上下降超過 20%，意味着該指數進入了熊市。</p>
<p>當然，過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，利率的增加也並非板上釘釘。事實上，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的經濟學家認為，隨着通脹比預期更快降温，美聯儲將在 2026 年剩餘的幾個月內保持利率穩定。</p>
<p>儘管如此，投資者應該為波動做好準備。隨着通脹持續高企，加息的可能性會增加，而加息可能會輕易將股市推入修正，特別是在估值已經被拉伸的情況下。標普 500 目前的交易倍數為 20.1 倍前瞻性收益，高於 10 年平均的 19 倍。</p>

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<p>美聯儲現在預計在 2026 年至少會加息一次，轉變了之前對降息的預期。歷史上，這種緊縮週期通常與股市修正相吻合，標普 500 指數和納斯達克指數在首次加息後的三個月內平均分別下跌 10% 和 15%。雖然過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，但高企的通脹和高估的估值表明，投資者應為潛在的波動做好準備</p>

<p>The U.S. stock market has performed well in the past year, in large part because of enthusiasm surrounding the artificial intelligence trade. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC +0.79%) and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC +1.52%) are up 20% and 27%, respectively, since June 2025. But investors recently got some bad news from the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股市在過去一年表現良好，主要得益於對人工智能交易的熱情。<strong>標普 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC +0.79%) 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>(^IXIC +1.52%) 自 2025 年 6 月以來分別上漲了 20% 和 27%。但投資者最近從美聯儲那裏得到了壞消息。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials now anticipate at least one interest rate increase in 2026. That would mark the beginning of the fifth rate-increase cycle since 1999, and the last four cycles generally coincided with bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員現在預計 2026 年至少會有一次加息。這將標誌着自 1999 年以來第五輪加息週期的開始，而過去四輪週期通常與熊市相吻合。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY4NzgvbWFya2V0LXJlZC02LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F876878%2Fmarket-red-6.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The odds of interest-rate increases in 2026 have increased substantially</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年加息的可能性大幅增加</h2>
</div><p>In December, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range on its benchmark interest rate to 3.5% to 3.75%, representing a quarter-point reduction. At the time, the market anticipated at least two more quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, according to <strong>CME Group</strong>'s FedWatch tool. But investors' expectations have changed because of the recent acceleration in inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月，美聯儲將基準利率的目標區間下調至 3.5% 至 3.75%，這代表着四分之一點的降幅。當時，市場預計 2026 年至少會有兩次四分之一點的降息，根據 <strong>CME Group</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具。但由於最近通脹加速，投資者的預期發生了變化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The most natural path for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is to delay further cuts until the effects of tariffs, higher oil prices and other effects of the war in the Middle East, and the effects of artificial intelligence demand have faded,&#34; <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> strategists wrote in early June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美聯儲公開市場委員會（FOMC）最自然的路徑是推遲進一步降息，直到關税、高油價和中東戰爭的其他影響，以及人工智能需求的影響減弱，”<strong>高盛</strong> 的策略師在 6 月初寫道。</p>
</div><p>The FOMC's latest economic projections reinforce that idea. The dot plot published after the June meeting indicates that 50% of Fed officials now believe at least one quarter-point rate increase will be necessary in 2026. That's up from zero in March. Moreover, about one-third of Fed officials expect at least two quarter-point rate increases this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FOMC 最新的經濟預測強化了這一觀點。6 月會議後發佈的點陣圖顯示，50% 的美聯儲官員現在認為 2026 年至少需要一次四分之一點的加息。這一比例從 3 月的零上升。此外，大約三分之一的美聯儲官員預計今年至少會有兩次四分之一點的加息。</p>
</div><h2>Rate-increase cycles have frequently coincided with stock market corrections</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加息週期通常與股市修正相吻合</h2>
</div><p>Warren Buffett believes interest rates, especially those on Treasury bonds, are the single most influential variable in determining stock market valuations over time. Low interest rates generally make stocks more attractive, while high interest rates tend to make stocks less attractive. Interest rates have a direct and indirect impact on equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特認為，利率，尤其是國債利率，是決定股市估值的最重要變量。低利率通常使股票更具吸引力，而高利率則往往使股票吸引力下降。利率對股票有直接和間接的影響。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The direct impact involves the compression of valuation multiples. In theory, a stock is worth the sum of its future earnings discounted to present value. Higher interest rates reduce the present value of future earnings, which compresses valuations because investors aren't willing to pay as much for stocks when relatively safe bonds offer reasonably good returns.</li>
