我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以總結文章信息。Before the U.S. market opened on Aug 20, 2026 (Beijing time), Walmart (WMT) reported Q2 of FY2027 (covering May 1–Jul 31, 2026). Most of the upside vs. estimates came from a one-off tariff rebate, while softer underlying ops intensified market concerns.
Key takeaways:$Walmart.US Details follow.
1) Walmart U.S.: Traffic decline weighed on comps. Core ops in North America saw comps +2.6% YoY, with a clear QoQ decel. Transactions rose just +1.5% (Q1: +3.0%), the main drag, while average ticket was +1.1% (flat vs. Q1).E-comm remained the strongest driver at +24%, contributing ~510bps to comps; store-fulfilled delivery +43%, ads +38% (Walmart Connect ex-VIZIO +43%), Marketplace +52% (Q1: +50%, further accelerating).
2) Sam's Club (U.S.): Outperformed, with faster transactions. Ex-fuel comps were +4.4% (Q1: +3.9%), the only segment with accelerating comps among the three.Transactions rose +7.0%, improving QoQ. Management cited high gas prices as a powerful traffic funnel: Sam's fuel volumes rose +12% YoY in May vs. industry -5%, and fuel members spend 1.6x that of non-fuel members across other categories, while average ticket fell 2.5%, mainly as mix shifted toward lower-ticket, high-frequency groceries and Member's Mark private label substituting higher-priced brands.
3) Walmart Intl: China was the only growth engine. Q2 Intl revenue was $35.2bn, +12.8% YoY. Key markets China, Mexico, and Canada all slowed vs. Q1 and, on profits, higher local wages and e-comm investment drove OP declines outside China.
4) High-margin, asset-light 3P lifted overall profitability. On opex, higher self-insurance claims, D&A from capex, and employee healthcare costs pushed SG&A up 40bps YoY to 21.2%.With a rising mix of 3P + ads + membership, and excluding the one-off rebate ($2.9bn, ~0.5% of annual U.S. sales), OP grew 9.9% YoY, again outpacing revenue growth.
5) Guidance nudged up, but below expectations. FY constant-FX net sales growth was raised to 4.0%–5.0% (from 3.5%–4.5%); Adj. OP to 7.0%–8.5% (from 6.0%–8.0%). As most rebate dollars only flowed into pricing late in Q2, the full cost impact hits Q3; plus Flipkart’s promo timing creates a >100bps sales headwind, so the full-year raise trailed Street expectations.
6) Key financials at a glance:
Dolphin Research view:
On Q2 prints alone, results were solid. The core market concern is softer 2H guidance, with debate centered on the one-off $2.9bn tariff rebate in Q2.In such cases, companies typically have two choices: book it to the P&L and post a pretty EPS, or spend it for strategic gains. Walmart chose the latter — from Jul 6 it rolled out one-time price cuts on 250+ SKUs, with reductions up to 25%.
Dolphin Research sees this as reasonable: using off-P&L one-time funds, Walmart effectively launched a price war without consuming current profits, while traditional grocers lack comparable funding and, per checks, explicitly will not match these temporary cuts. This creates a short window: Walmart can widen the price gap while rivals cannot retaliate. Given Walmart already holds 24% share in U.S. grocery (Kroger 10%, Costco 9%, Albertsons 6%, Publix 5%), this window looks high-ROI for Walmart.
Thus, despite Q3 OP guidance of just 2.0%–4.0%, Dolphin Research believes the strategy is sound if the next few quarters show clear traffic recovery and further share gains in core grocery. The company is in a key phase of accelerating share capture among higher-income cohorts.
On the stock, using the mid-point of the raised full-year Adj. EPS guide at $2.85, 2026E P/E has eased to 36x. While ads + membership + Marketplace continue to grow at double-digit rates underpinning the mid/long-term thesis, near-term pressure could build in FY2028 once the tariff rebate is spent, SNAP cuts fully flow through, and this year's price cuts create a tough traffic base. We would wait for sub-30x, ~$86, to add.
