SpaceX 2Q26 First Take: This was SpaceX's first earnings release, and results were solid. Revenue continued to beat expectations, while losses narrowed faster, putting breakeven within sight. By segment:

1) Launch services: third-party launch volumes increased, with ASP and margins rising against the tide. Starship IFT-13 performed well overall.

Launch revenue was $960 mn, above the $870 mn consensus and up 29% YoY, driven by higher launch services revenue. External Falcon 9 commercial launches reached 10 in the quarter, vs. 7 in Q1 and 9 a year ago, as large customers added missions.

Per-launch pricing also rose, with implied ASP up from ~$54 mn last year to ~$65 mn. The increase primarily reflects a more favorable customer mix, with a higher share from large accounts.

On profitability, GPM improved by ~1,100 bps QoQ to ~66%. Despite expensing Starship test-flight costs (incl. hardware loss) through the launch P&L, margins still rose, supported by higher ASPs. This underscores SpaceX's ability to extract premium pricing given its dominant position and the lack of mature, low-cost alternatives.

On Starship progress, IFT-13 in Jul deployed the first batch of V3 satellites, validated Raptor in-space relight, and captured critical thermal protection system data. The booster was lost in a hard landing after partial engine relight failure, but as the second landing attempt for a V3 booster, the outcome was within a controllable iteration range.

2) Starlink: revenue topped expectations on stronger B2B/Gov., while user growth was broadly in line.

Starlink revenue was $4.29 bn, slightly above the $3.88 bn consensus, on B2B/Gov. strength. SpaceX has signed and activated in-flight Wi-Fi agreements with multiple airlines, and its Starshield unit secured a multi-year U.S. Gov. contract worth over $6 bn.

On B2C, Starlink users reached 12 mn, roughly doubling YoY. Net adds were ~1.7 mn QoQ, broadly in line with expectations.

Pricing remained stable (ARPU $66/month). In mobile, SpaceX secured rights to 65 MHz of spectrum in the U.S. (the former EchoStar 2 GHz band) and several global MSS licenses. While early-stage, SpaceX has effectively declared war on incumbent telcos, planning to launch V2 mobile satellites next year on the EchoStar 65 MHz band and build a terrestrial network to take share from AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

3) AI: revenue beat, with a sharp margin improvement.

AI revenue was $2.56 bn, above the $2.08 bn consensus, mainly as the compute lease with Anthropic (monthly fee $1.25 bn) began contributing. Margins improved meaningfully (GPM ~57%; OPM ~-49% vs. -115% expected), driven by premium pricing amid severe compute shortages. We estimate lease rates at ~$30–50 bn per GW, far above peers at ~$10–15 bn per GW.

Note that AI leasing contracts include a 90-day termination clause exercisable by either party. This creates inherent uncertainty in revenue visibility despite current strength.

Big picture, SpaceX's equity story resembles Tesla's: near-term performance is highly event-driven rather than earnings-driven, while a major lockup expiry in Aug 2026 could pressure the stock. The path forward hinges on key milestones: full Starship reusability, first mass launch of V3 satellites, whether Grok 5 exceeds expectations, and sustained signing of AI compute lease orders. $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $GS 2x Long SpaceX Dl ETF(SPAL.US) $SPCX 2X Short ETF(SNK.US)