---
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39244113.md"
description: "Regarding real estate, everyone should stop fantasizing about a V-shaped reversal.The current situation suggests a high probability of another 2-3 years of a downturn. To put it bluntly, housing prices in 2026 will still be halfway down the mountain. Rents falling for 19 consecutive months is the reason housing prices can't hold up.Moreover, the underlying logic of market rescue has changed. It's no longer about massive demolition and construction but about the government stepping in to buy properties. The goal is to stubbornly reduce the inventory digestion cycle to within 18 months, even starting to repurchase old, dilapidated second-hand properties to forcibly revitalize and improve demand.The winter for private real estate developers isn't over yet. Apart from a very few who have rendered great service, the fate for most is bankruptcy or market exit. In the future, this industry will basically see state-owned and central enterprises eating the meat, while private firms can only scavenge for bones in operations and management.The three new models are essentially plugging funding holes. Things like lead banks and project closed management are all to prevent developers' headquarters from siphoning off lifeline funds, ultimately forcing everyone to jump into the pit of selling completed properties.The recovery in the second-hand housing market in March was purely an illusion of trading volume for price. The quote index in the leading data has already turned downward again. A high turnover rate doesn't mean stable prices. Jumping in now is just helping others get out of their positions.The era of super profits in real estate has completely ended. All the current policy fine-tuning is just laying a cushion for a hard landing. In this historic-level downturn cycle, not making unnecessary moves is the real hard truth."
datetime: "2026-03-13T09:40:22.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39244113.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39244113.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39244113.md)
author: "[浩浩荡荡](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/19784218.md)"
---

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# Regarding real estate, everyone should stop fantas…