--- title: "Leapmotor: Can its overseas blockbuster model really hit 1 mn units and 'lead' China's new EV upstarts? ---" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39284893.md" description: "The latest results were solid. They again highlight Leapmotor's consistent, steady operating discipline." datetime: "2026-03-16T13:57:14.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39284893.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39284893.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39284893.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/dolphin.md)" --- > 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39284893.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39284893.md) # Leapmotor: Can its overseas blockbuster model really hit 1 mn units and 'lead' China's new EV upstarts? --- Leapmotor (9863.HK) released its Q4 2025 results after the Hong Kong close on Mar 16 Beijing time. The print was solid, underscoring the company's consistent operational discipline, with key takeaways as follows: **1\. Revenue in line; ASP still down QoQ on mix and promos:** Revenue came in at RMB 21bn (+56% YoY), broadly in line with market expectations. However, ASP continued to decline QoQ due to heavier promotional activity in Q4 and a further mix shift downmarket, with lower-priced B- and T-series taking a higher share. **2\. GPM edged up QoQ:** Management had guided that ramped-up promotions would offset scale benefits, keeping GPM flat QoQ. Yet Q4 GPM still ticked up by ~50bps to 15%, likely driven by a) ongoing cost-down through platformization and in-house parts, b) scale benefits, and c) higher 'other income' lift to margins such as carbon credit revenue tied to faster overseas sales (Q4 recognition estimated to double vs. Q3). **3\. Opex: higher sales spend, restrained R&D and admin:** Q4 sales expense was RMB 1.3bn, up sharply QoQ (+RMB 350mn) on heavier ad spending and dealer network expansion. R&D and G&A were well managed, both down QoQ; despite parallel investments in intelligence, deeper in-house components, and D/A series model development, R&D fell slightly by RMB 20mn QoQ to RMB 1.19bn, indicating high R&D efficiency. **4\. OP and NP both improved QoQ:** Operating profit was RMB 220mn, up RMB 170mn QoQ. Despite heavier sales spend, disciplined R&D and G&A, improving GPM, operating leverage from volume, and higher investment income from JVs lifted the bottom line to RMB 360mn, beating the Street by RMB 120mn. **Dolphin Research view:** Overall, Leapmotor delivered a decent, in-line Q4. While management had guided flat QoQ GPM as stronger promotions offset scale, margins still rose slightly QoQ, reflecting robust cost-down capability and incremental contribution from carbon credit revenue as overseas sales accelerated. **More importantly than this print is the market's expectation for 2026:** **① Q1 2026 mix to skew lower with heavier promos; GPM likely under pressure:** In Q1, Leapmotor sold 60k units in Jan–Feb (Avg. 30k/month), sharply down vs. Q4's Avg. 67k/month, with YoY growth of only 19%. This was mainly due to: a. Channel destocking ahead of the 'A10' SUV launch in Q1 2026; b. Pull-forward demand into Q4 2025 ahead of the new 5% NEV purchase tax policy effective 2026; c. Lower trade-in subsidies as the 2026 scheme shifted from fixed amounts (2025) to a proportional subsidy, reducing support for sub-RMB 150k models. Although the trade-in policy took effect on Jan 1, 2026, local subsidy rollouts were uneven in timing (e.g., Hubei on Jan 15; Jilin on Jan 17), prompting some consumers to delay purchases. To shore up Q1 volumes, the company increased promotions and offered purchase tax protection. The low-priced T03's share in the mix continued to rise (from 11% in Q4 to 27% in Jan–Feb 2026), pulling ASP lower. Coupled with volume declines weakening scale benefits, we expect Q1 GPM to remain under pressure. That said, higher export mix (Jan–Feb 2026 exports of 24k units; export share up from 14.6% in Q4 2025 to ~40%) should partially cushion margin pressure. **② Beyond the seasonal trough in Q1, the 2026 full-year outlook:** Leapmotor plans to roll out four new models and two facelifts in 2026, broadening the lineup. This is expected to support both brand and volume expansion. a. Higher-end D-series (RMB 200k+): This is key to brand and mix upgrade, featuring six core technologies including large-battery range extenders, a 1000V high-voltage platform, and 1280 TOPS AD chips. The first model, the full-size SUV 