Detailed earnings analysis below
Details:
I. Investment framework
Per Walmart disclosures, revenue growth breaks down into three segments — Walmart U.S., Walmart Intl, and Sam's Club U.S. — with each driven by comps (volume × price), new/closed stores, and e-comm contribution.
(1) Walmart U.S. is the core franchise, FY26 revenue of ~$483.0bn (~68% of total). The format is led by Supercenters, with Neighborhood Markets and Discount Stores as complements. Comps further split into transactions and average ticket as key drivers.
E-comm is the segment's main engine, now ~20%–23% of segment sales. Within e-comm, 1P, 3P Marketplace, Walmart Connect (retail media), and Walmart+ (paid membership) form four pillars, with ads and membership as the core profit drivers.
(2) Walmart Intl spans Mexico & Central America (Walmex), China, Canada, etc., across Walmart stores and Sam's Clubs overseas, with FY26 revenue of ~$130.0bn (~18% of total). E-comm penetration varies: China is >50% (largely Sam's online), India’s Flipkart is a leading platform under Walmart control, run independently and still loss-making but narrowing; Walmex e-comm penetration is ~8%–9%, replicating the U.S. ads + Marketplace model and in early fast-scaling.
(3) Sam's Club U.S. is a membership warehouse club, FY26 revenue of ~$93.0bn (~13% of total). Topline relies on steady comps, while profits leverage membership fee scale and high renewal, with Scan & Go and Club Pickup lifting e-comm penetration. Against Costco, Sam's is more aggressive on pricing, though it still lags in curation and in-club member experience.
II. Walmart U.S.: Traffic decelerated QoQ
1) Volume and price both softened; low-income cohort under pressure.
Walmart U.S. delivered $125.2bn in sales, +3.5% YoY. Ex-fuel comps rose 2.6%, down sharply from Q1's 4.1% and below consensus (3.8%).
By mix, transactions grew just +1.5% (Q1: +3.0%), a clear QoQ slowdown, and Dolphin Research believes persistent high prices in North America, rising fuel costs, and higher rates led lower-income cohorts to cut trips. The $100k+ income cohort continues to trade down into Walmart, but not enough to fully offset weaker low-income traffic. Average ticket was +1.1% (flat vs. Q1).
By category: grocery grew low single digits, with egg deflation a ~60bps drag; growth came from pantry, fresh, and 'better-for-you' innovation. Consumables were led by personal care, beauty, and pets; general merchandise grew low single digits on toys and apparel, with private label mix up 130bps.
On stores, Walmart opened 1 Neighborhood Market and completed ~220 remodels this quarter. YTD, it opened 3 Supercenters and 1 Neighborhood Market, and completed ~280 remodels.
1.2 E-comm and high-margin businesses remained strong.
E-comm was again the standout at +24% (Q1: +26%), contributing ~510bps to comps. Mix-wise, store-fulfilled delivery grew ~43%, with sub-3-hour express now ~37% of store-fulfilled orders.
Dolphin Research believes speed has shifted from a fulfillment KPI to a customer acquisition tool. Fast-delivery users shop more frequently, are more engaged, and are more likely to become Walmart+ members, while Walmart is expanding use cases from grocery/GM into meal solutions (announced a prepared-foods tie-up with Subway this quarter).
3P Marketplace beat expectations, up 52%, accelerating vs. Q1's 50% (already a ~10-quarter high).
Dolphin Research views Marketplace's value not in revenue, but in tilting mix toward higher-margin GM. GM margins are well above grocery, and Walmart avoids inventory risk via 3P vs. 1P in GM — a core lever in management's multi-year margin expansion path.
Ads: Walmart U.S. ads rose 38%, with Walmart Connect (ex-VIZIO) +43%; global ads +38%. An important strategic move this quarter: on Jun 23, Walmart announced a ~$1.4bn acquisition of Vibe.co, its largest M&A in nearly two years.
Vibe.co is a self-serve CTV ad platform focused on SMBs and mid-sized brands. The strategic rationale: Walmart Connect still skews to large advertisers, while SMB long-tail is its most obvious gap vs. Amazon.
