--- title: "Pinduoduo's shoes have all dropped." type: "Topics" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/32145524.md" description: "The tariffs and state subsidies have now been finalized. Moving forward, it will be a gradual upward process for Pinduoduo. $PDD(PDD.US) 1. Tariffs: With the EU Parliament abolishing the €150 tax-free policy last Friday, both U.S. and EU tariff issues have been settled. Compliance is not a constraint but a new starting point for TEMU. The EU's comprehensive tariffs are approximately 20-30% (slightly varying by country, including tariffs, VAT, and parcel handling fees). This level of taxation is entirely manageable for Temu. The profit margins of merchants and the platform are slightly affected..." datetime: "2025-07-23T14:38:24.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/32145524.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/32145524.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/32145524.md) author: "[25号观察](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/13849785.md)" --- > 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/32145524.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/32145524.md) # Pinduoduo's shoes have all dropped. The tariffs and State Subsidies have now been settled. From now on, Pinduoduo will gradually rise. $PDD(PDD.US) 1. **Regarding tariffs, with the EU Parliament canceling the €150 tax-free policy last Friday, both the U.S. and EU tariff issues have been settled.** Compliance is not a constraint but a new starting point for TEMU. The EU's comprehensive tariffs are approximately 20-30% (varying slightly by country, including tariffs, VAT, and parcel handling fees). This level of taxation is entirely manageable for Temu. While the profit margins of merchants and the platform are slightly affected, customs clearance may extend logistics times by a few days. In the U.S., the fully managed tariffs, initially threatened at 120%, were reduced to around 50%, a tactic often used by Trump. A 50% tariff is also acceptable, given TEMU's inherently low prices. Part of this tariff applies industry-wide, so the impact is minimal, with the price gap between fully managed and Amazon narrowing by only 10%-15%. TEMU's fully managed business is now rapidly recovering, and U.S. marketing efforts have resumed. **Resolving tariff issues and restoring logistics in July-August is crucial for TEMU, as September marks the back-to-school season, followed by Black Friday in November and Christmas in December—peak sales periods.** The U.S. and EU account for about 70% of TEMU's GMV and are the most important profit sources, with the remaining 30% coming from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Once the tariff issues in these two key regions are resolved, other regions will not pose problems. 2. **The most intensive phase of State Subsidies has passed, and their impact on Pinduoduo's domestic e-commerce subsidies will gradually diminish.** Last Q4 subsidized home appliances, and this Q1 focused on phones and computers. Although subsidies will continue, their impact on the e-commerce industry will wane. Consumers have already purchased what they needed, and subsidies are less effective in driving other categories. In home appliances and electronics, Pinduoduo initially lagged behind competitors but compensated with heavy subsidies, offering lower prices at the cost of profits. This factor will no longer be a major concern. Pinduoduo's support for merchant ecosystems will be a long-term effort. While competitors aggressively expand into food delivery, Pinduoduo has a rare respite to refine its platform. Additionally, Meituan's exit from the market has handed over a segment to Duoduo Grocery. As long as Pinduoduo avoids rushing into instant retail, it should remain stable. 3. Warren Buffett advises us that investing requires: > Buying good companies at reasonable prices. But good companies are rarely cheap. When do they become affordable?—During short-term shocks. No good company's stock price rises indefinitely. Even Nvidia corrected to around $90 in April, offering a buying opportunity. Key distinctions must be made: **Is it a long-term good company? Is the short-term shock external or internal? Does it affect the company's competitive landscape, advantages, or business model?** If the company remains fundamentally strong, these are just bumps on the road. Such opportunities are chances to profit. Returning to our earlier valuation discussion: domestic net profit of ¥100 billion, 10x P/E, ¥1 trillion market cap, equating to around $100 per share. This is likely Pinduoduo's floor. **What is Pinduoduo's valuation ceiling? That's subjective.** Domestic e-commerce GMV is now over ¥4 trillion, compared to Taotian's ~¥8 trillion, leaving room for growth. Pinduoduo can likely outpace the industry for 3-5 years. Temu's valuation isn't yet factored in. With $70-80 billion GMV this year versus Amazon's ~$700 billion (growing at ~10%), Temu could realistically reach 40-50% of Amazon's GMV long-term. As for valuation, it deserves some premium. Net cash of over ¥400 billion is also unaccounted for. In five years, cash reserves could approach the current market cap. Over the next five years, Pinduoduo is likely to be the top internet stock with the highest upside potential. ### 相關股票 - [PDD (PDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PDD.US.md) ## 評論 (1) - **Joe Livermore · 2025-07-23T15:59:48.000Z**: Chinese concept stocks have been doing well recently.