'D19', will launch in Apr 2026, followed by the 'D99' large MPV. b. Volume A-series: The compact SUV 'A10' (launching in Mar) and the small hatchback 'A05' target the RMB 100k segment, serving as the main volume drivers. c. B-series facelifts: Annual refreshes for B01/B10 are expected in Q2 2026. Management guided 2026 sales of 1.0mn units (exports 100k–150k; domestic 850k–900k). If achieved, net profit could reach ~RMB 5bn (Net margin ~5%). **The market's main debate remains whether Leapmotor can nearly double sales, with three key concerns:** **a. Tighter policy backdrop:** The reinstated 5% purchase tax on NEVs in 2026 and proportional trade-in subsidies (reducing effective support for sub-RMB 150k models) may dampen demand, particularly in Leapmotor's core price bands. **b. Harsher competition:** In the RMB 100k–200k segment, 2026 will bring new model cycles from Geely, Great Wall, XPeng, and others. Competition is entering a 'zero-sum' phase as the marginal lift from ICE-to-EV and foreign-to-domestic substitution fades. **c. High base for growth:** Raising sales from ~600k in 2025 to 1.0–1.1mn implies ~+68%–84% YoY growth, versus industry growth decelerating to ~+5%–15%. The bar is high. **Dolphin Research believes that despite the challenge of near-doubling volumes, Leapmotor has structural advantages that could deliver upside surprise:** **a. Export certainty is high among NEV newcomers:** Backed by channel and brand leverage from its Stellantis partnership, Leapmotor continued to scale its overseas network in Q4. By end-2025, overseas outlets had reached ~900, with ~800 in Europe, and B- and A-platform products align well with Europe's demand for affordable small EVs, supporting export visibility. Capacity build-out is on track: the Europe CKD plant targets Oct 2026 SOP (first model B10), with the matching battery pack plant slated for mass production in Jul 2026. The Malaysia KD project is progressing well, and the company is assessing capacity expansion in South America using Stellantis' facilities. A localized 'channel + capacity + supply chain' footprint underpins the 100k–150k export target in 2026. Jan–Feb 2026 exports of 24k already represent 16%–24% of the full-year export target. Management sees limited risk to meeting the 100k–150k export goal. **b. Vertical integration supports cost control amid rising industry costs:** Self-developed content covers ~65% of vehicle COGS, with deep control of core e-powertrain (ex-cell), AD, and cockpit. The company aims to lift in-house ratio to 80% by 2026 and bring cells in-house, further reducing supplier reliance and enhancing cost control, enabling high value-for-money models and sustained outperformance in cost-down. **c. Carbon credit revenue recognition:** Under Europe's emissions regime for 2025–2027, Leapmotor's EU sales can generate carbon credit revenue (agreement signed in Jun 2025). This is largely high-margin income (cf. Tesla), lifting both revenue and GPM, with a transaction cap of RMB 1.5bn. **d. Potential to monetize technology licensing:** Current tech licensing is mainly with FAW. If Leapmotor scales licensing of its E/E architecture to more OEMs and turns it into a recurring revenue stream, valuation multiples could have further room to expand. On a conservative case (2026 total sales of 800k, +34% YoY; exports 150k, +100% YoY; domestic 650k, +23% YoY) and applying 0.8x–1.0x P/S, we derive a fair value range of RMB 70bn–88bn. This framework balances execution risk with identifiable drivers such as exports, cost control, and diversified profit sources. Against the current market cap of ~RMB 55.9bn, implied upside is ~+25%–57%. This suggests that even under a conservative scenario below the company's aggressive guidance, Leapmotor offers attractive optionality and a margin of safety at the current valuation. **Detailed analysis follows:** **I. Q4 GPM edged up slightly QoQ** With unit sales already disclosed, investors focused on auto GPM. Management had guided flat QoQ GPM as heavier promotions would offset scale benefits. Actual Q4 GPM was 15%, up ~50bps QoQ and slightly above guidance, mainly on continued cost-down and higher carbon credit revenue as exports surged (Q4 est. RMB 500mn+ vs. Q3 RMB 250mn). _PS: Leapmotor reports revenue under ① auto revenue and ② service & other, but does not disclose quarterly splits; we analyze at total revenue level._ **Per-vehicle economics (incl. service and other income):** **a) ASP at RMB 105k, down QoQ:** Q4 ASP was RMB 105k, down RMB 7k