倫敦的銅擠壓情況加劇，期貨價格接近歷史紀錄；巴克萊銀行指出了頂級礦業股的選擇
我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以總結文章信息。倫敦銅價在九個交易日內保持在每噸 14,000 美元以上，主要受到短期需求超過供應的強勁反向市場影響。巴克萊分析師 Richard Garchitorena 指出，智利和印度尼西亞的供應受限、倫敦金屬交易所庫存急劇下降以及投機性頭寸上升是推動價格接近歷史高位的關鍵因素。他建議投資像自由港邁克墨倫這樣的礦業股票。法國巴黎銀行也指出，儘管市場處於超買狀態，但仍有突破一月記錄的動能
Copper prices in London have held above $14,000 a ton for nine consecutive sessions, with steep backwardation signaling that near-term demand is outstripping available supply. A confluence of bullish drivers is pushing prices toward record highs, while the key cash-to-three-month spread has widened to its highest level since the 2021 market squeeze.
The spot price traded as much as $543.50 a ton above three-month contracts on the London Metal Exchange, a hallmark of steep backwardation that signals near-term demand is outstripping available supply.
LME copper curve signals deep backwardation:
Three-month futures rose as much as 1.7% to $14,396 a ton on Monday, closing in on January's record of $14,527.50.
Richard Garchitorena, a New York-based Barclays equity research analyst covering North American metals and mining stocks, wrote Monday morning that mining stocks are poised for further gains as copper supplies continue to tighten.
Garchitorena said copper supplies remain constrained for a number of reasons: Chilean production fell 6.7% year over year through June, prompting Cochilco to cut its 2026 forecast to 5.27 million tons, down 2.6%. Antofagasta separately reduced its annual guidance by about 5% after severe weather disrupted its Los Pelambres mine. An outage at Indonesia's Gresik smelter has also delayed shipments, with no restart date established.
He added that LME copper stockpiles have plunged 32% from a month earlier to 205,000 tons, while Comex inventories rose 8% to 735,000 tons as traders await a potential U.S. tariff on refined copper. He also noted that speculative net-long positions increased to 77,123 contracts, up 20% from July.
Garchitorena's preferred individual mining stocks to watch include Freeport-McMoRan, First Quantum Minerals, Hudbay Minerals, Newmont and Agnico Eagle.
Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)
Separately, David Wilson, head of metals strategy at BNP Paribas SA, told clients, "There seems to be momentum for it to get there," referring to the potential for LME copper to exceed the January record. "It's moving into overbought territory, but I don't know if that means anything at the moment, given how tight it is."
"Normally you'd expect to get more Chinese deliveries into the LME," BNP's Wilson said. "But the thing is, why would you deliver to the LME when you can still effectively ship metal into the US?"
Bloomberg noted that the copper squeeze comes "ahead of the third Wednesday of the month delivery date, the main focus of liquidity in the LME's contracts. That may pile pressure onto traders with short positions."