--- title: "Geely Auto (4Q25 Trans): 2026 sales target of 3.45 mn units; aiming to be No.1 in China" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39336966.md" description: "On exports, the announced target is 640k units. Internally, the stretch goal is 750k." datetime: "2026-03-18T11:55:11.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39336966.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39336966.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39336966.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/dolphin.md)" --- > 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39336966.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39336966.md) # Geely Auto (4Q25 Trans): 2026 sales target of 3.45 mn units; aiming to be No.1 in China **Below is Dolphin Research's transcript of**$GEELY AUTO(00175.HK) **FY2025 earnings call. For the earnings take, see '**[**Geely in Hot Pursuit: Is BYD’s Throne Secure?**](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39336780)**'.** **I. Key takeaways from the results** 1\. **Shareholder returns**: The BOD proposes a HKD 0.5/sh dividend for 2025, up 52% YoY. The proposed payout totals HKD 5.39 bn, a record high, with core profit payout above 30% for five straight years. 2\. **Guidance**: 2026 sales target of 3.45 mn units (ZEEKR 0.30 mn, Lynk & Co 0.40 mn, Galaxy 1.55 mn, China Star 1.20 mn). Export target of 0.64 mn units (internal stretch 0.75 mn), and R&D capitalization ratio to remain above 40% in 2026. 3\. **Key financials**: Total revenue RMB 345.2 bn (+25% YoY). Vehicle revenue RMB 311.0 bn (+28% YoY), core net profit RMB 14.41 bn (restated +36% YoY; +70% YoY pre-restatement); GP RMB 57.3 bn (+25% YoY), full-year GPM flat at 16.6% with Q4 at 16.9%; core net margin 4.2% (+60 bps); total cash RMB 68.2 bn (+46% YoY). 4\. **Policy changes**: Lynk & Co was consolidated after the Feb 2025 acquisition; for comparability, 2024 core net profit was restated from RMB 8.5 bn to RMB 10.5 bn. R&D capitalization ratio rose from 31% in 2024 to 36% in 2025, with Q4 at 43%. **II. Details from the earnings call** **2.1 Management highlights** **1) Volume and brand performance** a. Full-year sales reached 3.025 mn units, surpassing the 3 mn mark for the first time, up 39% YoY. Market share was 10.05% (+27% YoY), rising for four consecutive years to a record high. b. Dual-engine growth: ICE at 1.337 mn units (+4% YoY vs. a 4.6% industry decline), and NEV at 1.688 mn units (+90% YoY). Within NEV, PHEV was 0.614 mn (+97% YoY) and BEV 1.074 mn (+86% YoY). c. **Galaxy**: NEV sales were 1.236 mn (+150% YoY), making it the fastest NEV brand in China to hit 1 mn annual sales. Xingyue remains No.1 across all passenger car categories in China; Galaxy E5 ranked No.2 among A-segment pure-electric SUVs; Galaxy M9 entered the top three among C-segment PHEV SUVs after launch. d. **ZEEKR**: Full-year sales were 224k units, with Q4 topping 80k for a record. The 9X exceeded 22k units in three months, leading China’s 500k-class large SUV segment; the 009 was the MPV champion above RMB 470k for two consecutive years. e. **Lynk & Co**: Full-year sales were 350k (+23% YoY), with NEV at 228k (+36% YoY), lifting NEV mix to 65%. Lynk 900 topped 50k in six months; Lynk 10 EMP exceeded 20k in three months. f. **China Star (ICE)**: Sales were 1.214 mn units, retaining the No.1 position among Chinese ICE self-owned brands for nine consecutive years. **2) Exports and globalization** a. Exports reached 420k units in 2025, with NEV exports at 124k (+200% YoY). In Jan–Feb 2026, exports exceeded 60k units for two straight months. b. In 2026, focus on three 150k-level markets (Western Europe, Eastern Europe, ASEAN) and two 100k-level markets (LatAm and Africa–Middle East–S. Asia). Export target is 640k (internal stretch 750k), with 121k delivered in Jan–Feb (+129% YoY). c. Overseas channel plan: 1,300 Geely-brand stores and 500 ZEEKR stores to open in 2026. d. The JV with Renault in Korea is progressing well and cooperation in Brazil has started. Proton’s share rose from 10% to over 