QoQ. Despite higher carbon credit recognition, the realized ASP still fell on mix and promotions. ① Heavier promotions: Multiple local state subsidies faded early in Q4. Because 2025 state subsidies were uniform in amount, the relative support was higher for lower-priced models, so the fade hit low-end demand more. Leapmotor stepped up terminal discounts on older C- and T-series models. Newly launched Lafa 5 also came with competitive purchase subsidies, which directly pulled down ASP. ② Ongoing mix downshift: In Q4, the higher-positioned C-series fell 7ppt QoQ to 49%. Lower-priced B- and T-series rose by 5.3ppt and 1.8ppt to 40% and 11%, respectively, dragging ASP. ③ Higher export share boosted carbon credits: Q4 exports were 29k units, with export mix up 4.6ppt to 14.6%. Faster exports lifted high-margin carbon credit recognition (Q4 est. RMB 500mn+ vs. Q3 RMB 250mn). Export models typically enjoy higher pricing due to fewer promotions than domestic sales. But Q4 exports were still led by the low-priced T03 (47% of exports), diluting the uplift to ASP, and the carbon credit increase could not fully offset the domestic mix drag. **b) Unit cost at RMB 89k, with scale driving further cost-down** Q4 unit COGS was RMB 89k, down RMB 7k QoQ. Key drivers were: a. Strong sales momentum with volumes up 16% QoQ to 200k units, lowering per-unit fixed amortization; b. Sustained cost-down via high commonality and vertical integration: ~88% parts commonality and a high share of in-house components enabled scaled production and continual unit cost reduction. **c) Unit GP at RMB 16k, roughly flat QoQ** Unit GP was RMB 16k, essentially flat QoQ. Despite ASP pressure, ongoing cost-down lifted GPM slightly by ~50bps to 15%. **II. Sales expense surged, while R&D and G&A were restrained** Leapmotor continues to pursue full-stack in-house development, while rapidly scaling dealer channels to prepare for B- and A-platform volume. Sales expense rose significantly QoQ, but R&D and G&A both declined QoQ. **1) R&D: focused on intelligence, vertical integration, and new models** Q4 R&D was RMB 1.19bn, down RMB 20mn QoQ and below the market's RMB 1.26bn expectation. Despite a slight pullback in absolute spend, efficiency remained high, concentrating on new model development, in-house systems, intelligence, and platform capability. a. New models: In Q4, the flagship D platform was unveiled, showcasing six core tech pillars including large-battery range extender, 1000V high-voltage platform, and 1280 TOPS AD chips. The platform is key to brand and mix upgrades; the first model 'D19' full-size SUV will launch in Apr 2026, followed by the 'D99' large MPV. b. In-house components and vertical integration: Self-developed content covers ~65% of vehicle COGS, enabling deep control of core e-powertrain (ex-cell), AD, and cockpit. The target is to lift in-house ratio to 80% by 2026 and bring cells into the in-house scope, further reducing external reliance and enhancing cost control, a key reason for sustained outperformance in cost-down. c. Intelligence: Leapmotor is committed to an end-to-end foundation model roadmap and is investing in VLA (vision-language-action). The company aimed to realize end-to-end city NOA by end-2025; current core models support city memory navigation and highway NOA, with further catch-up underway, and seeks to complete its AD foundation model by end-2026 to reach best-in-class capability. d. Platformization and standardization: Leapmotor's highly standardized battery platform design uses far fewer SKUs than peers, lowering supply chain and manufacturing costs. The in-house Leap 3.5 architecture (A/B/C/D platforms) achieves ~88% parts commonality, shortening new model cycles by ~25% vs. the prior generation and reducing vehicle R&D spend by ~40%, while scale procurement further cuts unit costs. **2) Sales expense: QoQ surge driven by heavier ads and channel expansion** Q4 sales expense reached RMB 1.30bn, well above the market's RMB 1.03bn estimate and up RMB 350mn QoQ. The overshoot reflects simultaneous domestic channel deepening, overseas footprint expansion, and brand marketing in support of the aggressive 2026 global sales target. **a. Domestic channels: accelerated lower-tier penetration for volume models** Leapmotor is expanding its retail network faster than expected, focusing on tier-4/5 cities. In Q4, domestic outlets rose by a net 84, accelerating from +60 in Q3. By end-2025, domestic stores totaled 950, in line with management's annual target. The