With Vibe.co plus VIZIO smart TV assets and recent integrations with Magnite, Yahoo DSP, and Google DV360, Walmart is stitching together 'self-serve + CTV inventory + closed-loop attribution.' If SMB self-serve scales, the ad TAM rises structurally — Walmart's only realistic path to narrow the gap with Amazon on mix.
Membership: U.S. 'membership and other income' rose 15.6%; Walmart+ posted double-digit membership fee growth, with Q2 net adds at a record for the period. On AI, users of Sparky rose ~70% YoY, and Sparky-assisted orders carry ~40% higher basket size than non-assisted. Membership plus ads now contribute roughly one-third of company OP, with subscription-like, recurring characteristics, underpinning profit resilience amid high fuel and softer consumption.
III. Sam's Club: Higher gas prices boosted appeal
Sam's Club (U.S.) posted net sales of $25.7bn, +8.8% YoY, +4.5% ex fuel.
Transactions: +7.0%, accelerating from Q1's +6.2%, and the highest across Walmart segments. Dolphin Research sees two drivers: (1) fuel stations funneled strong traffic in a high gas price environment; (2) continued push on rapid fulfillment — after launching 1-hour delivery in Apr, club fulfillment grew triple digits, now covering 65% of U.S. households within 3 hours, with >25% of fast orders delivered within 1 hour.
Average ticket: -2.5% (Q1: -2.2%). This is not a negative in the club model — it signals 'members buy more for less,' and with profits driven by membership fees rather than product margin, stronger value perception supports renewals.
IV. Intl: Wider divergence; China is the only growth engine
Intl net sales were $35.2bn, +12.8% YoY, including:
Walmex (Mexico & Central America): Price investment failed to drive growth. As pre-disclosed by listed Walmex, Q2 revenue rose 1.9% YoY (+3.2% at constant FX). Mexico comps +1.8% — decomposed into average ticket +2.9% and traffic -1.1%; Central America comps +2.4%. 23 new stores opened in Q2 (21 Mexico, 1 Costa Rica, 1 Guatemala). Walmex also cut its FY constant-FX sales growth guide to 3.5%–4.5%, citing a slower-than-expected consumption recovery.
Dolphin Research highlights two points. First, Mexico traffic weakened further from -0.9% in Q1 to -1.1% in Q2, with comps slowing from 3.1% to 1.8%, suggesting 'price cuts for traffic' has not worked in Mexico. The core reason, in our view, is Mexico's macro purchasing power is contracting, whereas U.S. low-income pressure is being offset by trade-down from higher-income cohorts.
China: Sam's continued to perform well. China constant-FX net sales were $7.0bn, +20.7% YoY, with comps +9.7% (gradually slowing), the fastest within Intl. E-comm grew 26%, and digital sales penetration reached 55%, indicating the model is proven — dark stores, rapid delivery, in-app ordering, and membership have been deeply integrated. Next-leg growth should come more from store expansion and steady same-store compounding rather than a one-off penetration jump.
Canada: E-comm investment phase; profits down. Canada constant-FX net sales were $6.5bn, +6.0%, with comps +4.0%, but OP declined on strategic wage investments. Canada is in a 'profit for penetration' phase — Walmart+ just launched and e-comm grew 35%, both requiring upfront spend, so near-term margin pressure is understandable.
V. Rising high-margin mix continues to lift margins
Q2 GPM expanded 90bps YoY to 26.1%, driven by tariff rebate benefits and mix improvement (notably digital ads).On opex, higher self-insurance, D&A from capex, and employee healthcare all rose, lifting SG&A by 40bps YoY to 21.2%. With the higher-margin mix from 3P + ads + membership, and excluding the one-off rebate ($2.9bn, ~0.5% of annual U.S. sales), OP grew 9.9% YoY, again outpacing revenue.
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Dolphin Research on 'Walmart' — prior analyses:
Earnings take:
May 22, 2026: 'Walmart: Gas Spike! Can the Retail King Hold Up?'
Deep dive:
Apr 21, 2026: 'Walmart: How the $1tn Retail Titan Was Forged'
Risk disclosure and disclaimer: Dolphin Research Disclaimer & General Disclosure