25%, targeting No.1 in Malaysia and top 3 in ASEAN. **3) Intelligence and AD** a. The 'Smart Geely 2025' strategy was set in 2021 and a next-gen AI compute center was built, with a full-stack AI system established after integrating with Qianli Tech in 2025. b. Qianli Haohan GASD ADAS has obtained EU regulatory certification, enabling overseas deployment this year. Management expects Geely’s AD to reach the current level of Tesla’s FSD in 2026. c. The vehicle showcased at NVIDIA GTC was a Geely, and the two sides announced a broad AI collaboration. d. The AI compute alliance has reached 23.5E flops, ranking No.1 among Chinese automakers. The future '1+2+N' super-agent model will use a single brain coordinating the driving, cockpit, chassis and power domains. **4) Premiumization and super-hybrid** a. ZEEKR 9X orders remain strong; delivery lead time has shortened from 20+ weeks to 11–14 weeks, targeting eight weeks. The 9X GPM is close to 40%, and ZEEKR’s Q4 GPM reached 23%. b. ZEEKR 8X opened pre-orders on Mar 16; 10k deposits were placed in 38 minutes (notarized). Orders topped 30k within 48 hours, featuring the world’s first full-stack 900V hybrid HV architecture, tri-motor megawatt hybrid drive and a 4S-grade Haohan AI digital chassis. c. The super-hybrid redefines China’s NEV hybrids, requiring an advanced three-electric system paired with a high-efficiency engine to build a foundational moat. **5) Integration and synergies (Taizhou Declaration)** a. ZEEKR privatization was completed in 2025 (announced May 7 and closed Dec 22), the first global stock-for-stock privatization across US/HK. Lynk & Co and ZEEKR integration unified all mid-/back-office functions, with a central R&D institute, unified procurement, and integrated manufacturing and sales channels. b. At the holding level, a strategic steering committee was formed and brands like Volvo, Polestar, Lotus and smart now have clear positioning with coordinated tech/product planning and shared procurement/manufacturing. **Procurement synergies between Geely and Volvo delivered RMB 5 bn in 2025.** c. Management stressed that when the Taizhou Declaration was announced, Chairman Li Shufu made clear that 'One Geely' centers on 0175. Tech assets will return and be consolidated into 0175 when appropriate. **6) Three-electrics and charging** a. **Short-blade batteries launched ahead of peers; the in-house 95 kWh 'Shield Gold' battery supports 12C charging (10%–80% in 7 minutes), an industry high, with energy density of 179 Wh/kg, also best-in-class.** b. Megawatt fast-charging was deployed early in 2021, and China’s first 800V ultra-fast charger was installed. Self-built network now has 2,103 stations and 10,212 chargers across 215 cities (1,216 MW fast-charge stations, 5,468 piles), with 50k+ chargers planned over five years. c. **12C and 6C products will be installed on 15+ models in 2026.** **7) Energy diversity and sustainability** a. A full-stack pathway spans ICE–HEV–PHEV–BEV–methanol. Gen-5 methanol tech cuts cost to RMB 0.2/km and enables cold starts at −40°C. b. The i-HEV smart HEV will be applied across ICE models in 2026, taking fuel consumption into the 3L/100km era. c. Five-year decarbonization goals are exceeded, with per-vehicle life-cycle emissions down 25.5% vs. 2020. It is the first Chinese company selected for S&P Global’s Sustainability Yearbook (global edition). **2.2 Q&A** **Q: Outlook for overseas in 2026? Is competition turning into a red ocean? Where is the biggest growth? Are geopolitics and raw-material inflation risks or opportunities for NEVs?** A: Exports were 420k in 2025, including 124k NEVs (+240% YoY). 2025 laid the groundwork for exports, optimizing mix and marking the first year of NEV export acceleration, and in 2026 we will prioritize resources for international, deepen local capacity, and push products, supply chains and brands/tech abroad with market-specific strategies. Exports reached 121k in Jan–Feb 2026, up 129% YoY and already ahead of a doubling pace. **We guided 640k units publicly, while the operating team’s internal stretch is 750k, or nearly +80%.