---
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37464866.md"
description: "The process of building the investment portfolio in 2026 is quite different from previous years, mainly because I found it difficult to identify new stocks that meet my satisfaction in terms of win rate and odds, and are worth a large position from my circle of competence. In terms of results, the opening portfolio of 2026 doesn't seem to have changed much from the closing positions at the end of 2025.Overall, as briefly mentioned earlier, considering the combined effects of the election year, the change of the Federal Reserve chairman, and the typical strong government cycle, I think the overall capital policy environment for U.S. stocks will be more optimistic than in 2025 (hopefully no misjudgment). On the Hong Kong stock side, new stocks keep draining liquidity. Overall, I allocate 7:3 to U.S. stocks and China concept stocks. From the trend of interest rate changes, it doesn't seem advisable, but in the medium to long term, I think the cost of interest rates is acceptable relative to absolute returns. Specifically for U.S. stocks, gold, Bitcoin, financial innovation, oil and gas, etc., are still not my strengths. I might occasionally speculate on the sidelines, but they won't be included in the portfolio. XBI and LABU have rebounded enough, so I won't allocate them in 2026. Instead, I'll focus on AI.1. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) , $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)  , and $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)  are still the absolute main large positions. The market consensus is that Alphabet is leading overall but not cheap, NVIDIA is quite controversial, and TSMC's geopolitical risks are hard to handle. Personally, I think Google's recovery is complete, but there's still about 30% room for improvement. I think NVIDIA is at a low point. In fact, it's now a competition between two major alliances: Google vs. NVIDIA+OpenAI. My view is that they will repeatedly outperform each other and eventually both grow. TSMC is the most stable, with its newly expanded capacity and 2nm mass production ensuring enough growth. As for geopolitical risks, I don't consider them. If the risks materialize, I think other stocks within my circle of competence won't be safe either.2. This year, AI undoubtedly needs to focus on application ROI and Agents. Overall, I favor 2B scenarios > 2C scenarios and predict the most successful AI coding scenario, where Anthropic's lead will shrink. Apart from big players, the certainty of new players in this part is still unclear. The experience of independent applications like Cursor and Manus under the encroachment of LLM models is quite thought-provoking, and I have many ideas to expand on later. In terms of allocation, this is where 2026 differs most from 2025, but the overall position isn't high because it still doesn't feel very clear. Specific names include Apple, PATH, FIGMA, and ServiceNow."
datetime: "2025-12-31T06:05:41.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37464866.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37464866.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37464866.md)
author: "[晓风 morning_wind](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/6620864.md)"
---

> 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37464866.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37464866.md)


# The process of building the investment portfolio i…


### 相關股票

- [Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DXYZ.US.md)
- [ServiceNow (NOW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NOW.US.md)
- [Direxion S&P Biotech Bull 3X (LABU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LABU.US.md)
- [Alphabet (GOOGL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GOOGL.US.md)
- [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSM.US.md)
- [Alphabet - C (GOOG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GOOG.US.md)
- [Apple (AAPL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPL.US.md)
- [NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDA.US.md)

## 評論 (15)

- **大大大威少 · 2025-12-31T17:13:31.000Z**: Bro, someone is badmouthing Meta, saying it's the American version of Baidu and will only get worse in the future... What's the basis for this??
  - **hello2025** (2026-01-02T23:43:14.000Z): Nonsense. One does search, the other does social media. They are completely unrelated. Social media has strong network effects and is not easy to switch.
- **秋焰之心 · 2025-12-31T10:55:09.000Z**: 🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆🎆
- **差佬的交易员 · 2025-12-31T09:38:18.000Z**: l love u
- **王泽发马泽发 · 2025-12-31T09:21:49.000Z**: Brother Feng, I want to open a position in Google now. How much should it drop to be suitable?
- **wdim223 · 2025-12-31T07:18:23.000Z**: How do you view Tesla, rocket, and PLTR?
  - **晓风 morning_wind** (2025-12-31T08:06:35.000Z): The valuation is too expensive and doesn't fit my system.
  - **wdim223** (2025-12-31T08:07:42.000Z): Okay, thanks
- **理小存 · 2025-12-31T06:50:03.000Z · 👍 1**: There is fig😊😊
- **Andy zhou · 2025-12-31T06:40:24.000Z**: Thanks for sharing, bro! ☕☕
- **花火038 · 2025-12-31T06:26:41.000Z**: Brother Feng is the best
- **晓风 morning_wind · 2025-12-31T06:13:48.000Z**: 3. At the hardware level, we remain optimistic that memory will still be a long-cycle process stage this year, and supply-demand disorder will persist for a long time. Korean stocks cannot be allocated, so we independently allocated some $Micron Tech(MU.US)4. For Chinese concept stocks, we mainly se
- **吃包子 · 2025-12-31T06:08:43.000Z**: Boss, how much are you planning to add to Google?
  - **youthbye** (2025-12-31T08:52:35.000Z): It was possible to start building at just over 290 a few days ago
- **石来运转 · 2025-12-31T06:07:23.000Z · 👍 1**: mark