--- title: "ATAT: Retail Boom — Is the 'Haidilao' of Hotels Smiling Again?" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39311865.md" description: "Operating leverage kicked in, driving a sharp profit jump" datetime: "2026-03-17T14:04:26.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39311865.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39311865.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39311865.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/dolphin.md)" --- > 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39311865.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39311865.md) # ATAT: Retail Boom — Is the 'Haidilao' of Hotels Smiling Again? Pre-mkt on Mar 17, 2026 (Beijing time), Atour (ATAT) released its Q4 2025 results. Overall, the quarter was solid, with revenue in line. **Faster retail growth and operating leverage drove a profit beat vs. Street.** Specifically: $Atour(ATAT.US) **1) Hold price, manage volume; RevPAR slightly beat.** On the core KPI RevPAR, Q4 came in at RMB 336 per room-night, down 0.4% YoY with the decline continuing to narrow. **With Atour dialing back promos in the off-season and S/X higher-end mix rising, ADR swung back to positive after two years of declines and beat expectations,** while OCC softened seasonally and was mediocre. **2) Higher mix of 'Qingju'.** On openings, Atour had a net add of 67 in Q4, taking the total store count past 2,000, **with Atour 4.0 (Jianye) and Qingju as the main drivers.** Although the company deliberately slowed openings in the off-season, **implied signings trended up QoQ vs. Q3; Dolphin Research believes franchisees accelerated year-end signings of Atour 4.0 (Jianye) to capture spring corporate travel.** **3) Retail remained in high gear.** By segment, hotel revenue rose 23% YoY in Q4, remaining steady. Retail grew 50% YoY; per channel checks, **Atour Planet’s conversion from Douyin live and Xiaohongshu seeding hit record highs in Q4, reaching many non-hotel customers,** **and with Q4 being peak season for down/temperature-regulating duvets, Dolphin Research believes the GMV mix of temperature-regulating duvets increased, lifting retail above expectations.** **4) Profitability at a near 3-year high.** Benefiting from a surge in higher-ticket, higher-GPM retail products, **Q4 GPM expanded by 130bps YoY,** while S&M and G&A ratios fell on operating leverage. Ultimately, **Adj. EBITDA reached RMB 710mn, up 61% YoY, beating Street consensus (RMB 2.34bn).** **5) 2026 guide: +20% to +24%.** The guide broadly matches the market’s +21% to +22% growth view. **Dolphin Research takeaways:** First, on the hotel core, corporate travel per-diem budgets tightened. Based on checks, the industry ran aggressive promos in Q4 to protect OCC, such as 'half-price weekends' and 'multi-night discounts', with ADR at mid-scale and above down ~3%–5% YoY. **Atour delivered ADR growth against the tide via strict price discipline and higher mid-to-premium mix, offsetting the seasonal OCC dip,** **which in our view validates brand stickiness (customers pay for value, not just low price) and shows Atour can avoid the low-price volume trap.** On the faster-growing retail segment, looking to 2026, near term, January official Douyin GMV reached RMB 160mn, +67% YoY. **Versus +37% in Dec, growth re-accelerated MoM, suggesting penetration is still in a rapid expansion phase.** Back-of-the-envelope: after three years of explosive growth in the deep-sleep memory pillow, traditional home textile leaders are making memory pillows a strategic core SKU to defend share against Atour Planet. **Dolphin Research conservatively assumes pillow GMV growth slows from +40% in 2025 to +20% in 2026, implying RMB 2.5bn GMV.** For temperature-regulating duvets, **current share is only ~5% (vs. ~18% for the deep-sleep pillow), and traditional peers have not moved quickly, leaving a more favorable competitive setup.** Dolphin Research assumes growth moderates from +86% in 2025 to +65% in 2026, implying RMB 1.4bn GMV. Other categories are assumed to double (non-pillow/duvet SKUs grew 150%+ over the past three years), totaling RMB 5.1bn, or 30%+ growth overall. **The market expects 2026 retail GMV growth of 25%–30%, so Dolphin Research sees a high chance of an upside surprise.