** Export roadmaps by brand are clear: China Star will take domestic hits like Boyue, Xingyue L and Emgrand global; next month we will unveil the all-HEV i-HEV strategy. Galaxy will globalize E5, Xingyue and new models; Lynk & Co will strengthen Europe using Volvo resources across 08, 01-gen and Z20 NEV products; ZEEKR 7X will sell in Korea and other markets, while 009 already tops the luxury MPV charts in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. **On raw materials, AI has pushed memory prices higher, but we have strategic partnerships with Samsung and ChangXin, securing priority access and pricing. For commodities, we lock prices with suppliers, and the biggest cost lever is scale—Geely Holding’s 4 mn+ units give strong purchasing power. In the Middle East, our Saudi exposure is sizable and stable; we have no business in Iran, so impact is minimal.** **Q: What cost synergies have emerged post-Taizhou Declaration?** A: The Declaration set five pillars—focus, integration, synergy, prudence and talent—which were fully rolled out last year with solid results. **At Geely Auto, Lynk & Co and ZEEKR were combined, unifying all mid-/back-office functions, restructuring resources, establishing a central R&D and a centralized procurement system, and integrating manufacturing and sales channels, which reduced costs and boosted efficiency. Given the short time frame, the 2025 P&L does not fully reflect the synergy yet, with more to show in 2026 and beyond.** At the holding level, brands share platforms, core parts/modules and global capacity. Geely’s rapid advance in safety owes much to Volvo, and **procurement synergies reached RMB 5 bn last year.** ZEEKR 9X/8X driving dynamics also benefited from Lotus. Multi-brand synergies are Geely’s unique edge not easily replicated by other Chinese peers. Overseas, partnerships with leading global automakers bring complementary strengths. International brands contribute capacity, supply chains, talent and channels, while Geely adds NEV electrification, intelligence and vehicle architectures, achieving win-win outcomes. For example, the Renault JV in Korea is performing well, Brazil is advancing, and the Horse powertrain JV with Renault and Volvo produces 7–8 mn units a year globally, enabling scale and cost advantages. **Q: Drivers of the 30 bps QoQ GPM lift in Q4? How much did ZEEKR premiumization contribute, and how much did raw-material inflation weigh? What drove the RMB 1.5–1.6 bn QoQ increase in R&D in Q4, and what are the 2026 R&D and capitalization outlooks?** A: Q4 GPM reached 16.9%, above the full-year 16.6%, mainly on mix upgrade. **ZEEKR sold 80k units in Q4, about 9.5% of Q4 sales vs. 7.5% for the full year, a 2 ppt lift, with 9X contributing 22k. ZEEKR’s Q4 GPM was 23%, showing early benefits from premiumization.** **Commodity inflation had some impact in Q4 but was manageable. First, the supply chain is experienced in hedging; second, scale will absorb much of the pressure. Looking to Q1, 9X deliveries should hold around 20k with ramping capacity, and Q1 GPM should not be below Q4.** On R&D, quarterly spend was around RMB 4 bn in the first three quarters and rose to RMB 5.9 bn in Q4, up roughly RMB 1.6 bn QoQ. **The key driver was a deliberate shift to expense more R&D: capitalization was ~31% in 2024, rising to 36% in 2025 (+5 ppts), with Q4 at 43%. This aligns with investor feedback to improve profit quality, and we plan to lift it further to keep capitalization above 40% in 2026.** **Q: With 'Smart Geely 2025' delivered, what are the priorities in the upcoming five-year (2030) strategy?