<li>The indirect impact involves higher borrowing costs. Business investments and consumer spending tend to slow when interest rates rise because it's more expensive to finance projects and purchases. In turn, corporate profits tend to grow more slowly, which can put downward pressure on stocks because equities are often valued based on earnings.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>直接影響涉及估值倍數的壓縮。從理論上講，一隻股票的價值是其未來收益的現值總和。較高的利率降低了未來收益的現值，這壓縮了估值，因為當相對安全的債券提供合理的回報時，投資者不願意為股票支付太多。</li>
<li>間接影響涉及更高的借貸成本。當利率上升時，商業投資和消費者支出往往會放緩，因為融資項目和購買的成本更高。反過來，企業利潤往往增長緩慢，這可能對股票施加下行壓力，因為股票的估值通常基於收益。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>If the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates this year, it would represent the first increase in a new tightening cycle (i.e., a period where rates are rising). The Fed has made that pivot four other times since 1999, and the major stock market indexes usually fell into correction territory at some point in the next three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美聯儲今年加息，這將代表新一輪緊縮週期的首次加息（即利率上升的時期）。自 1999 年以來，美聯儲已經進行了四次這樣的轉變，而主要股指通常在接下來的三個月內某個時刻跌入修正區間。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Fed Pivots to Rate Increases</th>
<th>Max Drop in S&amp;P 500</th>
<th>Max Drop in Nasdaq Composite</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>June 1999</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>June 2004</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>(14%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>December 2015</td>
<td>(10%)</td>
<td>(15%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>March 2022</td>
<td>(17%)</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td><strong>(10%)</strong></td>
<td><strong>(15%)</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>美聯儲轉向加息</th>
<th>標普 500 最大跌幅</th>
<th>納斯達克綜合指數最大跌幅</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1999 年 6 月</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2004 年 6 月</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>(14%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015 年 12 月</td>
<td>(10%)</td>
<td>(15%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 年 3 月</td>
<td>(17%)</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>平均</strong></td>
<td><strong>(10%)</strong></td>
<td><strong>(15%)</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data sources: Federal Reserve, YCharts. The chart above shows the maximum drawdown in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite during the three-month period following the Fed's first interest-rate increase in a tightening cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：美聯儲，YCharts。上面的圖表顯示了在美聯儲首次加息後的三個月內，標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數的最大回撤。</p>
</div><p>As shown, following the Fed's first rate increase in a tightening cycle, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have declined by an average of 10% and 15%, respectively, at some point during the next three months. In one instance, the Nasdaq actually fell more than 20%, meaning the index entered a bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如圖所示，在美聯儲首次加息後的三個月內，標普 500 和納斯達克綜合指數平均分別下降了 10% 和 15%。在某個情況下，納斯達克實際上下降超過 20%，意味着該指數進入了熊市。</p>
</div><p>Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, nor are interest-rate increases written in stone. In fact, <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> economists believe the Fed will hold interest rates steady through the remaining months of 2026 as inflation cools more quickly than anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，利率的增加也並非板上釘釘。事實上，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的經濟學家認為，隨着通脹比預期更快降温，美聯儲將在 2026 年剩餘的幾個月內保持利率穩定。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, investors should be prepared for volatility. Higher interest rates become more likely the longer inflation remains elevated, and rate increases could easily drive the stock market into a correction, particularly when valuations are already stretched. The S&amp;P 500 currently trades at 20.1 times forward earnings, a premium to the 10-year average of 19.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，投資者應該為波動做好準備。隨着通脹持續高企，加息的可能性會增加，而加息可能會輕易將股市推入修正，特別是在估值已經被拉伸的情況下。標普 500 目前的交易倍數為 20.1 倍前瞻性收益，高於 10 年平均的 19 倍。</p>
</div>

Stock Market Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve. History Says a Big Drop Could Follow.

- 美國股市因人工智能熱潮表現良好，標普 500 和納斯達克分別上漲 20% 和 27%。  
- 美聯儲預期 2026 年將至少加息一次，歷史上加息週期常伴隨熊市。  
- 高利率將壓縮估值，且借貸成本上升可能減緩企業和消費支出。

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股市投資者剛剛從美聯儲收到壞消息。歷史顯示，可能會出現大幅下跌