---
title: "沒有通貨膨脹……除非你需要購買食物"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297938320.md"
description: "商品價格，特別是 BCOM 指數中的穀物，因地緣政治、天氣和供應衝擊而飆升。這一上漲開始挑戰當前的低通脹敍事，因為歷史上，通脹預期與商品價格密切相關。儘管利率尚未完全反應，但宏觀信號表明商品通脹正成為一個重要因素，儘管擁擠的頭寸可能導致短期反轉"
datetime: "2026-09-03T16:01:44.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/297938320.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297938320.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/297938320.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# 沒有通貨膨脹……除非你需要購買食物

## **The inflation trade is waking up**

Commodities are starting to send a message. BCOM has exploded higher, grains are accelerating and a convergence of geopolitical, weather and supply shocks is pushing agricultural prices sharply higher.

So far, rates have only partly followed. But with commodities and breakevens historically moving closely together, another leg higher could make the inflation narrative much harder to ignore. Positioning is getting crowded, so expect reversals along the way, but the bigger macro signal is increasingly clear: the commodity move is starting to matter.

### 相關股票

- [DBB.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DBB.US.md)
- [WEAT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/WEAT.US.md)
- [CORN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CORN.US.md)
- [DBA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DBA.US.md)
- [DBC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DBC.US.md)
- [UNG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UNG.US.md)
- [UNL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UNL.US.md)
- [SOYB.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SOYB.UK.md)
- [WEAT.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/WEAT.UK.md)
- [ICOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ICOP.US.md)
- [COPX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/COPX.US.md)
- [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IAU.US.md)
- [LNGZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LNGZ.US.md)
- [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GLD.US.md)
- [PSLV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PSLV.US.md)
- [KOLD.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/KOLD.US.md)
- [SOYB.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SOYB.US.md)
- [SLV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SLV.US.md)
- [159880.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159880.CN.md)
- [GOLD.AU](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GOLD.AU.md)
- [CORN.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CORN.UK.md)

## 相關資訊與研究

- [對華出口持續，墨西哥灣穀物和大豆駁船CIF/FOB報價企穩](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/304032604.md)
- [如果美聯儲在2026年再次加息，我預測這些ETF將成為最明智的買入選擇](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303980578.md)
- [期權熱點｜上周五 SLV 大跌 5%，部分看跌期權飆升 489%](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303897909.md)
- [國際能源署：天然氣市場供應緊張局勢將持續至明年](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/304070505.md)
- [儘管金價較歷史高點回落23%，投資者仍在1個月內向黃金基金投入180億美元。5000美元的目標價是否重燃希望？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303948279.md)

---
> **免責聲明: 本文僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。**