** On valuation, based on our model, with 2026 adj. EBITDA of RMB 1.76bn and a 15x multiple, the hotel biz is worth RMB 30bn (incl. RMB 4bn net cash). **For 2029 retail, we assume profit grows 20%, with revenue of RMB 9.1bn and an 8% NPM implying RMB 730mn net income. Assigning 15x 2029E PE (vs. 12–15x for mature home textile leaders, with a premium for hotel+retail synergies) and discounting back to 2026 at WACC=11% from Dolphin Research’s DCF gives an RMB 8bn value for retail,** taking the combined valuation to RMB 38bn, ~15% upside from here. **Details below:** **I. Hold price, manage volume; RevPAR slightly beat** **1.1 ADR back to YoY growth** On RevPAR, Q4 stood at RMB 336 per room-night, down 0.4% YoY, with the decline narrowing on trend. On mix and quantity, **Q4 is a traditional off-season and Atour intentionally reduced promo intensity, so OCC fell seasonally.** On pricing, **with lodging supply growth slowing,** **corporate travel demand recovering and S/X premium mix rising, ADR grew YoY in Q4,** **offsetting minor OCC fluctuations; ADR turned positive, +1.5% YoY to RMB 426 per night.** **1.2 Implied signings up QoQ vs. Q3** On openings, Atour added a net 67 stores in Q4, taking the total above 2,000, **with Atour 4.0 (Jianye) and Qingju as the main contributors.** Specifically, after model validation, Atour 4.0 (Jianye) entered scaled rollout in 2025, with 49 adds in Q4 (73% of openings), **focused in core districts of tier-1 cities. Dolphin Research believes franchisees sped up year-end signings to capture spring corporate travel.** Positioning-wise, **Jianye targets both business and leisure,** meeting efficient work needs while offering a resort-like unwind. This is a differentiated play into a mid-to-premium blue-ocean segment, **also confirming the boom in experiential consumption.** **In addition, Qingju 3.0 is another growth engine, contributing 22% of new stores,** **driven by its compelling value-for-money.** Based on checks, Qingju 3.0 unit capex is optimized to RMB 100k–110k per room, with payback under 3 years, **appealing to franchisees in non-core locations seeking fast ROI and high space efficiency.** **II. Retail remains the growth pillar** **2.1 Group revenue broadly in line** Q4 revenue was RMB 2.79bn, +33.8% YoY, broadly in line. By segment, hotel revenue reached RMB 1.57bn, +23.2% YoY. **Continued RevPAR recovery lifted recurring management fee mix, and with the ramp of Qingju 3.0 and Atour 4.0 signings, Dolphin Research expects supply-chain sales to have risen temporarily in Q4 as well.** With fewer company-operated stores, owned-and-operated revenue was RMB 150mn, down 9.8% YoY. **Retail revenue was RMB 1.22bn, +43.9% YoY. Beyond Tmall, Atour’s Douyin live and Xiaohongshu seeding conversion hit record highs in Q4,** **reaching a large pool of non-hotel customers.** Q4 is peak season for down and temperature-regulating duvets, and Dolphin Research believes the GMV mix of temperature-regulating duvets increased, lifting Q4 basket size. **2.2 Retail GPM stepped up** Atour’s Q4 2025 GPM was 44%, up 140bps YoY. By biz, the higher mix of franchised hotels and the 3–6 month ramp for new franchises lifted labor costs, **trimming hotel GPM by 170bps to 35.8%.** For retail, **with a higher mix of temperature-regulating duvets and deep-sleep pillows and supply-chain cost collaboration, GPM jumped 390bps to 54.4%.** **2.3 Lower opex ratio; core profits beat** On opex, Atour continued to invest in Douyin/Xiaohongshu traffic in Q4 to build Atour Planet awareness, but scale drove S&M ratio down 50bps to 16.5%. G&A ratio rose temporarily on backend system upgrades and talent investment, yet **Adj. EBITDA reached RMB 710mn, +61% YoY, beating Street (RMB 2.34bn).** **Past Dolphin Research work on 'Atour':** **Deep dives** Jan 13, 2026: '[Atour: How the 'Haidilao of hotels' was forged?](https://longbridge.cn/en/topics/37769276?channel=SH000001&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN&share_track_id=8a20652a-cfc4-4477-9913-0ba73a6d06c2)' Mar 4, 2026: '[Atour: Fan-maker in hotels, cash machine in retail — how long can the 'fresh and chic' last?](https://longbridge.cn/en/topics/39055580?channel=SH000001&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN&share_track_id=3512af39-a39d-4b1e-ab41-4a38dffecc9f)' Risk disclosure and disclaimer: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### 相關股票 - [Atour (ATAT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ATAT.US.md)