---
title: "The courier industry under anti-involution: J&T Express China growth slows down, why is capital still 'scrambling for shares'?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/31644843.md"
description: "Over the past two years, as domestic internet traffic has approached a stage of saturation and e-commerce competition has intensified, both insiders and outsiders have been speculating and worrying about the future growth of the express delivery industry and whether related companies can hold their ground. After rounds of major promotional events, it has become increasingly clear that the strong players in the express delivery industry are getting stronger, and expanding into multiple markets has become a new mainstream trend. The latter is now becoming J&amp;T Express's strategy to compensate for its shortcomings in the domestic market. As a latecomer, J&amp;T Express has indeed established a foothold in the domestic market, but it is not dominant. Entering 2025, its performance in this market has been mediocre..."
datetime: "2025-07-10T02:42:11.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/31644843.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/31644843.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/31644843.md)
author: "[港股研究社](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/3199113.md)"
---

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# The courier industry under anti-involution: J&T Express China growth slows down, why is capital still 'scrambling for shares'?

In the past two years, due to the domestic internet traffic development reaching a temporary ceiling, the e-commerce industry has intensified, and both inside and outside the industry are speculating and worrying about the future growth of the courier industry and whether related companies can hold their ground.

After rounds of promotional activities, it was found that the trend of the strong getting stronger in the courier industry is becoming more apparent, and multi-market efforts are becoming the new mainstream trend.

The latter is becoming J&T Express's strategy to make up for the domestic market shortcomings. As a latecomer, J&T Express has indeed established a foothold in the domestic market, but it is not strong. After entering 2025, its business volume in this market performed moderately, close to the national courier business volume growth rate of 20.1% in the first five months.

However, the stock price performance is not the same.

Since hitting a historical low on April 9, J&T Express-W (01519.HK) seems to have pressed the rebound button, with the stock price rising by more than 81% in the following three months, continuously refreshing the historical highs of the past year, with an increase of over 4% as of July 10 before the publication.

The explosion of the "Southeast Asian gene" value seems to be the core logic behind this anomaly.

**Southeast Asia surged 66%! J&T's "basic market" is stable, or is the old battlefield fiercer?**

Those who understand the development and expansion history of J&T Express know that it originated in the Southeast Asian market, and then exploded based on China's massive e-commerce industry, with excellent transportation and logistics industry resources, starting to shift to the Chinese market. During this period, it successfully established a foothold in the gaps between logistics giants like SF Express and ZTO Express by collaborating with the e-commerce newcomer Pinduoduo.

Currently, as the "anti-involution" in the Chinese market intensifies, the market business volume growth rate has significantly slowed down, and J&T Express has to worry about the dilemma of being squeezed out of the Chinese market share in advance, with the growth momentum of this part of the business volume clearly starting to weaken.

Recently, J&T Express announced the latest major operating data, showing that in the second quarter and the first half of this year, the total parcel volume reached new highs again. Although the parcel volume in major markets continued to achieve double-digit growth, the differences are still quite significant.

Specifically, as of the second quarter ending June 30, 2025, the total parcel volume reached approximately 7.39 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%; the average daily parcel volume was 81.2 million pieces;

In the first half of the year, the total parcel volume reached 13.99 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 27%; the average daily parcel volume was 76.9 million pieces.

In terms of major markets, the Southeast Asian market's parcel volume growth rate was the strongest, achieving approximately 1.69 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth rate of 65.9%, setting a single-quarter record for the region since the company's listing, with an average daily parcel volume of 18.5 million pieces; in the first half of the year, the total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 57.9% year-on-year to 3.23 billion pieces, with an average daily parcel volume of 17.7 million pieces.

This achievement makes it highly likely for J&T Express to maintain its position as the leader in the Southeast Asian courier market for the sixth consecutive year.

After all, its courier volume growth shows a clear "U-shaped" trend. Data shows that from 2021 to 2023, J&T Express's annual year-on-year growth rates in the Southeast Asian market were 87.3%, 16.3%, and 28.9%, respectively, returning to a 40% growth rate line in 2024, and further increasing to 66% in 2025H2, with the current market showing a clear positive trend.

