--- title: "March 30th | Global Macro + In-depth Analysis of the US Stock Market" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39613355.md" description: "I. What is the global market trading today? Expectations for a de-escalation in the Middle East are heating up. The US-Iran negotiations have released some positive signals at this stage, and the market is starting to trade on the "risk cooling" logic: Crude oil surged then fell back, inflation expectations cooled in the short term, and risk assets (US stocks) got some breathing room. But note: This is currently just "improved expectations," not a substantial resolution. If the situation reverses, oil prices could still hit the market a second time. The Fed's path remains hawkish, but marginally softer. The market's current core game is still centered on interest rates: Expectations for a rate cut this year exist, but the timing is being constantly pushed back. Officials' remarks are generally cautious. Conclusion: Limited short-term downside..." datetime: "2026-03-30T13:18:35.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39613355.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39613355.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39613355.md) author: "[牛军开门](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/profiles/26692552.md)" --- > 支持的語言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39613355.md) | [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39613355.md) # March 30th | Global Macro + In-depth Analysis of the US Stock Market I. What is the global market trading today? Expectations for easing Middle East tensions are heating up. The US-Iran negotiations have released positive signals, and the market has begun trading the "risk cooling" logic: Crude oil surged and then fell back. Short-term inflation expectations have cooled. Risk assets (US stocks) have gained breathing room. But note: This is only an "improvement in expectations," not actual implementation. If there is a reversal, oil prices could still impact the market a second time. The Fed's path remains hawkish, but marginally easing. The current core market game still revolves around interest rates: Expectations for a rate cut within the year exist, but the timing is being pushed back. Officials' remarks are generally cautious. Conclusion: Limited short-term downside, but no real major positive either. \= The market has entered a "period of volatile pricing." Global capital is flowing back into the US tech sector. In an uncertain environment: AI Semiconductors Big Tech Remains a safe haven for capital. Typical performance: Capital is "huddling in core assets," not a full-blown bull market. II. Core Logic of the US Market (Key Points) The current S&P 500 is at a very critical position— A trend watershed area. Key level breakdown: 6720 → Short-term rebound high / resistance level. 6550 → Current core support level (bull-bear dividing line). 6250 → Final defense line (trend life-or-death line). III. Market Structure Analysis The current market's essence: Weak rebound + high-level volatility + sentiment repair. Specific performance: Positive news (negotiations) → Rally. But insufficient volume → Unable to break through key resistance. High-level capital begins to diverge. What does this mean? The market is not in a strong bull run, but rather: A "rebound propped up by news." IV. Three Possible Scenario Projections (Very Critical) Scenario 1 (Relatively Strong): Break above 6720. If the following occurs: Substantial progress in negotiations. Oil prices continue to fall. The Fed releases dovish signals. The market could: Directly enter a short squeeze and attack higher ranges. Scenario 2 (Main Volatility): Volatility within the 6550–6720 range. The most likely script. Performance: Cannot break above 6720. Cannot break below 6550. \= Back-and-forth churning + draining sentiment. Strategy: Day trading + position control + waiting for direction. Scenario 3 (Weakening): Break below 6550 → Test 6250. If the following occurs: Negotiations break down. Oil prices surge again. Interest rate expectations tighten again. The market will: Directly enter a wave of accelerated decline. 6250 = Final support level (life-or-death line). If broken below: The market may enter a mid-term adjustment or even a panic phase. V. Core Conclusion (For All Traders) This is not the main upward wave of a bull market. But rather: A volatile market driven by macro factors. You need to remember three sentences: If 6550 holds = The market still has chances for reversals. If 6720 isn't breached = Don't blindly chase highs. If 6250 is broken = Must defend. VI. Short-term Strategy (Key Points) On a pullback near 6550: Can gradually accumulate tech stocks (AI / Semiconductors) at low prices. Approaching 6720: Don't chase highs, consider reducing positions or day trading. If it breaks below 6550: Stay in cash and wait, confirm support at 6250. Stocks to watch today: Tesla, nvda, crcl LITE In summary: The current market's essence is not a rise, but rather A market "tugging" between positive news and risks. A truly major market move depends on: Whether geopolitical tensions truly ease. Whether the Fed turns dovish. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) ### 相關股票 - [Tesla (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) - [NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (TSLQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA-U (09366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/09366.HK.md) - [XL2CSOPTSLA (07766.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/07766.HK.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA (07366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/07366.HK.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [XL2CSOPNVDA (07788.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/07788.HK.md) - [XI2CSOPNVDA (07388.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/07388.HK.md) - [YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF (NVDY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF (NVDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [Broadcom (AVGO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [AMD (AMD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AMD.US.md) - [VG S&P 500 Grw (VOOG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOOG.US.md) - [Circle (CRCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRCL.US.md) - [Lumentum (LITE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LITE.US.md) ## 評論 (4) - **TZ9 · 2026-03-30T13:39:18.000Z**: Thanks bro, appreciate the hard work. - **牛军开门** (2026-03-30T13:46:02.000Z): Alright, buddy - **TZ9** (2026-03-30T13:50:58.000Z): This week doesn't feel easy to trade. The non-farm payroll is on Friday and the market is closed. Oil prices aren't coming down either. - **牛军开门** (2026-03-30T14:06:18.000Z): Take one step at a time, as long as you keep moving, there are opportunities