--- title: "Seize the last two trading days to avoid international market volatility during the long Spring Festival holiday. Putting your year-end bonus into money market funds and short-term bonds is a good way to celebrate the New Year." type: "Topics" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38721114.md" description: "Background: A tug-of-war between strong data and policy expectations, with interest rates fluctuating within a range. Last night (02/11), the U.S. Department of Labor released the January non-farm payroll data, showing an increase of 130,000 jobs, better than the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%. This strong data has reshaped the market's assessment of the interest rate path. The FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen to only about 8%, and the probability of a cut in June has been revised down to around 50%. U.S. Treasury yields are fluctuating within a range, reflecting the market's repricing of the Fed's policy pace. Viewpoint:..." datetime: "2026-02-13T08:27:52.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38721114.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38721114.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38721114.md) author: "[泰康资产管理（香港）](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/13049407.md)" --- > 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38721114.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38721114.md) # Seize the last two trading days to avoid international market volatility during the long Spring Festival holiday. Putting your year-end bonus into money market funds and short-term bonds is a good way to celebrate the New Year. Background: Strong data and policy expectations are in a tug-of-war, with interest rates experiencing strong range-bound fluctuations. Last night (02/11), the U.S. Department of Labor released the January non-farm payroll data, showing an addition of 130,000 jobs, better than the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%. This robust data has reshaped the market's assessment of the interest rate path. The FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen to only about 8%, and the probability for June has been revised down to around 50%. U.S. Treasury yields are fluctuating within a range, reflecting the market's repricing of the Fed's policy pace. Viewpoint: How should we view the "130K+4.3%" data? On the surface, this data is a clear signal that the economy is not entering a recession, and it also provides the Fed with confidence to delay rate cuts. However, it also presents a dilemma for the Fed. The Fed's core tasks are only two: controlling inflation and stabilizing employment. Controlling inflation often requires cooling the economy (maintaining higher interest rates), which may push up the unemployment rate; while stabilizing employment tends to stimulate the economy (cutting rates), which can easily fuel inflation. This dilemma is precisely the main reason for the repeated interest rate decisions and constant market volatility since 2025. Beyond the one-time data, the trend is more important. Considering the data that has been significantly revised downward over the past few months, this report, while showing "superficial strength," indicates that the underlying labor market still needs time to consolidate. This also makes the Fed more inclined towards "delaying rate cuts" rather than "not cutting rates," maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Strategy Suggestion: Slow rate cuts, "short-term bonds" offer lower volatility. At a time when the market is anxious about delayed rate cuts, for investors positioned in short-term bonds, it is actually a moment to preserve gains. Based on the above background and viewpoint, under the current changing landscape of "slow rate cuts," short-term bonds possess excellent defensive attributes—short duration brings smaller price fluctuations while still offering relatively attractive coupon income. When market calls for rate cuts were high at the end of last year, we remained steadfast in using short-duration bonds as the core of our investment, because the investment team's core logic has always been: in an uncertain environment, prioritize seeking certainty at the short end of the bond curve. Now, facing the Fed's policy shift since the beginning of the year, the valuation correction of tech stocks, and this unexpectedly strong economic data from the labor market, each market fluctuation has become a severe test of the team's investment capabilities. Conclusion: Discipline, insight, and a long-term, steady investment philosophy. These fluctuations once again confirm the forward-looking vision and steady execution of our investment team. In an environment of repeated rate cut expectations, adhering to a short-term bond trading strategy not only effectively reduces portfolio volatility but also provides clients with predictable returns. This is precisely the core investment capability of the management team in finding "certainty" for investors amidst uncertainty.   Disclaimer Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is as of the document's release date. The above content is for reference only and is intended for general reading by clients of Taikang Asset Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. ("Taikang HK"). 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