--- title: "歐盟天然氣價格達到 2023 年能源危機水平，而特朗普的 “經濟 D 日” 使霍爾木茲海峽的重開蒙上陰影" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296512018.md" description: "歐洲天然氣價格飆升至每兆瓦時超過 65 歐元，達到 2023 年危機水平，這一情況是由於特朗普對伊朗的 “經濟決戰” 威脅所引發的。這增加了霍爾木茲海峽中斷的風險，限制了歐洲對海灣液化天然氣的獲取。隨着儲存庫存遠低於季節性標準，冬季臨近，分析師警告稱，天然氣和柴油短缺可能導致嚴重的能源危機，進而引發高通脹和寒冷的冬季" datetime: "2026-08-20T15:21:43.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296512018.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296512018.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296512018.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # 歐盟天然氣價格達到 2023 年能源危機水平，而特朗普的 “經濟 D 日” 使霍爾木茲海峽的重開蒙上陰影 European natural gas prices surged to **levels last seen during the energy crisis** triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when severe supply disruptions sent global markets into turmoil. The **catalyst was an overnight** Truth Social post from President Trump declaring "ECONOMIC D-DAY" against Iran. The announcement raises the probability of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime transit corridor for Gulf energy exports. For Europe, continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would constrain access to Gulf LNG, intensify competition for seaborne cargoes, and deepen the continent's reliance on US supplies. With **European storage inventories already well below seasonal norms** and the winter replenishment window narrowing, traders are slapping a premium on natural gas prices on Thursday. Dutch front-month futures, Europe's gas benchmark, **rose as much as 2.5% today and soared above 65 euros per megawatt-hour, a level last seen in 1Q23**. Trump stated in an overnight Truth Social post that, with Tehran's military and military-industrial base reduced to "now rubble" and its "currency worthless," he will unleash severe economic consequences against "**ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran**." Earlier this week, Simon Penn, a London-based UBS macro strategist, focused on **Germany's NatGas storage**, which is only 50% full, compared with 57% a year ago and well below the 2009-25 average of 77%. **Europe, more broadly,** is well below the 2009-25 average of 74%, with storage currently at around 61%. It'snot just low NatGas storage levels that Europeans have to worry about at this time of year, but also a diesel shortage. Combining these two problems, **Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, recently warned that this energy crunch is "what keeps her up at night."** **Must-Reads:** - *"Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night* - Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch - *"Generates A Number Of Risks": UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms* Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats wrote earlier that "**the window to normalize before winter is rapidly closing**." **Translation**: *Lower NatGas stockpiles will put a bid under prices and fuel inflation across the EU.* At this point, **Europeans had better hope that a strong El Niño**would produce relatively mild weather. Otherwise, the continent could face a cold and extremely expensive winter. ### 相關股票 - [FCG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FCG.US.md) - [KOLD.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/KOLD.US.md) - [BOIL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BOIL.US.md) - [UNG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UNG.US.md) - [LNGZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LNGZ.US.md) - [UNL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UNL.US.md) - [GUSH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GUSH.US.md) - [DRIP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DRIP.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UBS.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS.US.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS-K.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [歐洲天然氣：隨着市場評估冬季供應前景，價格回落](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298012391.md) - [全球液化天然氣：受中東緊張局勢和南亞需求推動，亞洲現貨價格創下三年多來新高](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/298024864.md) - [歐洲天然氣：獲利回吐致價格下跌，但冬季風險猶存](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297888146.md) - [衝突加劇供應緊張，美國柴油價格創歷史新高](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297960506.md) - [卡塔爾和阿聯酋液化天然氣船在霍爾木茲海峽外進行船對船轉運](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297738797.md) --- > **免責聲明: 本文僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。**