---
title: "Mixue Group: Lucky Cup Rebounds, Has Snow King Bottomed?---"
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39477089.md"
description: "Lucky Cup to surpass 10,000 stores in 2H"
datetime: "2026-03-24T11:50:17.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39477089.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39477089.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39477089.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/dolphin.md)"
---

> 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39477089.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39477089.md)


# Mixue Group: Lucky Cup Rebounds, Has Snow King Bottomed?---

On the afternoon of Mar 24 (Beijing time), Mixue Group (2097.HK) released H2 2025 results. Overall, H2 performance was mixed: **revenue beat, but a lower GPM and higher admin expenses led core OP to come in slightly below street expectations**. $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK)

Key takeaways:

**1) Revenue kept growing fast.** Mixue posted H2 revenue of RMB 18.7bn (+32% YoY). **While softer delivery subsidies weighed on SSS growth, rapid store adds sustained a solid overall pace, with a slight HoH decel vs. H1 (+39%).**

**2) Lucky Cup surged against the tide.** Domestically, net adds were 7,075 stores in H2, **accelerating vs. H1**. **After a strategic reset, Lucky Cup expanded at 'lightning speed' in H2; based on channel checks, it contributed at least 4,000 of the net adds**. By region, **growth leaned on lower-tier markets (Tier-2/3 and below)**.

**Overseas stores fell by 266 vs. H1; Dolphin Research believes Mixue continued to prune overlapping, underperforming, and non-compliant locations in SE Asia**. In addition, **in Dec, Mixue officially entered N. America with simultaneous openings on both coasts in Los Angeles and New York**.

**3) SSS growth moderated.** The company did not disclose detailed store operating metrics. Based on channel checks and narrower delivery subsidies in H2, **Dolphin Research estimates low single-digit SSS growth, driven mainly by cup volume, with per-cup ASP roughly flat to slightly down**.

**4) GPM kept trending down.** On costs, **extreme weather pushed up key inputs like lemons and coffee beans more than expected in H2**. In addition, **a higher mix of delivery orders** further pressured margins, **resulting in a ~220bps decline in GPM to 30.7%**.

**5) Profit slightly missed the street.** On selling expenses, **the mature 'Snow King' IP and low-cost social traffic reduced reliance on traditional ads, with the selling ratio down 70bps to 6%**. Admin expenses were temporarily inflated by one-off integration costs tied to the Oct acquisition of 'Fresh Beer Fulu Jia'. Net profit reached RMB 3.21bn (+25% YoY), modestly below expectations.

**6) Financial snapshot:**

**Dolphin Research view:**

Broadly, **despite slower store openings and softer SSS for the core Mixue brand, the 'second curve' from Lucky Cup’s aggressive rollout kept top-line growth robust**.

First, for the core Mixue brand, per Dolphin Research’s estimates, **excluding Lucky Cup, new-store growth was only ~20%, implying an inevitable slowdown**, which was anticipated. **But SSS growth of ~2–3% trailed the sector’s ~5–7%, an underwhelming outcome**.

Mixue’s online revenue mix is roughly 30%, lower than peers, so weaker delivery subsidies likely had a smaller impact on SSS. **Dolphin Research believes the real driver was a lack of compelling winter products**:

**Given Mixue’s model prioritizes fast throughput and standardization with long shelf-life and easy logistics, winter demand skews toward freshly brewed hot drinks, which is less favorable to Mixue**.

Turning to the true upside surprise, Lucky Cup in H2 **not only achieved the '10k-store push' and became China’s third coffee brand to join the '10k-store club' after Luckin and Cotti, but also upgraded from lower-tier markets into Tier-1/2 cities**. In Dolphin Research’s view, beyond the category beta, two pillars stood out:

1) To fix prior product weaknesses, Lucky Cup built a 400-person marketing team interfacing directly with R&D and shared the R&D team with the core brand to speed idea-to-product. **Strategically, it avoided the milk-coffee battlefield dominated by Luckin/Cotti and differentiated with fruit coffee, filling a value gap and drawing strong consumer interest**.

2) On franchising, **Mixue stepped up Lucky Cup support in H2, shifting from broad-based subsidies to targeted incentives, covering both new and existing franchisees and key Tier-1/priority regions**.

**Valuation:** after the prior pullback, and factoring likely negative SSS in 2026 as subsidies fade, Dolphin Research cut its model. Assuming 2026 profit growth of 13% and net profit of RMB 6.7bn, the stock implies ~17x. Versus an estimated 3-yr EPS CAGR of 15%, this still looks rich. To preserve a margin of safety, Dolphin Research suggests waiting for <15x, or ~HKD 114.2bn mkt cap, before adding.

