---
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39392112.md"
description: "Last night, the market briefly showed signs of speculation on a recession.Last night, the market briefly showed expectations for a recession, with two specific signals.First, funds flowed into US long-term Treasury bonds. The yields on their 20-year and 30-year long bonds fell while prices rose. Previously, during the inflation speculation, long bond prices fell along with the stock market and precious metals.Second, while crude oil prices surged recently, the US dollar index also rose because the speculation was also about inflation expectations. However, last night, the US dollar did not rise with oil prices; instead, it fell.These two points are the same as during the 2020 mask period and the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse financial crisis.This is a clear sign of speculation on long-term recession expectations. The fundamental reason here is the surge in oil prices. If oil prices remain at extremely high levels for a long time, the market will go through three stages.First, the inflation period, when prices soar but the economy can still operate normally.Then comes the stagflation period, when the economy and employment are already affected, but prices remain high.Finally, the recession period, when the economy almost stagnates, and prices can no longer be sustained.However, all of this is still in the early stages of market speculation. The probability of a recession is not high yet. It depends specifically on oil prices. If oil prices can be stabilized or even fall in the short term, then none of this will happen.$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)$Circle(CRCL.US)$United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)"
datetime: "2026-03-20T02:13:48.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39392112.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39392112.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39392112.md)
author: "[纳斯达克战士](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/12201158.md)"
---

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# Last night, the market briefly showed signs of spe…


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