---
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39612348.md"
description: "Gao Shi's analysis of the upcoming situation in the Strait of Hormuz:"In addition to the existing carrier strike group, the United States is deploying approximately 2,500 Marine Corps soldiers to the region, and 1,000 soldiers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division are also about to arrive in the Middle East. Since such special forces are skilled at scalpel-like operations, all objectives point to seizing Iran's most important oil export hub, Kharg Island. Recently, the US has conducted over ninety precision strikes on the island, destroying its mines and missile storage facilities, but Donald Trump has deliberately avoided the island's core oil infrastructure. Furthermore, according to CNN, senior Pentagon officials are fiercely debating whether to launch a ground operation. So, will there be a war? Analyzing from Trump's transactional personality, we first conclude: seizing Kharg Island is his ultimate bargaining chip on the negotiation table, not his first choice, because an amphibious assault to capture the island would risk US military casualties, which does not align with Trump's transactional style of achieving maximum value at low cost. Its underlying logic is to force Iran to sign the ceasefire agreement proposed by the White House through substantive military preparations to seize your only economic lifeline. Therefore, behind the scenes, Trump will still communicate and negotiate through countries like Pakistan. If Iran's moderates can dominate the domestic situation, both sides are highly likely to compromise and reach a face-saving paper agreement by early April. However, if Iran's hardliners gain the upper hand and refuse to sign the agreement to maintain their tough image and deterrence against proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, will Trump order the destruction of Kharg Island or launch an operation to seize it? Thereby cutting off Iran's economic lifeline? I believe this probability is still not high, because destroying Kharg Island would cause Brent crude oil to soar to $150, directly triggering domestic inflation in the US and leading to a stock market crash, which Trump cannot bear. Although the island seizure operation might succeed, capturing the island is easy but holding it is difficult. Iran doesn't even need to use advanced ballistic missiles; just using extremely cheap mortars, mortar shells, rocket artillery groups, and swarms of suicide drones can saturate the fragile oil storage tanks and US military personnel on the island. Moreover, if Iran finds it has permanently lost the island, its underlying game theory logic would become 'If I can't have it, no one else can either.' The Iranian military would personally destroy its own former oil facilities, so even if the island is seized successfully, it would still be a bargaining chip for negotiations with Iran, not for long-term occupation. Therefore, Kharg Island is currently the core of the game between both sides, and the upcoming trend will determine completely different valuation and pricing logics for the financial markets.""
datetime: "2026-03-30T11:32:55.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39612348.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39612348.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39612348.md)
author: "[猫的名字叫奥利奥](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/15248623.md)"
---

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# Gao Shi's analysis of the upcoming situation in th…


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