company plans to expand to 1,500+ outlets in 2026, implying ~+550 net adds vs. +255 in 2025. This lower-tier push and rapid build-out aim to seed sales and service touchpoints for the B-series and the A-series targeting the RMB 100k segment, a pre-investment to support the 2026 push toward 1mn domestic sales. **b. Overseas: Europe-focused, with capacity and channels landing in tandem** Channels: By end-2025, overseas outlets reached 900, including 800+ in Europe, 50+ in APAC, and 30+ in South America, making Europe the core overseas battleground. Capacity: The Europe CKD plant site has been finalized and targets Oct 2026 SOP (B10 first; B05 trial run in Jun 2026 and SOP in 2027). The Malaysia KD project is on track, and the company is evaluating a South America plant leveraging Stellantis' sites. Battery pack plants supporting B10 and B05 have been sited; plant revamps are underway, with first pack trials planned for Apr 2026 and mass production in Jul 2026. For 2026, export sales are guided at 100k–150k, with 70%–80% from Europe, and B- plus upcoming A-platform models fit Europe's demand for high-value compact EVs, enhancing export visibility. Leapmotor International, the JV, delivered annual profitability in 2025, contributing ~RMB 670mn in investment income. Q4 operating profit was RMB 220mn, up RMB 170mn QoQ, as higher sales expense was offset by disciplined R&D and G&A, better GPM, volume leverage, and higher JV investment income. Bottom-line net profit reached RMB 360mn, beating market expectations by RMB 120mn. **Dolphin Research past articles:** **Mar 10, 2025 earnings take '**[**Leapmotor: A dark horse comeback, is the 'mini Li Auto' on a tear?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27961692?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t27961692&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)**'** **Mar 11, 2025 '**[**Leapmotor (Trans): 2025 sales target of 500k–600k units**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27977546?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t27977546&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)**'** Aug 15, 2024 earnings take '[Leapmotor: Revenue and GP both missed; can overseas turn the tide?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/23190788?channel=t23190788&invite-code=4NOXYT&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)' Aug 16, 2024 call notes '[Maintain 2024 sales of 250k, full-year GPM of 5%](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/23209253?channel=t23209253&invite-code=4NOXYT&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)' May 17, 2024 earnings take '[GPM flipped from positive to negative; can overseas 'grind' a way out?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/21175728?channel=t21175728&invite-code=4NOXYT&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)' Mar 25, 2024 earnings take '[GPM keeps rising; can Leapmotor lead overseas?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/20137052?channel=t20137052&invite-code=4NOXYT&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)' Mar 26, 2024 call notes '[Full-year GPM to stay at 5%–10%](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/20142687?channel=t20142687&invite-code=4NOXYT&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)' Oct 16, 2023 earnings take '[GPM turned positive; is Leapmotor finally crossing the survival line?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/10230972?channel=t10230972&invite-code=4NOXYT&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share)' Oct 17, 2023 call notes '[GPM outlook improving; is the investment opportunity here? (Q3 call notes)](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/10236996?channel=t10236996&invite-code=4NOXYT&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share)' Aug 25, 2023 earnings take ['Leapmotor: GPM still can't turn positive; when will the Xiaomi of autos start to lead?'](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/9364191?app_id=longbridge) Sep 29, 2022 deep dive ['Leapmotor: After a 30% post-IPO plunge, is the 'Redmi XPeng' a trap or a real opportunity?'](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/3482580?app_id=longbridge) Risk disclosure and disclaimer: [Dolphin Research Disclaimer & General Disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### 相關股票 - [LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/09863.HK.md) - [ZEEKR Intelligent Tech (ZK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ZK.US.md)