--- title: "歷史對購買破發 IPO 的啓示" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293387438.md" description: "SpaceX 是一隻 “破裂的 IPO”，其交易價格低於 135 美元的發行價。對類似案例的歷史分析表明，波動性很高：儘管短期平均回報超過 7%，但六個月的中位回報為-13%，且不到三分之一的案例超過標準普爾 500 指數。儘管贏家的收益可以超過 60%，但購買破裂的 IPO 通常比投資於提供更好一致性和更低波動性的指數風險更大" datetime: "2026-07-21T21:11:54.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/293387438.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293387438.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293387438.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # 歷史對購買破發 IPO 的啓示 Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) -- or **SpaceX** -- is now what Wall Street calls a “broken IPO,” meaning a stock trading below its IPO price. The company was valued at $135 in the largest IPO in history. The stock’s first trade on June 12 was $150, and it closed just above $200 on that day. Since then, however, it has fallen back to Earth and even investors who got in at the IPO price are now at a loss. The IPO price is a psychological benchmark that traders anchor to as a fair valuation. Falling below this level can cause the belief that the stock was overhyped causing selling pressure and a reluctance to purchase the stock until it settles. Additionally, institutions who got in at the IPO price are now in a losing position and may look to sell shares on any rally back toward that level. This week I’ll look at **other broken IPOs** and see if we can determine the chance of further losses compared to overtaking that important IPO price. ## Looking at Broken IPOs We’ve been tracking the major IPOs for some time now. Our list is by no means a comprehensive list and consists mainly of more popular IPOs. Survivorship bias is also prevalent in the list since it includes only stocks currently trading. Despite that caveat, I think this is an insightful study. Using the list of IPOs, I identified instances in which a stock closed at least 25% above its IPO price and then, at some point within the next six months, closed below its IPO price. The table below summarizes the stock returns after a signal was generated. The second table shows what returns would have been achieved by purchasing the S&P 500 Index instead. Based on the table below, expect a lot of volatility. These stocks performed well in the short term based on the average return. Purchasing the stocks led to an average return of more than 7% in the first month. However, only about half of the returns were positive and fewer than half beat the S&P 500 Index. The average return was bullish due to the large upside in the winners. The positive stocks gained 28% on average over the next month and losing stocks fell 15% on average. The longer-term returns are still very volatile but less bullish as far as average return. Purchasing these broken IPOs in these situations would have averaged a six-month return barely above breakeven. The median return was -13%. Not even a third of the returns were positive or beat the S&P 500. The only bright side over the six-month timeframe is that if did land on a winner, it averaged a return of over 60%. Purchasing the S&P 500 Index instead would have returned 7.4% on average with 74% of the returns positive. The one-year returns were still unlikely to beat the index (37%) but the average return of 8.85% was in line with S&P 500 returns. Finally, the table below lists broken IPO signals since 2022. These have been bullish as far as average returns go despite a small percentage of positive returns. ## Lasting Implications Based on the analysis above, buying SPCX here could be a risky play. Broken IPOs within the first six months after being up by a large amount have led to bearish returns over the next six months. Buying the S&P 500 Index would have yielded better returns with a lot less volatility. However, in cases where the stock did gain, returns were huge, averaging a return above 60% over the next six months. ### 相關股票 - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [SPCH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPCH.US.md) - [SPCF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPCF.US.md) - [SPAL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPAL.US.md) - [SNK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SNK.US.md) - [SSPC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SSPC.US.md) - [SPCU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPCU.US.md) - [LOFF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LOFF.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Oppenheimer 表示，六個月前 SpaceX 在人工智能領域幾乎沒有任何進展，但在 600 億美元的 Cursor 交易後，它已經成為 Anthropic 的競爭對手](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297900623.md) - [消息人士稱，白宮施壓美國航天企業缺席巴黎太空峯會](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297949280.md) - [David Sacks 呼籲 AI 公司為特朗普賬户提供資金，表示這將 “改善公眾對 AI 的形象”](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297762770.md) - [SpaceX 的 AI 建設顯露出問題，馬斯克正在調整數據中心團隊](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297820574.md) - [09:17 ET 忠誠度的前沿：Augeo 利用 SpaceXAI 在企業服務的每個受眾中實現 100% 個性化](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297793043.md) --- > **免責聲明: 本文僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。**