**Detailed earnings read-through below:**

**I. Revenue slightly beat the street**

In H2 2025, Mixue delivered revenue of RMB 18.7bn (+32% YoY). **While softer delivery subsidies trimmed SSS, rapid footprint expansion sustained healthy overall growth, with a mild HoH decel vs. H1 (+39%)**.

By mix, **franchise-related services declined by 40bps to 2.2%; Dolphin Research believes higher subsidies in H2 to attract Lucky Cup franchisees were the main reason**.

**II. Lucky Cup fueled a store-opening blitz**

Domestically, net adds were 7,075 in H2, **accelerating vs. H1**. **Post strategy reset, Lucky Cup expanded at 'lightning speed', contributing at least 4,000 net adds per channel checks**. By region, **incremental stores were concentrated in lower-tier markets**.

For the core brand, and per prior analysis, **Dolphin Research estimates ~3,000 new stores in H2 (+20% YoY), clearly slower than prior years**. As discussed in [Mixue Ice City: Lucky Cup’s 'unlucky' turn — is Mixue betting on the fields?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/30540072?channel=t30540072&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN), the high-tier city expansion dividend is fading, shifting the battlefield to lower-tier markets, so a slowdown for the core brand was expected.

Also noteworthy, **in Oct, Mixue spent nearly RMB 300mn to acquire 53% of Fulu Jia, marking its entry into fresh beer; by year-end, Fresh Beer Fulu Jia had ~1,800 stores**.

**The strategic intent is to build a 24-hour loop: morning coffee (Lucky Cup) – afternoon tea (Mixue Ice City) – evening beer (Fresh Beer Fulu Jia), extending scenarios and broadening the customer base**.

However, **fresh beer contains active yeast and is sensitive to temperature, time, and environment, making its supply chain hard to port from tea/coffee. Heavy reinvestment in cold-chain and production will be required**. The vision is attractive, but Dolphin Research stays cautious and will track execution.

**Overseas stores fell by 266 vs. H1; Dolphin Research believes Mixue continued to streamline overlapping, underperforming, and less compliant sites in SE Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam)**.

In addition, **in Dec, Mixue officially entered N. America with simultaneous openings in Los Angeles and New York**.

**III. Cup volume drove SSS growth**

The company did not disclose store-level KPIs. Based on channel checks and lower delivery subsidies in H2, **Dolphin Research sees low single-digit SSS growth, led by cup volume, with per-cup ASP flat to slightly down**.

**IV. GPM kept falling**

On raw materials, key lemon regions in Anyue (Sichuan) and Yunnan suffered late-spring cold snaps, frosts, and summer droughts, slashing fruit set and cutting national output by 30%–50% YoY. Major global producers (U.S., S. Africa, Turkey, etc.) were also hit, widening the global supply gap and pushing domestic prices higher; Anyue farm-gate lemon prices roughly doubled vs. 2024.

On channel mix, the rising share of delivery orders, which carry lower margins, also pressured group GPM. **GPM fell ~220bps to 30.7%**.

**V. Profit slightly missed expectations**

On selling, **a mature 'Snow King' IP and low-cost social traffic displaced traditional ads, bringing the selling ratio down 70bps to 6%**. Admin expenses were temporarily elevated by one-off integration costs from the Oct acquisition of 'Fresh Beer Fulu Jia'. Net profit was RMB 3.21bn (+25% YoY), **slightly below market expectations**.

**Longbridge Dolphin Research on 'Mixue Ice City':**

**Deep dives**

Jun 11, 2025: [**Mixue Ice City: a 'doubling' story not yet sweet abroad, nor easy to own**](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/30590952?channel=t30590952&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)

Jun 10, 2025: [Mixue Ice City: Lucky Cup’s 'unlucky' turn — is Mixue betting on the fields?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/30540072?channel=t30540072&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)

Mar 13, 2025: ['PDD of on-premise drinks' Mixue Ice City: what powers the 'Snow King'?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/28068033?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t28068033&invite-code=032064&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)

**Commentary**

Aug 28, 2025: [Mixue: lower-tier blitz, Lucky Cup’s comeback, and why the premium may be justified](https://longbridge.cn/en/topics/33403084?channel=SH000001&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN&share_track_id=4e113812-3908-4a16-bcc6-f295c96d2eed)

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