Secondly, the new market performed well. Due to the continuous expansion and cooperation with upstream international e-commerce platforms like TikTok, Shein, Temu, and local e-commerce platforms like Noon and Salla, while increasing infrastructure investment, J&T Express added 900 new outlets in the new market last year, significantly improving network capacity.

The continuous improvement of infrastructure directly provided the prerequisites for the release of business volume in overseas new markets in 2025. Data shows that J&T Express's parcel volume in emerging markets increased by 23.7% and 21.7% year-on-year in the second quarter and the first half of this year, respectively.

The performance in the Chinese market is also noteworthy. In the first half of the year, the total parcel volume was 10.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with an average daily volume of 58.2 million pieces, continuously strengthening the company's basic market. However, the growth rate in the second quarter significantly slowed down, only 14.7%, showing some signs of growth fatigue.

Next, there is no doubt that J&T Express will enter a "three-pronged" state.

Looking further ahead, when the growth ceiling of mainstream local markets becomes apparent, players like J&T Express with cross-border synergy capabilities will reshape the game rules.

In this global breakout competition, any player will do their utmost to seize the opportunity of sustained growth.

**From overseas to overseas**

How is the overseas expansion model sample that J&T Express has delivered specifically shaped?

If J&T's entry into the Chinese market in 2020 as a "Pinduoduo ally" was a "counterattack battle," then its layout in Southeast Asia is the concentrated explosion of "native advantages."

J&T Express has always been deeply bound to the Southeast Asian e-commerce ecosystem, continuously pushing up and strengthening its leading position in the local market.

On one hand, the unique "platform symbiosis" model drives it to potentially enjoy the single volume dividend.

According to the latest report from Momentum Works, the total GMV of Southeast Asian platform e-commerce reached 128.4 billion USD in 2024, dominated by Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop.

Among them, the first two have self-built logistics systems, but the best-developed and continuously growing old partner TikTok Shop brings "single volume spillover" to J&T—J&T undertakes more than half of the parcel volume of this platform.

The aftermath of the battle fought by J&T Express and Pinduoduo is still there, and the cooperation market with TikTok Shop is generally believed to have a great possibility of continuing this explosive growth.

Besides the Southeast Asian market, according to EchoTik data, TikTok achieved a GMV of approximately 15 billion USD in 25Q2, with operating data in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia increasing by more than 1-2.5 times quarter-on-quarter, while the Mexican market surged by 877% quarter-on-quarter. It can be foreseen that J&T Express may enjoy the single volume dividend.

On the other hand, "infrastructure first" builds a cost barrier. Unlike domestic courier companies that "compete first and then build infrastructure," J&T leverages the efficiency competition experience accumulated in China and mature equipment and systems to adopt a "equipment + system + capacity" simultaneous investment strategy in Southeast Asia:

As of 2025Q1, it operates 52 sets of automated sorting equipment in Southeast Asia, with 5600 trunk vehicles, including 100 new self-owned vehicles invested in the first quarter, increasing to 1800 vehicles; with the "regional synergy" strategy (such as shared warehousing resources in Indonesia and Malaysia), the single ticket transportation cost is 15%-20% lower than local peers.

Moreover, J&T is currently fully upgrading from a "platform logistics provider" to a "full-scenario service provider." As an independent e-commerce enabler, besides binding mainstream e-commerce platforms, J&T Express is actively expanding local brands (such as Indonesian beauty brand Mustika Ratu) and non-platform business, with the proportion of non-platform parcel volume increasing to 35% in 25Q2 (28% in the same period in 2024), further diversifying single-channel risks, and has become another important engine driving Southeast Asian business growth.

This multi-dimensional penetration has allowed J&T Express to maintain its market share in Southeast Asia for five consecutive years, reaching 28.6% in 2024, although only 3.9 percentage points higher than the second place; based on the performance in the first half of 2025, it is expected to continue to hold the position of "courier leader" in Southeast Asia.

More importantly, as the first decade of globalization approaches, J&T Express has successfully quickly replicated this template to more regional markets.