** A: Launched in 2021, 'Smart Geely 2025' built one network and three systems (smart tech ecosystem plus smart energy, smart manufacturing and smart services), laying the AI foundation. We invested heavily in three-electrics and intelligence, putting the compute center into service in 2022, and grew from 1.32 mn sales in 2021 to 3.02 mn in 2025, with NEV mix at 55.8% (60% domestically), meeting strategic goals. Four priorities to 2030: **1) Intelligence**: Beyond automation, AI will be the core long-term edge, with continued investment and higher talent density. At CES we unveiled models like GASD; 9X runs an end-to-end VLA model integrating lateral and longitudinal control for a more human-like, reassuring experience. We will build a '1+2+N' super-agent with one brain coordinating driving, cockpit, chassis and power for a truly intelligent entity. **2) Premiumization**: ZEEKR, Lynk & Co, Galaxy and China Star cover luxury tech to mainstream NEVs, a comprehensive brand architecture among Chinese OEMs. ZEEKR 8X took 30k+ pre-orders in 48 hours, and 9X remains a bestseller. **3) Globalization**: Shift from trade-led exports to full-stack local operations across R&D, manufacturing, supply, sales and service. ZEEKR, Lynk & Co and Galaxy will expand globally, leveraging partners under the holding umbrella (e.g., Renault, Proton) to accelerate. 4) Ecosystem: One ID will connect brand stores, merchandise and services; L4 Robotaxi tech will combine with CaoCao Mobility to extend mobility and in-car experiences. Software-defined vehicles will play a bigger role. **Q: Geely’s tech ecosystem is broad, but core assets (e.g., Robotaxi ops at CaoCao, AD software at Qianli Tech) are not in 0175. What is 0175’s role in the 2030 plan?** A: The ecosystem exists to maximize product competitiveness, which is the core. Integration with Qianli Tech enabled today’s AD progress and could reach Tesla FSD’s current level this year, and given AI’s pace, one OEM cannot do everything alone near term, so we must leverage external strengths while retaining control. In Qianli Haohan, looking through 0175, Geely holds 62%, balancing collaboration and control. Chairman Li Shufu already stated under the Taizhou Declaration that 'One Geely' centers on 0175, and when the time is right, these tech assets will return to 0175, as Geely has historically incubated externally and injected into the listco post-profitability. **Q: Is the 2026 export target conservative? With intensifying competition and many rivals refreshing lineups, what is Geely’s playbook and where will product strengths improve?** A: **We guided 640k exports and internally target 750k.** We delivered 121k in Jan–Feb, including 75k NEVs, and 2026 is a product-heavy year with many models developed to global standards, so NEV export growth should be rapid. In Brazil, the Renault partnership accelerates dealer channel release, and at Proton, a single model is outselling five to six rival NEV models combined. We are confident in the 750k stretch goal. On AD, large models are essential, requiring sustained compute, algorithm and talent investment. Relying on one company’s volume alone would be burdensome, so we adhere to three principles: tech leadership (backed by heavy investment), control (62% look-through stake in Qianli Haohan by 0175), and economics/scale (monetize by enabling the global auto industry to spread costs). For AI ROI, full-stack AI lifts R&D efficiency by ~30%, saving several billions annually on RMB 15–20 bn R&D spend. Three-electrics: we led with short-blade batteries, our in-house 95 kWh 'Shield Gold' pack supports industry-high 12C charging (10%–80% in 7 minutes) at 179 Wh/kg, and we started building MW fast-charge in 2021 with 2,103 stations now. 12C/6C products will be on 15+ models in 2026, and over 50k chargers will be deployed in five years. **Q: 0175 trades at ~11x PE. Does management see a disconnect between valuation and fundamentals?** A: 0175 has seen glory before; after Boyue launched in late 2015, the stock rose from a bit over HKD 2 to HKD 30 in about 18 months. Markets are fair; perceived deviations reflect differing views on company stages. I feel 0175 now resembles early 2016—investors are warming up to its outlook but lack consensus. **Geely’s tech profile far exceeds many auto peers, yet the market may not fully recognize it; as intelligent driving spreads across the lineup, valuation frameworks should change, and I expect core profit to reach record highs at most future results.