As of May 2025, its global network covers 13 countries, with 238 large transfer centers, over 11,900 trunk services, and 337 sets of automated equipment, continuously improving the self-operated and franchise service network.

Behind this rapid expansion is the feedback result of J&T continuously enhancing its own operational quality. As of May, J&T Cloud Warehouse has covered 12 countries and regions worldwide, with the number of warehouses doubling in less than a year, a 12-hour customer response rate of 99.9%, a 24-hour outbound rate of 99.52%, and an inventory accuracy rate of 99.7%, verifying the operational quality.

The performance in key markets is particularly impressive:

In Mexico, except for deserts and uninhabited areas, the logistics network covers 98.8% of postal codes, with 17 transfer centers, 1200 service outlets, a daily delivery capacity of 700,000 orders, and supports over 20,000 e-commerce and overseas brands through same-city collection services;

Although J&T started late in Brazil, the coverage rate has reached 100%, with a daily processing volume of 1 million orders, 13 transfer centers, and over 10,000 operational vehicles supporting the network, with plans to build 1500 terminal stations by the end of the year, sinking to towns;

In the Middle East Saudi market, J&T has 2 large sorting centers, over 2000 self-owned vehicles, and 3000 employees, processing 120,000 orders daily, with its customs clearance company operating for four years achieving the fastest 24-hour customs clearance for some categories in Saudi Arabia, leading the industry in efficiency.

From Southeast Asia to Latin America and the Middle East, J&T is transforming the "Southeast Asian gene" into the competitiveness of the global logistics network with "rapid coverage + efficient operation" dual-wheel drive.

**The "Stable Market Battle" under Anti-Involution**

Although Southeast Asia and new markets like Mexico are J&T's "growth engines," the Chinese market is still its basic market—with a total parcel volume of 13.99 billion pieces in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and an average daily volume of 76.9 million pieces, continuously strengthening the scale effect.

In the context of "anti-involution" becoming an industry keyword, J&T Express's strategy has long been inclined towards the leading mindset, shifting from "grabbing market share" to "increasing profits."

Automation rate should be a core part of leading logistics players practicing long-termism, achieving extreme operational efficiency while balancing market stability and profit growth.

To this end, J&T Express has increased the construction of main control stations, with over 32,000 stations deployed in the Chinese market by the end of 2024, improving delivery efficiency and promoting the development of scattered customers. The number of automated equipment at outlets increased by 80% year-on-year in 2024, with 17 new self-built transfer centers invested in 25Q1.

Ultimately, through deep cooperation with Pinduoduo and Douyin e-commerce, its market share in China remains in the top five, at 11.3% in 2024; and the single ticket cost in the Chinese market decreased by approximately 11.8% to 0.30 USD, successfully releasing a large profit space, achieving a significant annual turnaround for the first time, with adjusted profit of 150 million USD in 2024.

After the release of operating data, the strong rebound in J&T Express's stock price is essentially a revaluation of its "three-market synergy" strategy by the capital market:

Although the growth rate in the Chinese market has slowed down, the "stable profit" attribute has been revalued; the Southeast Asian market is exploding at the right time, with growth expectations continuously revised upwards; the new market is still in the investment period, but the "option value" is accumulating, especially the explosion of TikTok Shop in Mexico has made the capital see the possibility of "replicating the Southeast Asian model."

**Conclusion**

From China's "efficiency deepening" to returning to Southeast Asia's "native advantages," and then to the "option realization" in new markets, J&T's story has surpassed the regional limitations of traditional courier companies' "market share competition."

When the capital market uses a 73% increase to price this "three-market synergy," what is implied behind it is not only the growth of a company but also a reflection of the reconstruction of the global e-commerce and logistics industry—in this era where "increment is harder to explore than stock," whoever can seize the growth dividends of different markets can redefine their boundaries.

CITIC Securities also believes that considering multiple factors, the industry's price competition from January to May has strengthened year-on-year but has a bottom in the future, recommending exploring leaders in the express delivery segment market volume increase, focusing on companies with clear competitive barriers and strong profit growth certainty in domestic segments and the Southeast Asian market.

Source: Hong Kong Stock Research Society

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