** Once profitability and tech leadership are both confirmed, I have no concern over Geely’s value, and we are more confident than ever; time will drive a fundamental re-rating. **Q: What is the 2026 per-vehicle profit target? With better mix, scale, higher export margins and cost control, how much upside remains?** A: First, under 'One Geely' we expect a material reduction in opex. In early 2025, initial synergies already cut the G&A ratio by 17.1 ppts and R&D as a % of revenue by 13.5 ppts, with more to come as integration deepens. Second, on BOM costs (supply chain plus design), the drivers are tech leadership and scale. With 2025 sales up 39% vs. 2024, suppliers’ fixed-cost absorption improves and profit is shared across the value chain, ultimately strengthening product competitiveness. Mix will keep moving upmarket as 9X and the newly pre-sold 8X scale, and **9X GPM is near 40%.** While precise per-vehicle guidance is difficult, the upward trajectory is clear with premiumization and scale. **Q: How to think about intelligent driving investment? Efficiency gains are a plus, but compute and moat-building require more spend—what is the 2026 view?** A: Compute and talent are the two biggest buckets. **On compute, 10k cards cost about RMB 4–5 bn; Geely’s AI Cloud Power alliance has reached 23.5E flops, No.1 among Chinese OEMs. Future expansion will split between Geely for vertical large-model development and Qianli for mass-production compute, with clear roles and tight coordination.** **ROI matters most. The auto value chain is long and AI spend saves significant costs across it; full-stack AI can lift R&D efficiency by ~30%, shaving several billions off RMB 15–20 bn a year, and higher talent density is crucial to attract top AI experts.** As large models mature, many in-vehicle and even humanoid robot applications can reuse AD models, expanding cost savings and efficiency. **Q: Is the NEV goal to be global No.1? Also, any color on Dong Mingzhu’s purchase of ZEEKR 009?** A: **The 2026 sales target is 3.45 mn (Galaxy 1.55 mn, China Star 1.20 mn, Lynk & Co 0.40 mn, ZEEKR 0.30 mn).** We aim to be No.2 domestically in 2025 and strive for No.1 in 2026, while continuing to invest overseas to close the gap with benchmarks, recognizing autos are a marathon where user value matters most. On Dong Mingzhu’s purchase, she experienced the ZEEKR 009 as a guest on CCTV’s 'Dialogue' program and was impressed. She personally ordered three on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year via the program team, and during the Two Sessions several more were purchased, totaling nine 009s including her team, with standard large-customer discounts and no special terms. Chairman Li Shufu hosted a handover on Mar 12 in Beijing. She praised 'Great air-con by Gree, great cars by Geely,' emphasizing Chinese manufacturing’s commitment to innovation and quality; 9X and 009 buyers are discerning enthusiasts, and she is among the most insightful. **Risk disclosure and disclaimer:**[**Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### 相關股票 - [NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [Tesla (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/01211.HK.md) - [BYD Company (BYDDY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BYDDY.US.md) - [BYD (002594.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/002594.CN.md) - [BYD COMPANY-R (81211.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/81211.HK.md) - [BYD Company Limited (BYDDF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BYDDF.US.md) - [GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/00175.HK.md) - [GEELY AUTO-R (80175.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/80175.HK.md) - [GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED SPON ADS EACH REP 20 ORD (GELHY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GELHY.US.md) - [BYD HK SDR 10to1 (HYDD.SG)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/HYDD.SG.md) - [ZEEKR Intelligent Tech (ZK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ZK.US.md)